The global ginger market is entering a period of heightened volatility as Brazilian exports to the U.S.—a key trade route—face a dramatic realignment. Triggered by the implementation of a steep 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian ginger, the world’s principal supplier, this measure is reshaping supplier strategies, shifting trade flows, and setting a bullish tone for prices through at least the end of 2025. Brazilian growers are now diverting labor and acreage towards higher-value crops, such as avocados and mangoes, exacerbating the supply crunch over the crucial September–November planting window. Meanwhile, Peru is stepping up as a substitute supplier and could capture increased U.S.
market share as American importers turn to avoid the punitive tariffs on Brazilian ginger. European, African, and Russian markets have also attracted renewed attention from Brazilian exporters looking to diversify amidst U.S. declines. As a result, ginger prices have firmed sharply in recent weeks. Brazilian ginger is currently quoted at USD 28–30 per 30-lb box (FOB), while Peruvian ginger commands a slight premium at USD 30–34 per box. Indian dried ginger, across multiple grades and varieties, is also trending upward in euro terms, buoyed by robust international demand. This convergence of tight supply, shifting trade relationships, and strong seasonal demand is expected to keep the ginger market undersupplied and prices elevated well into 2026, making strategic sourcing and timing more critical than ever.
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Ginger dried
whole
FOB 3.41 €/kg
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Ginger dried
slices
FOB 3.07 €/kg
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Ginger dried
Powder
FOB 3.89 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Product Type | Location | Current Price | Previous Price | Currency | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Fresh (30-lb box) | FOB | 28–30 | N/A | USD | Aug 2025 |
| Peru | Fresh (30-lb box) | FOB | 30–34 | N/A | USD | Aug 2025 |
| India | Dried Whole | New Delhi | 3.41 | 3.39 | EUR/kg | 2025-08-30 |
| India | Dried Slices | New Delhi | 3.07 | 3.05 | EUR/kg | 2025-08-30 |
| India | Dried Powder | New Delhi | 3.89 | 3.87 | EUR/kg | 2025-08-30 |
| India | NUGC 99% | New Delhi | 3.66 | 3.64 | EUR/kg | 2025-08-30 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Brazilian ginger exports to the U.S. set to fall sharply due to new 50% tariffs starting September, reducing available supply for North America.
- Brazilian growers are focusing on avocado and mango crops during the September–November planting season, reducing ginger availability further.
- Peruvian exports remain robust, and Peru is expected to absorb some U.S. demand, particularly in Q4 2025.
- Brazilian exporters pivoting more shipments to Europe, Africa, Russia, and the UK to compensate for lost U.S. sales.
- Seasonal demand is expected to rise in September, compounded by constrained supply, which should keep prices firm.
📊 Fundamentals
- Price Drivers: New U.S. tariffs, reduced Brazilian production, diversifying export markets, and typical seasonal upswing in demand.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders expect price appreciation, especially as U.S. importers build stocks ahead of the holiday season and as Brazilian supply thins.
- Inventories: Current stocks are moderate, but could tighten considerably heading into Q4, and remain under pressure well into 2026.
- Global Competition: Indian dried ginger prices are trending upward, reflecting strong international demand and tightening global supplies.
⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Brazil (Espírito Santo & Minas Gerais): Generally favorable conditions, but high input costs and labor shifts may slow planted acreage. No major weather threats reported as of late August 2025.
- Peru (Junín & Satipo): Normal precipitation and temperatures are expected through September, supporting a strong export season.
- India (Kerala): Monsoon season is largely on track, boosting prospects for the dried ginger crop, but high global demand and logistical costs remain a constraint.
📦 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production (est., ‘000 MT) | 2025 Production Outlook | Key Export Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 85 | Lower (tariff, acreage shift) | US, EU, UK, Africa, Russia |
| Peru | 57 | Stable/Up | US, EU |
| India | 450 | Stable | Asia, Middle East, EU |
| China | 600 | Stable | Global |
📆 Trading Outlook
- Expect global ginger prices to remain firm until at least Q1 2026, with the highest premiums for Brazilian and Peruvian fresh ginger.
- U.S. importers should diversify sourcing to include Peru and India to mitigate risk from reduced Brazilian supply and elevated tariffs.
- European, African, and Russian buyers may see increased availability of Brazilian ginger as trade flows realign.
- End users and wholesalers should secure longer-term supply contracts now to hedge against further price increases.
- Traders may find spot market opportunities during seasonal dips in demand (July, August) but should anticipate sharp price movements upwards as Q4 approaches.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Product | Exchange/Market | Forecast Price Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Fresh | Spot FOB | USD 29–32/box | Bullish |
| Peru | Fresh | Spot FOB | USD 31–35/box | Very Bullish |
| India | Dried (Whole) | New Delhi | EUR 3.40–3.45/kg | Bullish |
| India | Dried (Powder) | New Delhi | EUR 3.88–3.92/kg | Stable/Bullish |
