Global Rice Market Update: Prices Under Pressure Amid Surplus, Weak Demand, but Weather Risks Loom

The global rice market is facing renewed downward pressure as prices dip to their lowest levels in eight years, weighed down by ample stocks, record harvests in major exporters, and sluggish demand. Despite localized crop losses in India and Pakistan, global supplies remain robust, largely offsetting these regional setbacks. According to analysts and agencies such as the USDA, global production is set to reach new highs in 2025–26, with particularly strong output expected from Brazil and Colombia. Meanwhile, a weaker export outlook from top shippers India and Pakistan—due to recent export curbs and unfavorable weather—has been balanced out by higher stocks in both countries, keeping the international market oversupplied.

Market sentiment is notably bearish, reflected in the speculators’ switch to net short positions for the first time since June 2024. The FAO All Rice Price Index underscores this trend, dropping 24.3% year-on-year in August, while futures prices on the CBOT have sunk more than 17% year-to-date. Yet, the market is not without its uncertainties: a strong Indian monsoon, policy interventions, or weather disruptions in key regions could still impact prices. Looking ahead, analysts expect subdued price action into 2025 unless unexpected supply shocks materialize, as global stocks are forecast to tighten only modestly next season.

📈 Latest Rice Prices at Key Exchanges

Origin/Exchange	Type/Grade	Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT (2nd month)	Futures	$11.6/cwt	-9.7% MoM	Bearish
US Gulf	Export	$606/tonne	↓ $33	Bearish
India	Export, non-basmati	$373/tonne	↓ $2	Bearish
Vietnam	Export, 5% broken	$372/tonne	↓ $22	Bearish
Thailand	Export	$366/tonne	↓ $3	Bearish
Pakistan	Export	$358/tonne	↓ $4	Bearish
Uruguay	Export	$500/tonne	Unchanged	Neutral
India	Pusa Basmati	$925/tonne	Firm	Supported
Pakistan	Basmati	$1064/tonne	Firm	Supported

🌍 Physical Market Prices (Selected FOB Offers, EUR)

Origin	City	Type	Incoterm	Price (€/kg)	Change
Vietnam	Hanoi	Black	FOB	1.17	Unchanged
India	New Delhi	All golden, sella	FOB	1.05	Unchanged
India	New Delhi	All steam, pr11	FOB	0.56	Unchanged

📊 Market Drivers

• 🌱 Global Production: USDA projects record global rice output in 2025–26 at 555.4 mln tonnes, driven by gains in Brazil and Colombia.
• ⬇️ Muted Demand: Global demand remains subdued; the FAO rice index dropped 24.3% YoY in August, reflecting weak buying interest.
• 📉 India & Pakistan: Despite export curbs, larger stocks post-harvest and steady production (+0.5% YoY for India in 2025–26) keep markets amply supplied.
• 🌧️ Weather Risks: Above-average Indian monsoon could damage crops in some regions, posing a potential—but limited—upside risk.
• 📄 Speculative Positioning: Net short positions on rice futures highlight persistent bearish trader sentiment as surplus stays in focus.
• 📦 Stocks: Beginning stocks in 2026–27 expected lower globally (-0.3%), with Indian (-1.1%) and US (-11.5%) reductions tightening the buffer slightly, but not yet alarming.

☁️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India: The monsoon has been mostly favorable but has brought excessive rainfall to some areas, risking localized yield losses. Outlook: Variable; overall above-average rainfall positive but watch for further flooding.
• Pakistan: Recent localized floods but national output impact minor; weather trending drier now.
• Vietnam/Thailand: Normal-to-slightly better monsoon; no major disruptions reported, supporting steady output forecasts.
• US: Moderate and stable conditions; no major weather threats into harvest.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Prod. 2025–26 (mln t)	Cons. 2025–26 (mln t)	2025–26 Stock	Share: Export
India	151	~148*	Lower by 1.1% YoY	35%
China	147*	~144*	Stable	Minor
Vietnam	43*	Ongoing	Steady	8%
P.Pakistan	9*	*	Some drawdown	8%
US	6-7*	*	-11.5% YoY	~7%
Global	555.4	539.4	-0.3% YoY	–

*approximate estimates

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔻 Bears in Control: Further downside likely unless weather or policy shocks arise.
• ⏳ Wait-and-Watch: Buyers may benefit from patience, as local prices continue to slip amid heavy inventories.
• 🚩 Monitor Monsoon: Watch Indian weather for potential supply shocks; excessive rain could support prices briefly.
• 📏 Physical Premiums: Specialty markets (basmati, organic) remain firm with steady demand from Africa and the Middle East.
• 🌍 Exporters: Consider forward sales to manage inventory risk; importers can slow purchases or negotiate for discounts.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current	Forecast Range (Next 3 Days)
CBOT (Futures)	$11.6/cwt	$11.3–11.7/cwt
Vietnam (FOB Hanoi, black)	€1.17/kg	€1.15–1.17/kg
India (FOB, all golden, sella)	€1.05/kg	€1.03–1.06/kg