Georgian Hazelnut Kernels Ease as Turkish Supply Caps Upside

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices are drifting slightly lower at the start of September, pressured by a strong Turkish harvest outlook and broadly favourable weather in Western Georgia, with downside in EUR prices limited but still not exhausted. The price spread to Turkish FOB remains wide, keeping Georgia competitive in EU and regional markets but curbing any near‑term rally. Early‑September trading shows Georgian natural kernels FCA Warsaw down around 2–6% versus mid‑August, tracking the gradual advance of harvest and softer regional benchmarks. Turkey has completed the main harvest window in high‑altitude Black Sea districts, and exporters report solid export flows into September, reinforcing ample supply. Weather across Samegrelo, Guria and Imereti is seasonally warm and mostly dry with only light precipitation risks, supporting steady harvest progress and minimizing short‑term quality concerns. In this environment, buyers are negotiating slightly lower replacement costs, while sellers try to defend premiums over Turkish origin.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR/kg for comparability (using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR where applicable).

*Indicative, inferred from late‑August USD FOB kernel levels and a weaker lira; Georgian FCA still commands a roughly EUR 1.5–2.0/kg premium over Turkish standard kernels, in line with late‑August assessments.

Supply & Demand

Georgia’s 2025/26 hazelnut crop is projected broadly stable around 45,000 tonnes, according to recent global supply estimates, leaving the country a small but relevant player compared with Turkey’s 500k+ tonne harvest. Earlier in 2026, Georgian export prices had risen strongly year‑on‑year, averaging about 10 USD/kg (≈9.2 EUR/kg), but the current harvest‑time softening reflects normalization from those peaks.

Turkey has completed the official harvest window in key high‑altitude Black Sea regions (Giresun, Ordu, Trabzon, Samsun and Tokat) by late August, with new‑crop exports picking up into September. Export boards report active August shipments, confirming robust availability. As the dominant global supplier, this reinforces a ceiling on EUR kernel prices, particularly for mid‑calibre grades used by chocolate and confectionery industries across Europe.

Domestic farm‑gate prices in Georgia, tracked in GEL and USD, show an 11–12% year‑on‑year increase into September but have started to level off, with indicative farm‑gate levels around 1.61 USD/kg (≈1.48 EUR/kg) in‑shell. Strong export revenue growth earlier in the season supports grower margins, even as kernel prices at EU delivery points ease moderately from early‑summer highs.

Weather & Crop Conditions (GE)

Weather in Georgia’s main hazelnut belts (Samegrelo–Zemo Svaneti, Guria, Imereti) is currently supportive for ongoing harvest and post‑harvest drying. Forecasts for coastal Samegrelo (Poti/Nosiri area) over September 8–11 indicate warm, mostly dry conditions with daytime highs around 26–28°C and low precipitation risk.

In Guria (Grigoleti area), September temperatures for the coming days are projected in the mid‑20s°C with mild nights and only scattered showers, while Imereti sees similarly warm days above 22–26°C. These patterns favour steady field access, reduce mould risk and support kernel quality. Unless a late September rainfall spike materializes, weather is neutral‑to‑bearish for prices, as it underpins an orderly inflow of supply.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global balance: World hazelnut production in 2025/26 is projected slightly below the previous year but still ample at over 1.0 million tonnes, with Turkey, Italy, the US and Georgia all contributing to comfortable availability.
• Turkish floor prices: Turkish Grain Board (TMO) reference prices announced for the current marketing season keep farmer returns stable but do not suggest an aggressive stock‑building programme, pointing to continued export‑oriented flows and competition in kernel markets.
• Demand side: EU chocolate and confectionery demand is stable but not booming; processors are well covered into Q4 2026, favouring hand‑to‑mouth spot buying and a focus on origin arbitrage between Georgia and Turkey rather than volume expansion.
• Trade flows: Recent export performance shows Georgia expanding shipments to Italy, Spain, Germany and France, but pricing still follows Turkish benchmarks with a quality and logistics premium.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Bias: Mildly bearish to sideways for Georgian kernels FCA Warsaw, with further modest downside of 1–3% possible if Turkish FOB offers continue to edge lower and weather stays benign.
• Buyers (EU roasters, chocolatiers): Consider staggering purchases over the next 2–3 weeks, targeting price dips in 11–13 mm and 15+ calibres, while maintaining some flexibility in origin between Georgia and Turkey.
• Sellers (Georgian processors/exporters): Focus on defending premiums via quality and reliable logistics; locking in forward contracts for Q1 2027 at today’s levels may be prudent given the risk of a later seasonal rebound if Turkish pipeline tightens.
• Speculative participants: Scope for major rallies appears limited near‑term; relative‑value strategies (GE vs TR, conventional vs organic) look more attractive than outright long positions.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)

Over the next three trading days (September 8–10, 2026), we expect Georgian kernel prices to trade in a narrow range around current offers, with any additional weakness driven primarily by Turkish export competition rather than domestic weather or crop shocks.