Hazelnut prices stabilize after heavy losses as Turkey’s main buyer switches to kernels and TMO registrations reach 150,000 t. Concise outlook for buyers in EUR.
Prices
Delivered Central Europe (full truck, average offers) shows a largely stable picture week on week. Standard conventional kernels 11–13 mm are quoted at about EUR 8.76/kg DAP with no weekly change, while organic kernels 11–13 mm trade around EUR 7.55/kg (+0.04). Roasted whole 11–13 mm stand near EUR 10.50/kg (−0.03), and roasted 0–2 mm increased more markedly to roughly EUR 6.37/kg (+0.23). Hazelnut paste is indicated near EUR 5.77/kg (−0.04).
FOB Turkey spot offers corroborate this sideways-to-slightly-softer pattern. Recent quotes for conventional natural kernels 11–13 mm from Istanbul are about EUR 6.91/kg FOB, with 13–15 mm at roughly EUR 7.45/kg and roasted diced 2–4 mm near EUR 6.60/kg, reflecting some easing versus late August. Georgian natural 11–13 mm offered ex-warehouse Warsaw remain higher, around EUR 8.40–10.00/kg FCA for standard to large sizes, confirming that Georgia has largely lost the attractive discount it offered in the previous season.
Despite the recent uptick in some roasted fractions, the broader price performance still shows the depth of the prior correction: +1.66% over one week and +1.15% over the quarter, but around −40% over six months and nearly −90% over twelve months. Over longer horizons (3–10 years), prices oscillate around flat to moderately negative, underlining how extreme last season’s peak and subsequent collapse were.
Supply & Demand
The most important change in this campaign is the revised purchasing strategy of the dominant industrial buyer. Instead of starting the season with in-shell hazelnuts, it is initially sourcing natural kernels, with bids around 405–425 TRY/kg depending on quality and size. The targeted volume of 20,000–30,000 t (with 25,000 t as a realistic working assumption) adds substantial short-term demand for good kernels while deferring the company’s obligation to purchase 45,000 t of in-shell nuts to later in Q4.
At the same time, TMO has received registrations for roughly 150,000 t of in-shell hazelnuts for the 2026/27 season at a purchase price of 250–255 TRY/kg, based on 50% sound kernel content. How much of this volume will actually be delivered and accepted remains uncertain, as quality checks are strict. If TMO takes close to the registered amount, a large slice of physical supply would be removed from the free market, reinforcing a bullish undertone. However, rejected lots do not disappear; they re-enter the open market and swell the pool of lower-quality material, capping any rally in weaker grades.
Grower selling behavior is increasingly segmented. Many farmers in the eastern Black Sea region prefer to sell part of their harvest to TMO, allocate another part to the free market to cover immediate cash needs, and hold back a remainder in expectation of higher prices later in the season. This three-way strategy ensures that, despite the appeal of the state price, raw material continues to trickle into the open market, especially where liquidity constraints are tight.
Outside Turkey, Georgia faces weather-related challenges. Persistent rain in key growing zones has disrupted harvest and drying, with some local processors fearing yield losses of up to 30%, though more conservative estimates point to around 15%. Farmers are often machine-drying and storing nuts while they wait for better prices, but current achievable export levels do not meet their expectations. As a result, Georgia no longer offers a clear price advantage over Turkey, particularly for larger sizes, and struggles to compete even in small calibers that were aggressively discounted last season.
Azerbaijan, by contrast, reports good crop progress and generally solid quality, yet supplier price ideas remain comparatively high. European buyers therefore continue to concentrate on Turkey, accepting some quality compromises because the net price level is still more attractive. In this context, the fact that the market leader has not yet visibly committed volumes in Azerbaijan underlines that Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Georgia remain the primary tactical levers for industrial procurement.
Fundamentals & Quality
The kernel-versus-in-shell price relationship is currently the key fundamental driver. If the market leader were to buy in-shell nuts at the TMO price and then have them cracked and processed, standard 11–13 mm kernels would effectively cost it more than 500 TRY/kg. In contrast, free-market standard kernels are available near 400 TRY/kg. This arbitrage explains why the buyer has re-ordered the usual purchase sequence and is exploiting the discount on already processed kernels instead of paying the elevated TMO anchor price for raw in-shell material.
Raw hazelnut prices in Turkey now span a broad range reflecting quality. Very weak in-shell lots can be found near 150 TRY/kg, while large exporters quote mostly 175–185 TRY/kg. Following the market leader’s kernel tender, some suppliers have already raised their offers, and individual trades up to around 195 TRY/kg are reported. This indirect pull from kernels into in-shell prices hints that the new buying pattern may gradually tighten the raw market, at least for good lots that qualify either for TMO delivery or high-quality kernel production.
Quality is an increasingly decisive factor. In the coastal belt of the eastern Black Sea (Trabzon–Giresun), the early harvest has produced disappointing quality so far, while merchandise from mid and higher altitudes is expected to be better once it becomes available. Persistent rainfall has delayed drying and pushed the overall harvest schedule back by roughly 2–3 weeks compared to a normal year, as also reflected in later-than-usual official harvest windows for higher-elevation zones. This delay causes short-term shipment issues but also smooths the flow of goods, potentially preventing a classical harvest-time supply glut.
The size distribution of the crop is also shifting. Significantly fewer small kernels (e.g., 9–11 mm) are expected than in the previous season, narrowing the traditional discount between small, standard 11–13 mm and larger 13–15 mm kernels. For processors, this implies that the exceptional bargains seen in 2025 on small calibers are unlikely to repeat. However, hazelnut paste and certain small-kernel preparations remain relatively abundant due to last season’s carry-over and stocks of lower-grade kernels, keeping these processed products comparatively cheap.
Export-side fundamentals are still weak. Turkey’s hazelnut exports in the last season reached only about 197,000 t, far below the industry’s target of 300,000 t. Large carry-over inventories provide a comfortable buffer. Exports are further constrained by subdued global demand and the availability of alternative origins (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile, China, USA), even if not all of them are price-competitive at present. Meanwhile, exporters show little appetite to build speculative long positions because of high financing costs and market risk. Many players have already physically covered a large share of their forward sales—equivalent to roughly 90% of carry-over—removing urgent spot-buying pressure.
On the currency side, the Turkish lira has been surprisingly stable versus the euro in recent weeks, even as energy costs and expectations of further monetary moves by the ECB and Fed keep macro volatility elevated. For European buyers, this means that FX has not added another layer of uncertainty to hazelnut costings, and the main price drivers stay rooted in local Turkish fundamentals and state policy rather than exchange-rate swings.
Weather & Harvest Outlook
The 2026/27 Turkish crop outlook remains broadly favorable in volume terms, with various industry and official estimates converging in the 700,000–800,000 t in-shell range, despite localized quality problems in the eastern coastal areas. The delayed and rain-affected harvest has slowed deliveries but also spread arrivals over a longer period. Short-term forecasts for the Black Sea region point to continued unsettled, humid conditions, particularly in the east, which could prolong drying challenges for late-picked nuts but are unlikely to materially alter overall crop size.
In Georgia’s main hazelnut districts, the same wet pattern has hampered fieldwork and drying, reinforcing earlier concerns about local yield losses. Short-term weather outlooks show intermittent showers remaining in the forecast, which may further delay the completion of harvest on higher and more remote plots. However, by mid-September the bulk of physically recoverable crop is typically already in, so incremental weather-related production losses should be limited from here.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day View
- Short-term (next 2–4 weeks): Expect a slightly firmer tone on good-quality natural kernels as the market digests the market leader’s 405–425 TRY/kg bids and any materialization of its 20,000–30,000 t purchase program. Lower-grade in-shell and paste-related products should remain amply supplied and price-competitive.
- For industrial buyers: Consider covering nearby kernel needs in tranches, focusing on standard 11–13 mm and small calibers where price gaps versus TMO benchmarks and alternative origins remain significant. Avoid overextending coverage far into 2027 while the full impact of TMO intake and export demand recovery is still unclear.
- For origin sellers/exporters: Use any liquidity window around upcoming quarterly interest payments to reduce expensive stocks, especially in weaker qualities that TMO is unlikely to accept. Be cautious about building speculative longs given high financing costs and still-fragile demand.
- For users of paste and small fractions: Current oversupply of carry-over and downgraded kernels suggests that paste and finely roasted material will likely stay attractively priced; this is an opportunity to secure medium-term contracts at historically favorable EUR levels.
3-day regional price indication (directional, EUR basis)
- Turkey FOB (natural kernels 11–13 mm): broadly steady to slightly firmer; tightness emerging in better grades, but ample weaker material keeps the overall range anchored.
- Central Europe DAP (standard kernels and roasted goods): mostly unchanged, with a mildly bullish bias in roasted small fractions (0–2 mm; 2–4 mm) after the recent upticks.
- Georgia FCA (kernels 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm): stable to slightly softer, as origin struggles to command a premium over Turkish offers in the current demand environment.