Turkish Hazelnut Prices Ease as New Crop Arrivals Start Slowly

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are edging slightly lower for conventional product while organic offers remain broadly stable at elevated levels. Early new‑crop arrivals from the Black Sea are slow and quality is uneven after a cool, humid August, but ample carry‑in and soft EU demand are capping any upside in the short term. The new harvest has officially started across the main Black Sea provinces, with export dates set from late August, yet field reports indicate a slower pick‑up in deliveries as growers watch the market and wait on private buyers’ responses to recently announced TMO in‑shell support prices. Cooler‑than‑average and wetter conditions in Ordu and Giresun in late August have delayed drying and raised fungal risk, particularly for lower‑lying orchards, which may filter into quality differentials and discounts. At the same time, export volumes earlier in 2026 were sharply down year on year, but high unit values and a still‑weak lira mean EUR‑based kernel prices remain historically firm.

Prices

FOB Türkiye hazelnut kernel prices (converted at ~TRY 1 = EUR 0.0179 on 1 September 2026) are showing mild weakness for conventional kernels and stability for organic grades. Export unit values in USD have been high throughout 2026, supported by reduced crops and lower volumes, but the recent appreciation of EUR versus TRY helps cap EUR-denominated offers for European buyers. Wise and other FX data place EUR/TRY close to 56.0 around 1 September 2026, supporting this conversion.

On the export side, Turkey’s hazelnut shipments in early 2026 were significantly lower in volume (around 23–31% down year on year), but export revenues rose over 20% thanks to sharply higher unit prices, underscoring the still tight global balance and robust value positioning for Turkish kernels.

Supply & Demand

The 2026 Turkish hazelnut crop is expected to recover substantially from the weather-damaged 2025 harvest, with recent unofficial estimates clustering around 700,000+ tons in-shell, broadly in line with or slightly below pre-frost potential and within the range of earlier official and industry outlooks.

However, export data for January–July 2026 show that volumes remained significantly below the previous year despite this recovery, as confectionery buyers in the EU diversified origins (Chile, USA, Georgia) after the 2025 shock and relied more on carry-over stocks. This has softened forward demand pressure on Turkey even as it remains the dominant supplier.

Domestically, newly announced TMO intervention prices for in-shell nuts are considered relatively generous, implying indicative kernel export price ideas above USD 11/kg at the start of the season. Given the larger harvest outlook, some market analysts flag this as potentially too high and expect private exporters to resist aggressive early buying, contributing to the current cautious tone and selective price easing in conventional kernels.

Weather & Harvest Progress (TR)

Official harvest calendars for high-elevation orchards placed the 2026 harvest start between 22–25 August in Giresun, Ordu, Trabzon and Samsun, with export dates from 29–31 August. This means the bulk of the crop is only now entering the drying and marketing chain.

Weather monitoring for late August indicates cooler-than-average temperatures and increased humidity in key provinces such as Ordu and Giresun, with rainfall modestly above long-term norms. Analysts highlight moderate national risk from delayed kernel maturation and slower natural drying, plus heightened fungal and mold pressure during the critical early harvest window. Samsun conditions are somewhat drier and warmer, posing lower risk overall.

These patterns support expectations of uneven quality and a higher share of lots requiring careful post-harvest drying, with possible discounts for mold or defect rates. For EU buyers this increases the incentive to lock in high-quality, well-sorted kernels early while premiums remain manageable.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global balance: International data show Turkish 2025/26 production rebounding from the 2025 weather disaster but still within a tighter multi-year range, while other origins (Chile, USA, China) continue expanding. World supply remains constrained enough to keep prices firm but not at crisis levels.
• Export demand: EU confectionery and chocolate demand has been subdued by high retail prices and broader economic headwinds, reducing spot buying urgency even at the start of the new crop.
• Currency: A still-weak lira versus the euro cushions Turkish exporters and contains EUR-based offer levels; any renewed TRY weakening would exert further downward pressure on EUR prices, while a surprise strengthening could quickly tighten offers.
• Policy risk: TMO’s relatively high support prices may slow farmer selling and keep domestic expectations elevated, but if export demand does not fully absorb the crop, mid-season downward adjustments in free-market kernel prices are possible.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Price direction (next 1–3 weeks): Bias slightly downward for conventional natural kernels as more new-crop volume hits the market and exporters test demand; organic and processed forms likely remain stable to firm on tighter certified supply.
• For EU buyers: Consider layering purchases for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs during September while FX remains favorable and before clearer quality premiums emerge. Focus on locking in top grades early in case quality dispersion widens.
• For Turkish sellers: Maintain price discipline on organic and high-spec product but be prepared for more competitive offers on bulk conventional kernels if export flows lag expectations.
• Risk factors to watch: Any further wet spells during harvest in the Black Sea, revised official crop estimates, or significant moves in EUR/TRY that could quickly shift export price ideas.

3-Day Indicative Price Outlook (TR, FOB, EUR)

• Natural kernels 11–13 & 13–15 mm: Slightly softer; short-term range seen around current levels with a mild downward drift of up to 1–2% as more offers surface.
• Roasted/processed conventional: Broadly stable; minimal movement expected as buyers focus first on natural kernel coverage.
• Organic kernels and processed organic: Stable to marginally firmer, supported by steady niche demand and less price-sensitive buyers.