Turkish Hazelnuts Ease Lower as New-Crop Pressure Meets Cautious Demand

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices have softened into early September as new-crop selling intensifies and buyers resist higher offers, while organic premiums remain wide but stable. Weather is broadly supportive for harvest completion in the Black Sea region, pointing to continued near-term pressure on conventional FOB values. A sharp week‑on‑week decline in Turkish natural kernels and small cuts in roasted material signal that the market is digesting a heavy physical flow just as industrial demand, especially in Europe, is in no rush to cover long positions. Government purchase prices and local free‑market quotes in Ordu and Giresun are anchoring growers’ expectations, but elevated interest rates and currency volatility are tempering speculative stock‑holding. With largely dry, warm conditions expected in the main producing provinces over the next days, logistics and drying should proceed smoothly, keeping short‑term supply ample. Downside for conventional kernels looks limited by official support levels, but upside appears capped until export buying becomes more aggressive.

Prices

FOB Istanbul prices for Turkish hazelnut kernels have moved lower over the past two weeks, especially for conventional natural grades, while organic kernels are broadly unchanged at high premiums. All prices below are approximate and converted from USD to EUR (≈0.92) for comparability.

*Previous price refers to the last quoted level around 24 August 2026.

Domestically, free‑market in‑shell prices in key coastal bourses such as Ordu and Giresun have recently traded around TRY 200–225/kg, clustering slightly above the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) intervention levels but showing day‑to‑day volatility as harvest deliveries accelerate. Converted to kernel‑equivalent and EUR, these values are broadly consistent with the modest softness seen in export‑oriented FOB kernel offers.

Supply & Demand

New‑crop harvesting in Türkiye’s Black Sea hazelnut belt is now in full swing, including higher‑altitude zones in Ordu and Giresun where official cutting dates run into late August. Early local reports point to generally good yields and quality, with no major weather‑related losses at this stage, supporting expectations of another large Turkish crop within the global context.

TMO’s announced in‑shell purchasing prices for the 2025/26 season, set in mid‑August and only modestly above last year’s levels, have disappointed many growers and reduced the incentive to hold back stocks aggressively. As a result, physical flows into both TMO depots and free market channels remain strong. On the demand side, major European confectionery buyers appear to be pacing their coverage, taking advantage of new‑crop availability while avoiding long commitments at the start of the season.

Fundamentals & Weather

At the global level, Türkiye remains the dominant supplier, accounting for roughly two‑thirds of world hazelnut exports and a substantial share of total production, with significant competition only from Italy, Chile, the United States and the Caucasus. While some competitor origins have expanded plantings, current international supply growth appears manageable, keeping Turkish kernel prices primarily driven by domestic policies and currency moves.

Short‑term, weather is supportive for continued harvest and drying across the Eastern Black Sea. Forecasts for the Trabzon region, a proxy for key producing provinces, indicate mainly dry to partly cloudy conditions with moderate temperatures and only light, scattered showers through the next several days, limiting any disruption to fieldwork and post‑harvest handling. This benign outlook suggests that supply pressure from fresh crop arrivals is likely to persist near term.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Conventional Turkish kernel prices in EUR terms are biased slightly lower as harvesting peaks and logistics run smoothly, while organic kernels are expected to remain firm given limited volumes and sticky premiums.
• For buyers: Consider layering in coverage on spot and nearby positions for natural 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm while prices are under harvest pressure, avoiding over‑extension on longer tenors until export demand and TMO buying pace are clearer.
• For sellers: Maintaining price discipline just above intervention‑equivalent levels in EUR looks prudent; aggressive discounts below current FOB ranges risk locking in low margins ahead of potential Q4 demand improvement.

3‑Day Directional Price View (Region: Türkiye, TR)

Assuming stable FX and no policy surprises, the following directional tendencies are expected for FOB Istanbul hazelnut kernels over the next three trading days:

• Natural kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Slight downward to sideways bias in EUR as harvest inflow remains strong and weather is favorable for drying.
• Roasted products (meal, diced): Largely sideways in EUR, with only modest follow‑through from lower natural kernel levels due to processing and contract lags.
• Organic kernels: Sideways; limited offers and committed specialty demand should keep EUR prices stable despite broader conventional softness.