The ginger market is facing an intriguing situation: harsh weather in northeastern India has significantly reduced dry ginger production—by an estimated 36–37% in prominent regions such as Sikkim and the Northeast. Historically, such a yield drop would provoke a bullish price reaction. Not so this season. The market finds itself under the weight of heavy carryover stocks, sustained flows of imported ginger, and notably tepid demand—especially from major southern buyers. As a result, pricing momentum has stalled and ginger remains largely range-bound despite the supply-side shock.
Commercial activity has slowed to a crawl. In Kochi, a key trading axis, premium dry ginger is at $4.35–$4.80/kg—even below earlier highs of $5.10/kg, with bulk purchases subdued. Delhi’s markets see cleaned ginger at $2.40–$2.53/kg and southern centers book trades at $2.65–$2.71/kg. With new crops entering local supply chains and spot availability still decent, expectations of a rapid price rebound are slim. Market experts agree: until India’s burdensome inventory diminishes, prices will be restrained, and any recovery will be incremental rather than explosive.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Ginger dried
whole
FOB 3.46 €/kg
(from IN)
Ginger dried
slices
FOB 3.10 €/kg
(from IN)
Ginger dried
Powder
FOB 3.93 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Region/Market | Product/Type | Price (USD/kg) | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kochi | Dry Ginger – Good Quality | 4.35–4.80 | 4.00–4.42 | -5% | Bearish |
| Delhi | Cleaned Dry Ginger | 2.40–2.53 | 2.21–2.33 | Stable | Neutral |
| Delhi | Uncleaned Dry Ginger | 2.17–2.29 | 2.00–2.11 | Stable | Neutral |
| South India | Dry Ginger – Spot | 2.65–2.71 | 2.44–2.50 | – | Weak |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Dried, Whole (Organic) | – | 3.46 | Stable | Neutral |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Dried, Slices (Organic) | – | 3.10 | Stable | Neutral |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Dried, Powder (Organic) | – | 3.93 | Stable | Neutral |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Dried, NUGC 99% | – | 3.70 | Stable | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: 2024 dry ginger output down 36–37% YoY in Sikkim and Northeast India, due to adverse weather.
- Stocks: Large Indian carryover stocks persist from previous bumper crops, putting a ceiling on price gains.
- Imports: Steady imports, notably from China, continue to supplement domestic supply.
- Demand: Soft, with major southern buyers absent and cautious purchasing seen at current prices. Export momentum remains weak.
- Consumption: Remains flat domestically; export demand has not compensated for internal weakness.
📊 Fundamentals
- Market Drivers:
- Severe weather trimmed new crop volumes.
- Massive carryover and imports sustain high overall availability.
- Weak southern demand and limited export opportunities cap upside.
- Spot market offers at older high levels (e.g., Kochi $2.71–2.77/kg) are mostly unfilled.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders cautious—withhold from buying in bulk, anticipating further downside or sideways movement.
- Comparisons: Last season’s report flagged strong local stocks, but this year the gap between output loss and demand contraction is more pronounced, reinforcing the weak sentiment.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Sikkim/Northeast: Unseasonably heavy rain, lingering soil moisture, and risk of further flooding impacting fieldwork and harvest logistics.
- South India: Monsoon delays have so far not worsened ginger field conditions; however, close monitoring is required as weather remains volatile.
- Implications: While some recovery is possible if weather stabilizes, near-term supplies from afflicted areas are expected to stay below average.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production (Est.) | Stocks/Surplus | Import/Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | -36% YoY (from NE & Sikkim regions) | Large carryover; high | Imports rising, exports weak |
| China | Stable/Increasing | Ample | Key exporter to India/Asia |
| Nigeria | Stable | Moderate | Exports steady to EU/NA markets |
| Bangladesh | Modest | Normal | Minor global impact |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ⏳ Wait-and-watch: Stock-heavy market and subdued demand suggest no immediate upside—bulk buyers should delay major stocking.
- 📦 Exporters: Seek niche overseas buyers or premium organic markets, but expect soft pricing competition from China and local surpluses.
- ⚖️ Traders: Monitor monsoon progress and stock offloading patterns. Prices could see minor downside if new arrivals accelerate.
- 🔥 Spot Buyers: Take advantage of soft domestic pricing, particularly for high-quality lots where supply is robust.
- 🔍 Watch for signals: Any announcement of government procurement/intervention or sudden monsoon-related supply disruption could jolt prices.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Region | Price Range (USD/kg) | Direction/Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Kochi | 4.30–4.70 | Stable/Weak |
| Delhi | 2.32–2.52 | Stable |
| Southern Markets | 2.60–2.70 | Mildly Bearish |
| New Delhi (FOB, EUR) | 3.10–3.93 | Stable |
