The global nuts market is experiencing dynamic shifts, with Georgia’s hazelnut sector offering a bright spot amid an otherwise cautious industry outlook. In the 2024–25 marketing year, Georgia recorded a stellar performance, exporting 18,200 tones of hazelnuts and achieving USD 119.7 million in export revenues. This surge—driven by robust EU import demand and stark gains in both volume (up 25%) and value (up 45%) year-on-year—highlights not only favorable international trends but also the impact of enhanced quality standards and supply-chain improvements. Average export prices rose by 16% to USD 6.59/kg, evidence of both tighter global supply and premium product acceptance, particularly in discerning European markets.
With leading buyers such as Italy, Spain, and Germany, Georgian exporters have adeptly navigated regulatory and traceability requirements, boosting the country’s competitiveness. Looking forward, market sentiment is optimistic: rising health-conscious consumption, confectionery sector growth, and continued focus on quality bode well for further export expansion in 2025–26, assuming weather conditions hold steady and prices remain robust. Such resilience stands in contrast with last year’s more subdued growth, underscoring the significance of Georgia’s improved orchard management and strategic market targeting.
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location (Country, City) | Delivery Terms | Last Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil nuts (medium) | NL | NL, Dordrecht | FCA | 6.58 | 6.58 | 2025-08-09 | Neutral |
| Hazelnuts (avg. export price) | Georgia | – | Export | 6.59 (USD equivalent) | 5.68 (USD equivalent) | Jul 31, 2025 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Export Growth: Georgia’s hazelnut exports rose by 25% in volume YoY (18,200 tonnes), with value up 45%, signaling tight supply and robust demand, especially from the EU.
- Key Markets: Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Poland, Czech Republic lead, with market expansion in Turkey, China, and North Africa.
- Main Drivers: Improved orchard management, better post-harvest processing, and strategic marketing.
📊 Fundamentals
- Higher Prices: Global nut prices, especially hazelnuts, are trending up due to strong demand and quality improvements in exporting countries.
- Stock Comparison: Global inventories are moderate, with European stocks tightening as processors and snack companies secure supply ahead of the autumn season.
- Speculative Positioning: Market participants maintain bullish positions in response to quality enhancements and consumer trends.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Georgia: Recent mild, favorable weather has supported yields; forecasts show normal rainfall in major growing regions for the coming weeks, reducing risk of heat stress during maturation.
- Turkey: Stable conditions, with minor rainfall deficits in Black Sea regions, yet not expected to significantly impact the overall harvest for 2025.
- EU (Italy, Spain): Warm temperatures and scattered showers support pollination and early nut set.
Overall, weather outlook remains largely positive for near-term yield prospects, supporting bullish sentiment.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est., tonnes) | YoY % Change | Ending Stocks (est., tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 810,000 | +3% | 60,000 |
| Georgia | 48,000 | +10% | 7,000 |
| Italy | 160,000 | +2% | 11,000 |
| USA | 50,000 | +1% | 5,000 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure contracts early as firming prices and quality-focused sourcing continue. Look for origin traceability and premium lots for EU markets.
- Sellers: Emphasize quality certification and maintain flexibility with delivery terms amidst volatile logistics and exchange-rate movements.
- Exporters: Focus on establishing/expanding ties in emerging Asian markets and premium channels in the EU.
- Traders: Monitor weather in Black Sea and Mediterranean regions. A continued firm tone is likely, but volatility may increase around new harvests.
- Industry Participants: Sustained promotion of nuts as healthy snacks and bakery inputs will support mid-term demand growth despite potential short-term corrections.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Origin | Product | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht (NL) | Brazil nuts | EUR 6.58/kg | EUR 6.60–6.65/kg | Stable to Slightly Bullish |
| Export (Georgia) | Hazelnuts | USD 6.59/kg | USD 6.60–6.70/kg | Firm/Bullish |
