Global Corn Market in Flux: Ukrainian Export Shortfall Drives Prices and Volatility

The global corn market is currently facing a wave of volatility, triggered largely by a sharp decline in Ukrainian corn exports during the 2024/2025 marketing year. As of June 18, Ukraine’s corn exports have plunged by 32.2% year-over-year—a shortfall of nearly 7 million tons—while total grain and legume exports dropped by 24.2%. This significant reduction is reshaping export flows, tightening global supply, and fueling price sensitivity in a period already marked by weather-driven uncertainties and persistent geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region.

Market participants are closely monitoring alternative origins such as the United States, Brazil, and the European Union for any compensatory increases in output or exports. However, dry weather events and mixed production trends in these key geographies provide little reassurance for bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, demand from key importers in Asia and the Middle East remains firm, sharpening competition for available supplies. The latest price quotes show regional discrepancies amid supply uncertainty and logistics challenges, particularly as harvest prospects are increasingly dependent on near-term weather patterns in North and South America. As the market digests the ramifications of tightening Black Sea flows and global production risk, stakeholders need to weigh risk management strategies while remaining vigilant for new crop and acreage data.

📈 Prices: Latest Corn Market Quotes

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris	—	FOB	0.27	0.27	2025-06-12	Stable
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa	—	FOB	0.21	0.21	2025-06-12	Stable
Corn (yellow feed grade, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa	Moisture: 14.5% max	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-06-12	Stable
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi	—	FOB	2.00	2.02	2025-06-12	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukrainian Export Drop: 2024/25 MY corn exports at 21.48 million tons (-32.2% YoY); major supply gap for Mediterranean and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Bigger Picture: Total Ukrainian grain exports down by 24.2%, putting pressure not just on corn but global feed grain balance sheets.
• Alternative Origins: Pressure on US, Brazil, EU output to fill supply void; US crop condition is a key watch with some Midwest dryness reported.
• Demand: China, Egypt, Mexico continue high procurement activity, offsetting some supply-side weakness with resilient demand flows.
• Speculative Positioning: Net long positions in CBOT corn have softened, with funds wary amid supply uncertainty and shifting macros.

📊 Fundamentals & Key Data

• USDA June WASDE: Global ending stocks projected to ease, with downward revisions to Ukrainian and potentially Brazilian output.
• Acreage Reports: US acreage seen flat to slightly lower year-on-year; market awaits Prospective Plantings for late updates.
• Inventories: EU corn reserves well below average, South American harvest lagging in some areas due to late planting/weather setbacks.
• Ocean Freight: Ongoing Black Sea risks add to logistics premiums; US Gulf shippers benefit as a fallback origin.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Corn Belt: Short-term heat and below-normal rain in parts of Iowa/Missouri; stress risk if pattern extends beyond 10 days.
• Brazil Safrinha: Early dryness in Mato Grosso improves in some areas, but late sowing raises yield risk for portions of the crop.
• Europe: Mixed rainfall in France, Spain, and Romania; some southern regions monitor for moisture deficits during pollination.
• Ukraine: Adequate recent rains but persistent uncertainty given harvest delays and potential grain export disruptions.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (est. mln tons)	2023/24 Output (est. mln tons)	2024/25 Exports (est. mln tons)	Stock Trend
USA	387	382	57	Stable
Brazil	125	130	53	Down
Ukraine	27	35	21.5	Down sharply
EU	62	61	4	Low/reserves tight
China	293	288	<0.1	Steady

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Expect continued price support in Europe/Black Sea origins due to sharp Ukrainian shortfall.
• Monitor US crop condition ratings and rainfall over next 2-3 weeks for volatility cues.
• Short-term demand from Asia beneficiaries remains robust; demand rationing possible at higher price levels.
• Track ocean freight and insurance for Black Sea shipments—any escalation would buoy premiums for alternative sources.
• Consider risk hedges via options/futures in the face of weather, logistics, and political uncertainty.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Paris (MATIF)	0.27	0.28	Bullish
Odesa (Ukraine FOB)	0.21	0.21	Stable
US Gulf (CBOT, converted)	~0.18	0.18-0.19	Bullish

Key Takeaway: The corn market faces upward price pressure as Ukrainian exports contract sharply. Weather and logistics risks require close monitoring as they will define short-term volatility and opportunity.