Georgian Hazelnut Prices Ease as Strong Regional Supply Caps Upside

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices are edging slightly lower, pressured by strong regional supply and soft nearby demand, while weather risks remain contained for now. Turkish FOB prices and robust global crop expectations are limiting any short‑term upside, leaving a mildly bearish to sideways price bias for the coming days. In the physical market, conventional Georgian hazelnut kernels FCA Warsaw are down by about EUR 0.05/kg week-on-week across main sizes, signaling modest but consistent easing. At the same time, Turkish FOB Istanbul kernels hover near recent lows, reflecting weak export demand and expectations for a larger 2026/27 crop, which together cap replacement costs for European buyers. Weather in western Georgia is seasonally warm to hot but broadly within the summer outlook, so immediate yield risk appears limited. Overall, buyers retain leverage in nearby negotiations, while growers face increasing pressure ahead of the new-crop marketing season.

Prices

All prices below are approximate and converted into EUR/tonne (EUR/kg in brackets) for comparison.

Georgian kernels retain a premium over Turkish material, especially for larger sizes and for EU‑delivered positions, but that premium has narrowed slightly as Turkish prices have softened on expectations of a large 2026/27 crop and sluggish exports.

Supply & Demand

Global supply signals are broadly comfortable. Recent industry analysis points to strong 2026 crop prospects in Turkey, the dominant exporter, alongside solid potential in alternative origins including Georgia and Azerbaijan. Weak Turkish export performance so far this season, despite still-elevated average export prices, underlines demand resistance at higher levels and has helped push spot offers lower.

For Georgia, earlier in the season exports were robust and growing in value, confirming its role as a competitive secondary origin for the EU. However, with European confectionery demand still only gradually recovering and some chocolate manufacturers experimenting with alternative nuts, nearby buying remains cautious. This keeps coverage mostly hand‑to‑mouth and encourages buyers to wait for clearer signals on new‑crop quality and Turkish state support prices.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Georgia)

Georgia’s official summer outlook for 2026 indicates temperatures about 1–2°C above the long‑term norm, with precipitation expected around or slightly below normal. For key hazelnut regions in western Georgia (Samegrelo, Guria, Adjara), this translates into warm to hot and mostly dry conditions through late July, generally favorable for nut fill and disease control if soil moisture remains adequate.

Short‑term forecasts for the next few days point to continued summer heat with only scattered showers, but no widespread extreme events currently flagged for western Georgia. Within this pattern, localized drought stress or isolated heavy storms cannot be ruled out, yet there is no clear trigger for an immediate bullish weather repricing. Growers should, however, stay alert for potential late‑July heatwaves which, combined with below‑normal rainfall, could begin to weigh on kernel size and quality if they persist.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Macro balance: Recent global estimates still show comfortable world hazelnut supply for 2025/26, with Turkey, Italy, Georgia and others contributing stable or growing crops.
• Turkish price leadership: Market commentary highlights ongoing pressure on Turkish prices due to weak exports and expectations of a sizable 2026/27 crop, while trade awaits the new intervention price from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) later this summer.
• Demand softness: European buyers remain selective, with some confectioners substituting other nuts, which tempers nearby demand and reinforces a defensive stance on coverage.
• Georgian premium under pressure: With Turkish offers competitive and logistics relatively smooth, Georgian kernels must justify their premium via quality or specific customer programs; otherwise, the price spread risks compressing further in the short term.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term bias (3–5 trading days): Mildly bearish to sideways for Georgian conventional kernels FCA EU, with modest further easing possible if Turkish FOB offers slip again and weather in Georgia stays benign.
• Buyers: For nearby needs, consider staggered spot buying rather than large forward coverage, using any intraday dips linked to Turkish selling as opportunities. Maintain some flexibility to extend coverage if weather in Georgia or Turkey turns notably drier or hotter.
• Sellers / growers: Given the current downward drift, avoid aggressive discounting; instead, focus on differentiating by quality (large sizes, low defects, traceability) and be prepared for potentially stronger interest once clarity emerges on the Turkish TMO support price.
• Risk factors to watch: Late‑July heatwaves or storms in western Georgia, any negative crop revisions from Turkey, and signals of stronger European industrial demand ahead of the autumn chocolate season.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

Directional view for July 22–24, 2026, based on current fundamentals and regional benchmarks:

Overall, barring a sudden weather or policy shock, hazelnut prices in the wider Black Sea region are expected to trade in a narrow range with a mild downward tilt over the next three days.