Demand prices for barley have recently started to rise amid sales curbs by producers, who initially sell rapeseed to replenish working capital, delaying sales of wheat and barley until the volume of the new crop becomes clear, reports Graintrade.
We will remind that in the August report, USDA experts lowered the forecast of world barley production in 2023/24 MR by 3.2 million tonnes to 142.6 million tonnes (152 million tonnes in 2022/23 MR), in particular for EU countries – by 2 to 48.4 million tonnes, the Russian Federation – by 0.5 to 19.1 million tonnes, Canada – by 0.6 to 9.2 million tonnes.
The forecast of world barley exports in 2023/24 has been reduced by 0.6 to 26.5 million tonnes, in particular for the EU – by 0.3 to 6.2 million tonnes and Canada – by 0.3 to 2.6 million tonnes. At the same time, the import forecast for Türkiye was reduced by 0.5 to 2.1 million tonnes and for China by 0.5 to 7.5 million tonnes.
According to USDA forecasts, an increase in corn and feed wheat consumption will lead to a decrease in barley consumption, so the estimate for ending stocks of barley was left unchanged at 17.6 million tonnes.
Analysts at RMI Analytics have lowered their forecast for the world barley crop from 138.7 million tonnes to 138 million tonnes due to reduced production in Canada, the EU and Argentina. This will be 14 million tonnes less than the 2022 crop, so a further reduction in forecasts will increase pressure on prices.
Canadian and French barley prices are also rising. The malt quality premium in France has already reached $140/t due to potential problems with the availability of quality malting grains.
In Ukraine, feed barley purchase prices remain at a low level of $145/t or UAH 5,500/t for delivery to Danube ports, while malting barley prices have risen to UAH 6,000-7,000/t (depending on quality) for factory delivery. We remind you that last year barley prices reached $150-160/t against the background of blocked Black Sea ports. Asking prices for deliveries to the port of Constanta are $185/t compared to €220-250/t DAP last year.
Malting plants have entered into forward contracts for the supply of malting barley and are now buying only as required. This year the quality of spring barley in Ukraine is quite high as the harvest is taking place against a background of favourable weather.
Source: Graintrade