Global Rice Market Faces Uncertainty Amid US-Japan Trade Standoff and Steady Prices

The international rice market is at a pivotal juncture, dominated by tense trade negotiations between the United States and Japan. Recent talks have stalled, as the US presses Japan to dramatically increase its annual rice imports to 550,000 tons—a move that would constitute a formidable shift from current levels. Japan, on the other hand, remains cautious, offering only a modest 15% import increase due to domestic sensitivities and the need to protect local producers. The dispute now acts as a roadblock for other trade resolutions, spanning tariffs on industrial goods and broader agricultural commodities. This uncertainty is creating ripples across global rice supply chains, export planning, and commodity pricing, as exporters and importers adjust their strategies in anticipation of evolving trade agreements.

With prices stable in major export hubs like India and Vietnam, stakeholders are closely watching how weather developments, pending USDA reports, and geopolitical signals might intersect to influence market dynamics in the coming days. Any protracted delay in US-Japan trade negotiations could reverberate through global supply lines, particularly for US growers and Asian importers alike.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	FOB Price (EUR/MT)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
India	All Golden Sella	New Delhi	1.05	0.00%	Neutral
India	PR11 All Steam	New Delhi	0.56	0.00%	Neutral
India	Sharbati Steam	New Delhi	0.71	0.00%	Steady
India	1121 Steam	New Delhi	0.97	0.00%	Steady
Vietnam	Long White 5%	Hanoi	0.60	0.00%	Steady
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi	0.62	0.00%	Steady

Note: Prices shown reflect FOB rates as of 2025-08-30, with no week-on-week change despite external market volatility. Exporter sentiment remains neutral as traders await trade and weather outcomes.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US-Japan Standoff: US demand for increased rice exports to Japan is the key current policy risk, with up to 550,000 tons/year on the table. No resolution yet, impacting trade flows in the Asia-Pacific.
• Japan: Reluctant to boost American rice imports beyond a 15% increase, prioritizing domestic farmer support and stable local markets.
• India & Vietnam: Exporters hold steady as global demand is stable, but uncertainty looms if major importers like Japan adjust policies or buying patterns in response to US pressure.
• Inventories: Global stocks are considered ample, but anticipated trade bottlenecks or weather shocks could rapidly shift this balance.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Data: Markets await the latest WASDE and acreage data, with traders watching for signals on US production amidst mixed planting conditions.
• Speculative positioning: Largely flat, as funds remain on the sidelines until greater clarity emerges in trade talks and weather developments.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand): Monsoon rains have been moderate, aiding rice crop development. Scattered flooding risks remain but are not widespread as of early September.
• India: Key rice-producing regions report generally favorable weather, though pockets of delayed rainfall are emerging in eastern parts. No market-moving losses reported yet.
• US (Arkansas, Louisiana, California): Warm conditions have accelerated crop maturity in the South; some concern over late-season dryness in Arkansas, but no critical yield threat reported.
• Japan: Temperate weather supports stable production, but domestic supply is tightly managed regardless of weather-induced supply swings.

Potential Impact: With current weather patterns, global rice supply appears secure in the near term. However, localized weather extremes could quickly change the outlook, especially as climate risks increase.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mln Tons)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mln Tons)	Export Share (%)
India	129.5	36.0	33%
Vietnam	44.3	7.9	15%
Thailand	31.1	5.3	13%
USA	8.4	1.8	8%
China	147.5	104.1	3%
Japan	7.4	2.0	1%

Key Insight: India remains the largest exporter, while China and Japan maintain high strategic stocks and tightly control imports.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ✅ Exporters: Maintain current positions, as prices are stable but monitor trade news. Prepare for possible volatility if US-Japan talks break down or weather shifts abruptly.
• ✅ Importers (esp. Japan, Southeast Asia): Take advantage of current price stability but consider booking forward contracts for Q4 to hedge against unforeseen supply disruptions.
• ⚠️ Traders & Funds: Stay in a risk-neutral posture; wait for definitive outcomes from US-Japan talks and late-season weather for the US crop before taking large directional bets.
• ✅ Industry Watch: Keep a close eye on WASDE updates and policy signals from India and Vietnam, especially around potential new export restrictions post-monsoon.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Expected Price Range EUR/MT	Trend
India	All Golden Sella	1.04 – 1.07	Stable
India	PR11 All Steam	0.55 – 0.57	Stable
India	Sharbati Steam	0.70 – 0.73	Stable
Vietnam	Long White 5%	0.59 – 0.62	Stable
Vietnam	Jasmine	0.61 – 0.64	Stable

Forecast Summary: Prices are expected to remain within a narrow range as neither weather nor trade disruptions are anticipated in the next three days.