The global lentil market is confronting a period of notable supply tension and heightened uncertainty as a result of depleted export inventories among key players and ongoing monitoring of the situation in leading producer regions. Market sources from China report that major exporters have effectively run out of available stocks, with few traders retaining small wholesale inventories and offers nearly disappearing from the international market. This restriction of supply is propelling expectations for stable to moderately higher prices in the near term. Italian buyers are reportedly pausing to wait for new crop arrivals, highlighting the market’s anticipation of upcoming changes and a strategy among buyers to adapt to ongoing price fluctuations.
Attention remains fixed on developments in both Canada and Turkey, the world’s largest and most influential lentil producers and exporters. Both countries’ performance will shape pricing for the next several months. Presently, reference FOB prices for organic lentils in Tianjin and Dalian are quoted at USD 1,500–1,530 per ton, with conventional lentils fetching USD 1,430–1,460 per ton. Current European and North American offers—for both red and green lentil varieties—echo this firmness, as evident in price tables below. The continued vigilance among buyers and traders, coupled with constrained global supplies and weather-driven uncertainties for the new crop, underline the risk of further price spikes if supply does not recover as anticipated.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.39 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.28 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.46 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Purity | Organic | Location | FOB Price (€/kg) |
FOB Price ($/ton) |
Weekly Change | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Small, Green | 99.5% | Yes | Beijing | 1.39 | 1,500–1,530 | -0.02 | 2025-06-17 | Firm/Bullish |
| China | Small, Green | 99.5% | No | Beijing | 1.28 | 1,430–1,460 | -0.02 | 2025-06-17 | Firm/Bullish |
| Canada | Red football | – | No | Ottawa | 2.46 | 2,460 | -0.02 | 2025-06-13 | Stable/Soft |
| Canada | Laird, Green | – | No | Ottawa | 1.63 | 1,630 | -0.01 | 2025-06-13 | Steady |
| Canada | Eston Green | – | No | Ottawa | 1.50 | 1,500 | -0.01 | 2025-06-13 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- China: Export inventories at historic lows; buyers and exporters withholding new offers until harvest.
- Canada: Exportable surpluses moderately available, but old crop stocks tightening rapidly.
- Turkey: Limited export supply due to domestic demand and crop uncertainty.
- Italy & Europe: Active buyers looking for new crop arrivals, hesitating on current high prices.
- Global: Supply-side tension persists as production risk increases ahead of the next harvest cycle.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA & Crop Acreage Reports: Canadian sown acreage for lentils steady but faced with below-average early season rainfall. Turkey’s acreage remains under pressure due to shifting to higher value crops.
- Export/Import Flows: Shipments out of China and Turkey have slowed. Canadian exports are being closely watched for any upward price movement.
- Speculative Positioning: Trading is cautious as both buyers and end-users seek assurances around new crop volumes and quality.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Canada: Drier-than-average conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta, raising concern about yield potential for the 2025 crop, although scattered rains in mid-June offered modest relief. Crop emergence rated mostly good, but further moisture is urgently required for pod filling in July.
- Turkey: Dry spell persists in Anatolia; temperature spikes in June may stress crops during flowering and early pod set.
- China: Weather favorable overall in Northeast growing areas; some risk of localized heat stress if high-pressure systems intensify in late June.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Est.) (million tons) |
2024/25 Stocks (million tons) |
Export Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2.3 | 0.45 | Major |
| Turkey | 0.28 | 0.05 | Major |
| India | 1.15 | 0.10 | Minor (Mainly Importer) |
| China | 0.15 | 0.03 | Minor |
| Russia | 0.10 | 0.02 | Emerging Exporter |
⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Inventory holders may see price improvement opportunities as exportable stocks dwindle.
- Importers should consider securing forward contracts for Q3 delivery, especially ahead of the new crop uncertainty in Canada and Turkey.
- Watch for Canadian and Turkish weather updates: timely rainfall or continued drought could impact prices sharply in the coming weeks.
- Buyers in Europe and Asia advised to monitor new crop indications before locking in volumes for late 2025.
- Speculative buyers may target long positions, but entry carries above-normal risk due to thin physical market liquidity.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | June 18 | June 19 | June 20 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing (CN, Organic Small Green) | 1.39 €/kg | 1.40 €/kg | 1.41 €/kg | Stable to Slightly Firm |
| Beijing (CN, Conv. Small Green) | 1.28 €/kg | 1.29 €/kg | 1.30 €/kg | Stable to Slightly Firm |
| Ottawa (CA, Red Football) | 2.46 €/kg | 2.47 €/kg | 2.48 €/kg | Slightly Firm |
| Ottawa (CA, Laird Green) | 1.63 €/kg | 1.64 €/kg | 1.64 €/kg | Firm |
