The ginger market is entering a decisive phase as tightening supply, adverse weather in Indian producing regions, and continued strong demand are generating a bullish outlook for prices. Market participants across wholesale hubs in Delhi, Mumbai, and the southern states are reporting persistent upward price pressure, fuelled by significantly lower production this season. A combination of excessive rainfall, crop disease, and reduced planting acreage has led to supply shortfalls, with India’s output estimated to have dropped by 20–22% from last year.
Fresh arrivals remain limited and will not improve before the new crop season starts in November, leaving traders with minimal old stock. The resulting gap between supply and demand has seen prices for both whole dried ginger and processed forms stay high at export points, with buyers from the spice and processing industries actively absorbing available supplies. In this climate, upward momentum appears likely to continue, especially if short-term weather forecasts point to further precipitation risks. With no significant relief on the supply front expected in the near term, the ginger market looks set to maintain its firm tone until at least the arrival of new crop stocks, keeping the market on edge for further gains.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Ginger dried
whole
FOB 3.42 €/kg
(from IN)
Ginger dried
slices
FOB 3.08 €/kg
(from IN)
Ginger dried
Powder
FOB 3.90 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger dried | Whole | India | New Delhi | FOB | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2025-10-03 | Firm/Bullish |
| Ginger dried | Slices | India | New Delhi | FOB | 3.08 | 3.08 | 2025-10-03 | Firm/Bullish |
| Ginger dried | Powder | India | New Delhi | FOB | 3.90 | 3.90 | 2025-10-03 | Firm/Bullish |
| Ginger dried | NUGC 99% | India | New Delhi | FOB | 3.66 | 3.66 | 2025-10-03 | Firm/Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production decline: India’s 2025 ginger output is down 20–22% year-on-year due to excessive rainfall and plant disease in Karnataka, Kerala, and northeastern regions.
- New arrivals delayed: Fresh crop not expected until November; old-stock reserves are nearly depleted.
- Strong demand: Robust buying from spice/processors and active trade in metro markets keeps demand elevated.
- Global market: Other major producers (China, Nigeria, Bangladesh) are also reporting stable-to-firm demand, but India’s output decline is the main current driver.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Tight domestic stock: Little leftover from previous crop year, raising import interest from some Asian buyers.
- Speculative positioning: Traders and wholesalers holding off large sales, anticipating further gains before November.
- Price stability: Last week’s prices hold at multi-month highs with high transaction volumes in Delhi, Mumbai.
- Comparison with last report: The current uptrend is more pronounced, driven by sharper than anticipated shortfalls and delayed arrivals versus the previous seasonal outlook.
🌤️ Weather Outlook
- Karnataka, Kerala, Northeast India: Latest forecasts indicate above-average rainfall and some localized flooding risks in the next 3–5 days, which may delay field operations and recovery prospects for late sown ginger.
- Main production areas: Continued wet weather could exacerbate disease issues, further trimming remaining late season production. Crop recovery prospects remain slim until start of the dry season.
🌐 Global Stocks & Production
| Country | 2024 Output (Est. ‘000 t) | YoY Change (%) | Key Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,390 | -21% | Crop losses, adverse weather |
| China | 2,000 | 0% | Steady, stable |
| Nigeria | 521 | +2% | Solid domestic/off-season demand |
| Bangladesh | 169 | 0% | Limited exportable surplus |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 💡 For buyers: Secure near-term requirements promptly; further supply tightening could trigger more upside before November.
- 💡 For sellers: Hold stocks if possible to benefit from possible price rallies as arrivals remain thin.
- 💡 For exporters: Monitor developments in Indian production and weather closely; competitive advantage likely for those with existing stocks.
- 💡 Market sentiment: Firm to bullish until the new crop hits the market in November.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | 3.42 – 3.90 | +0.05 ~ +0.12 | Upward/Bullish |
| Mumbai (FOB, est.) | 3.38 – 3.85 | +0.04 ~ +0.10 | Upward/Bullish |
Note: Range reflects product quality and form (whole, powder, slices).
