Turkish Hazelnuts Hold Firm as TMO Floor Caps Downside

Export hazelnut prices in Turkey are broadly steady, with only marginal easing in some organic kernel grades despite historically high state support prices. A large crop, significant carryover and softer free‑market TL prices are capping further upside in EUR terms for now. Turkish hazelnut markets have transitioned from harvest to marketing with relatively calm price action. Organic FOB İzmir offers for kernels and processed product are holding close to recent highs, while conventional FOB Istanbul quotes remain stable to slightly firmer versus mid‑September. Strong TMO intervention prices in lira and expectations of a sizeable 2026/27 crop keep growers relatively well supported, but abundant carryover stocks and cautious European demand are preventing a repeat of last year’s sharp post‑harvest rally. Quality concerns in some Black Sea orchards and weather risks are being watched, yet near‑term fundamentals argue for a sideways to modestly firm EUR price profile.

Prices

Latest Turkish organic hazelnut offers FOB İzmir show a flat to slightly softer tone week on week: Organic Hazelnut Kernels 13–15 mm at 18.35 EUR/kg FOB, Organic hazelnut kernels 11–13 mm at 19.35 EUR/kg FOB, blanched roasted organic kernels at 22.90 EUR/kg FOB, and roasted chopped organic 2–4 mm at 22.41 EUR/kg FOB. Conventional Turkish kernels FOB Istanbul last updated mid‑September remain at 7.311 EUR/kg for natural 11–13 mm, 7.846 EUR/kg for natural 13–15 mm, 6.70 EUR/kg for roasted diced 2–4 mm and 6.00 EUR/kg for roasted meal, indicating a stable to mildly firmer structure versus late August.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, with exporters and industry referencing a crop estimate around 804,000 tonnes for the new season and a sizeable carryover near 150,000–175,000 tonnes from the previous year, pointing to ample exportable supply into 2027. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has set 2026/27 intervention prices at historically high TL levels, supporting farmgate returns but also encouraging farmer retention and slower selling, which in turn sustains a firm floor under kernel prices.

Domestic free‑market prices in major producing provinces have recently eased to around 190 TL/kg, reflecting the balance between strong TMO support and a well‑supplied market. Local trade sources highlight that Türkiye’s cost base is increasingly high compared with emerging hazelnut origins such as Chile, the United States, Georgia and Azerbaijan, limiting the scope for further price hikes in export markets where confectionery demand growth is modest and buyers are price‑sensitive.

Industry representatives in Sakarya report that the 2026 harvest is better than last season but still below the country’s full potential, with some quality problems due to brown marmorated stink bug damage in specific regions. European buyers, operating in a low‑inflation environment, are reluctant to accept sharp cost pass‑throughs, which encourages gradual, forward‑planned contracting rather than aggressive spot purchases at higher price levels.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals entering Q4 2026 are characterized by: (1) historically high TMO intervention prices setting a strong domestic floor, (2) a large overall supply picture when combining the new crop with carryover stocks, and (3) more competitive offers from alternative origins in USD terms. Together, these factors keep Turkish EUR‑denominated export prices firm but limit upward momentum for now.

Weather in the core Black Sea hazelnut belt (e.g. Ordu, Giresun, Sakarya) is seasonally mild with no severe events in the short‑term forecast. Hourly and 3‑day forecasts for Ordu indicate partly cloudy to clear conditions with moderate temperatures and light winds, and no significant rainfall or storms expected through the next 72 hours. With harvest largely completed, this benign pattern mainly aids drying and post‑harvest handling rather than yield formation.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–2 weeks): With TMO support, large supply and calm weather, Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR are likely to remain range‑bound, with a mild upward bias in conventional Istanbul FOB quotes if TL weakens further while exporters seek margins.
• Medium term (Q4 2026): Ample stocks and competition from other origins argue against an aggressive rally. However, any deterioration in quality issues (stink bug damage) or logistics disruptions in the Black Sea could quickly tighten premium grades, especially organic and large calibres.
• Buyer strategy: Food manufacturers with uncovered positions for late 2026–early 2027 may consider layering in coverage on current dips in organic kernels and monitoring free‑market TL prices versus TMO levels for potential further easing before year‑end.
• Seller strategy: Turkish exporters should focus on differentiated quality (low defect, traceable, organic) and flexible contract structures, as European buyers are likely to resist list‑price increases but may pay premiums for consistency and sustainability attributes.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

Based on stable TMO policy, current free‑market dynamics and benign weather in the Black Sea region, export price directions over the next three days are assessed as follows:

• TR – İzmir (organic kernels & processed, FOB): Sideways to fractionally softer, with small adjustments possible between product grades but no clear trend break.
• TR – Istanbul (conventional kernels, FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer, as earlier mid‑September increases consolidate and exporters test buyer acceptance at current levels.
• TR – Black Sea inland spot (Ordu/Giresun grower level, TL terms): Slight downside bias in free‑market TL prices versus strong TMO floor, but largely range‑bound in the very short term.