Georgian Hazelnuts Gain Ground in EU as Prices Surge and Turkey Softens

Georgian hazelnuts are rapidly strengthening their position in the EU market, with higher volumes and sharply increased export prices, while Turkish conventional prices are easing on new-crop pressure. The result is a more diversified supply base for EU confectionery buyers, but also a widening price gap between premium origins like Georgia and more liquid Turkish kernels. The first half of 2026 confirms hazelnuts as the clear growth engine of Georgia’s fruit and vegetable exports to the EU, with Italy emerging as a dominant buyer and paying markedly higher prices for both shelled and in-shell product. At the same time, Turkish FOB kernel indications in late August and early September point to mild softness in conventional grades but resilience in organic and processed hazelnuts, keeping a firm undertone in the higher-quality segment. Against this backdrop, buyers must balance cheaper Turkish offers against increasingly strategic, higher-priced Georgian supply.

Prices

Georgia’s average export price for shelled hazelnuts to the EU surged from about EUR 7.14/kg to EUR 9.73/kg in the first half of 2026, a jump of roughly 36%. In-shell hazelnut prices climbed even more strongly, from around EUR 3.73/kg to EUR 6.21/kg, up about 66% over the same period.

By contrast, Turkish FOB kernel offers at the end of August show conventional natural kernels around EUR 7.0–7.5/kg, slightly softer than earlier in the summer, while organic and processed forms (roasted, blanched, diced) hold steady near EUR 18–23/kg. This leaves Georgian export prices for shelled kernels broadly in line with, or slightly above, high-quality conventional Turkish material, but below Turkish organic differentials.

Supply & Demand

In the first half of 2026, Georgian fruit and vegetable exports to the EU rose just over 16% year on year, from about 5,370 tonnes to 6,230 tonnes, with hazelnuts accounting for nearly all of the incremental growth. Shelled hazelnut shipments increased 18% to roughly 4,880 tonnes, while in-shell exports grew around 14%, and together these two products represented nearly 95% of Georgia’s total produce exports to the EU. Italy has become the leading EU destination for Georgian shelled hazelnuts with 1,951 tonnes, almost doubling its purchases (+92% year on year) and overtaking Spain (1,156 tonnes). France (482 tonnes) and the Czech Republic (433 tonnes) showed slight declines, as did Germany.

On the supply side, Georgia’s stronger EU position is complemented by signs of recovery in other key producing regions. Italian production for the 2026 harvest is expected to recover by about 10% from the very poor 2025 season, even though drought and pest pressure, including brown marmorated stink bug, still constrain yields and keep regional performance uneven. In Turkey, early-season new-crop arrivals and expectations of an abundant 2026 harvest have pushed international conventional quotations lower compared to last year’s peaks, yet state-support mechanisms and slowly improving confectionery demand prevent a full-scale price collapse.

Fundamentals & Key Drivers

• Concentration on hazelnuts in Georgia: Hazelnuts now dominate Georgia’s EU-bound fruit and vegetable trade, representing about 95% of export volume, underscoring the country’s role as a specialized origin for kernels and in-shell product.
• EU confectionery demand: Demand from chocolate and spread manufacturers is slowly improving from the lows of the previous season, supported by relatively softer hazelnut prices compared with extremely high cocoa costs. This underpins steady kernel demand into Q4 2026 and early 2027.
• Origin diversification: After earlier volatility in Turkish supply and prices, EU industrial buyers have diversified more aggressively toward Georgia and smaller origins (Chile, USA, Azerbaijan), making Georgian kernels strategically important despite their higher unit values.
• Weather and crop risk: Italian orchards are still dealing with the legacy of drought and pest damage, while Turkey faces normal harvest weather risks during the ongoing 2026/27 campaign. Any negative surprises in these larger origins could quickly tighten the market and support Georgian price levels.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

Over the next few weeks, the global hazelnut market is likely to trade sideways to slightly softer in conventional Turkish kernels as more new-crop volume reaches the market. However, the sharp price appreciation already achieved in Georgian exports, combined with still-limited certified organic and premium supply, suggests a firmer floor for high-quality kernels.

Trading recommendations (1–3 months)

• EU confectionery and bakery buyers: Use current Turkish conventional price softness to secure coverage for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, but protect supply security by locking in part of your needs from Georgia, especially for higher-grade kernels and origin-specific recipes.
• Importers and traders in the EU: Monitor Italian and Turkish crop updates closely. Given the already strong Georgian price rally, avoid chasing further upside there in the very short term; instead, build balanced positions across Turkey, Georgia and smaller origins.
• Georgian exporters: With Italy’s demand strengthening and willing to pay higher prices, maintain a firm pricing stance but stay responsive to any pullback in Turkish and global benchmarks that could test the sustainability of the current premium.

3-day directional outlook (EUR-based)

• FOB Türkiye, conventional kernels: Slight downside bias as new-crop flows build and exporters probe demand with small discounts.
• FOB Türkiye, organic and processed kernels: Largely stable; certified supply remains relatively tight despite overall ample crop expectations.
• Georgian kernels into EU (FCA Eastern Europe): Stable to firm; strong Italian and broader EU interest and higher contracted prices limit near-term downside.