Global Sesame Market: Competitive Pressures and Weather Volatility Shape August Dynamics

The global sesame market starts August on an intense and volatile note, characterized by a tug-of-war between strong domestic demand, international price competition, regulatory changes, and shifting weather patterns. China’s procurement slow-down—driven by uncertainty regarding regulatory policy and anticipated global oversupply—has been somewhat offset by the significant development of GACC’s approval for Brazilian sesame imports. This move could unleash a wave of competitively priced volumes, intensifying rivalry for export markets and potentially capping any price surge from traditional origins like Pakistan, India, or Nigeria.

Meanwhile, Japan and Turkey have re-strategized their imports to secure cheaper and diverse sources: Japan ramped up volumes from Africa, benefiting from lower price points, and Turkey doubled its June imports, underscoring robust internal demand and increased purchases from Chad and Ethiopia.

Production risks are also present. Delayed harvests in Pakistan due to seasonal rains, weather-related crop stress in India, and logistical bottlenecks in Brazil could limit supply-side relief in the near term—even as new African and South American surpluses loom. With auctions and inventories from Tanzania and expectations of a healthy Ethiopian crop, the global market now hinges on how quickly new origins can ship product and whether crop-weather interruptions escalate further.

Against this background, prices remain volatile. Indian domestic markets, for example, saw double-digit gains for key grades by early August, while international CNF and FOB offers remain competitive from Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Market participants should prepare for dynamic price shifts as September contracts approach and regional weather forecasts play out.

📈 Sesame Prices & Sentiment

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Chad (TD)	Hulled	99.95%	Berlin (DE)	FCA	1.88	1.76	2025-08-06	Bullish (+6.8%)
India (IN)	Hulled	99.90%	New Delhi (IN)	FOB	1.98	1.98	2025-08-02	Steady
India (IN)	Hulled, EU-Grade	99.98%	New Delhi (IN)	FOB	2.08	2.06	2025-08-02	Firm (+1.0%)

Spot Offers (Global):

• Pakistan CNF: USD 1,120–1,150/ton
• Tanzania CFR: USD 1,200–1,250/ton
• Mozambique CFR: USD 1,300–1,320/ton
• Ethiopia FOB: USD 1,390–1,420/ton

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China: Slowed buying in response to regulatory uncertainty and oversupply concerns. GACC paves way for rapid Brazilian imports (potentially 100,000 MT), likely increasing competition for African and Asian exporters.
• Japan: Boosted H1 2025 imports by 12% (90,466 MT); average prices down 14% to USD 1,675/ton. Nigeria, Tanzania, and Mozambique increased market share.
• Turkey: Imports surged 23% in Jan–Jun 2025 (123,569 MT), with Chad leading. June imports doubled YoY, despite average price falling to USD 1,657/ton.
• India: Sowing pace stable, but heavy rains damage early fields, supporting domestic price rallies. Govt seed programs in UP but moisture delays plantings.
• Pakistan: Harvest delayed by rain; export program expected to commence mid-August at highly competitive offer levels.
• Africa: Tanzania auctions move 183,000 MT (plus 34,834 MT in storage); Ethiopia sees favourable sowing and solid early crop prospects.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Inventories: Stocks appear adequate in Tanzania; India faces tightening supply due to weather.
• Competition: Brazilian, African, and Pakistani sesame offers drive tight international price spreads.
• Regulation: GACC approval accelerates Brazil’s rise as a key China supplier.
• Speculation: Indian domestic stockists active, anticipating further supply-side tightening.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India: Heavy rains hit Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, and Karnataka. Excess moisture delays late planting in UP. Forecast: More showers expected in first half of August, posing further risk to yield recovery in driest regions.
• Pakistan: Rains ending; harvest window to open imminently. Fair weather outlook for harvest but risk if further delays occur.
• Ethiopia: Favourable early conditions could boost output and quality; continued timely rains will be key in coming weeks.
• Brazil: 90% harvest completion; dry, mild weather supports final collection but port congestion may disrupt shipment flows.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025 YTD Exports (MT)	Import Trends
Japan	90,466	Africa gaining market share, prices down
Turkey	123,569	Chad, Niger, Brazil main suppliers
Tanzania	183,000 (auctions)	Steady supply, 34,834 MT in storage
Pakistan	N/A (harvest imminent)	Exports to begin mid-August
Brazil	N/A (harvest 90% done)	Ready for China, India demand
Ethiopia	N/A (new crop sown)	Improved outlook

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect international sesame prices to remain volatile through August as new exports from Brazil and Pakistan hit the market.
• Indian domestic markets could experience further tightness if monsoon disruption persists; bullish short-term bias remains.
• Chinese import strategy is now highly sensitive to the pace of Brazilian arrivals; aggressive pricing from Brazil may pressure Pakistani and African exporters.
• Stockists should monitor supply chain risks—especially in India and Brazil (weather, port logistics).
• Watch for mid-August export launches from Pakistan as a catalyst for global price shifts.
• Buyers should consider building coverage now for Q4 if dependent on weather-affected origins.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Direction	Drivers
Berlin (Chad Hulled 99.95%)	1.88–1.92	⬆️ Mildly Bullish	Strong demand, Africa competition
New Delhi (IN Hulled 99.98%)	2.08–2.14	⬆️ Bullish	Crop risk, stockist activity
FOB (Pakistan CNF)	1,120–1,150 USD/t	➡️ Stable	New harvest, competitive offers