Global Rice Market Trends: Steady Growth Amid Shifting Supply Dynamics

The rice market in mid-June 2025 displays steady yet cautious bullish undertones, balancing resilient global demand against shifting supply factors. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggest a measured optimism, with most maturities posting soft gains or negligible losses. This market calm follows a spring dominated by mixed weather outlooks in key Asian exporters, ongoing logistical adaptations since India’s recent export adjustments, and the continued rebound of Vietnamese rice shipments.

Meanwhile, European and Middle Eastern buyers maintain robust purchasing momentum, keeping international FOB prices firm, especially for premium and speciality rice types. With weather variability looming over the upcoming planting cycles in Southeast Asia and the United States, and stocks in several origins trending at multi-year lows, market participants are keeping a close eye on both speculative flows and fundamental import demand. Ultimately, the rice market stands at a crossroads, marked by plenty of upside risk should adverse weather evolve, or corrective potential if forecasts improve and global harvests expand.

📈 Prices & Technicals

Exchange	Contract	Latest Close	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	13.75 US-Cent/cwt	-0.15%	Cautiously Bearish
CBOT	Sep 25	13.85 US-Cent/cwt	-0.07%	Neutral
CBOT	Nov 25	13.99 US-Cent/cwt	+0.18%	Neutral-Bullish

 

Origin	Type	Country	Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Change
India	Golden Sella	IN	1.08	+0.02
India	Steam, pr11	IN	0.57	+0.02
India	Steam, Sharbati	IN	0.72	+0.02

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: Global 2024/25 rice production is forecast slightly higher but with downside risk if Asian weather patterns remain erratic. Consumption remains strong, especially across Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
• India & Southeast Asia: Indian export restrictions continue to tighten global medium-grain supply, but rising output in Vietnam and Thailand is softening the blow. Vietnam’s logistics normalised after recent bottlenecks, boosting export pace.
• Stocks & Inventories: Key exporter stocks—especially in India—are at historically low levels, while China holds elevated reserves, but next exports remain modest. Importers’ stocks are declining, supporting sustained demand.
• Speculative Positioning: Fund traders maintain modest net long positions, indicating tentative bullish interest but no speculative excess so far.

📊 Market Fundamentals

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Exports (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
India	128.5	18.0	23.7
Vietnam	43.7	7.8	4.2
Thailand	30.4	8.0	3.6
China	206.1	<1.5	110.0
Africa (Total)	25.5	neg.	Low

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook

• South & Southeast Asia: Current forecasts highlight above-average monsoon precipitation in South India, but dryness and heatwaves risk delaying sowing and lowering yields in eastern India and northern Vietnam.
• US Gulf Coast: Early U.S. fields show favourable vegetative health and ample soil moisture, but upcoming weeks may turn drier, raising the risk for late stress.
• Thailand: Patchy rainfall continues, but reservoirs show improvement,t supporting the next planting cycle.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain long positions on select future contracts (Nov 25-Jan 26) if weather risks rise further.
• Monitor Indian and Vietnamese FOB offers—premiums are expected for speciality varieties and exports with rapid shipment terms.
• Consider short-term hedging if the local weather in Southeast Asia shifts towards favourable conditions, triggering potential corrections.
• Industry buyers: cover Q3-Q4 requirements steadily—spot inventory is tight globally.
• Speculative traders: keep close watch on speculative positioning and fund flows for momentum signals.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT & Key FOB Markets)

Market	Product/Contract	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT	July 25	13.75 US-Cent/cwt	13.75-13.95	Stable-Slightly Higher
India FOB	All Golden Sella	1.08 EUR/kg	1.08-1.10	Up
Vietnam FOB	Long, White 5%	0.62 EUR/kg	0.62-0.64	Firm