Global Sesame Market: Pressure Builds Despite Stable Demand in China and Robust Trade Activity in Asia

The global sesame market is navigating a delicate equilibrium, balancing firm import demand in key Asian countries against price pressures from expanded supply lines and shifting weather risks. China’s industrial demand has remained steady, even as buyers reconfigured procurement strategies to counter high international offers by directly engaging with African exporters and favoring Tanzanian and Mozambican supply. This pragmatic approach has swelled import volumes—up 14% year-on-year between January and May 2025—while simultaneously softening the average import price to $1,413/MT, a notable 17% drop from last year.

South Korea’s bullish purchasing stance, underscored by a full allocation of its 5th TRQ tender at robust prices, reflects tightness in premium grades amid constrained global availabilities. Meanwhile, Turkey’s importers are recalibrating, exploring alternative origins outside Brazil to mitigate high domestic prices. In India, an 8.2% expansion in sowing this July signals optimism, but erratic rainfall fueled by an active monsoon poses potential risks to crop development and logistics over the coming weeks. Pakistan, despite lower planting due to farmer exit after a tough 2024, projects a stable 300,000 MT crop, contingent on August rainfall.

Indian domestic prices showed mixed movement across grades, with most white sesame under pressure and some regional red sesame markets bucking the downtrend. Overall, market sentiment is cautious—buying interest persists but remains highly responsive to pricing and weather developments.

📈 Sesame Seed Prices at Key Markets

Type	Origin	Location	Purity	Delivery Terms	Price (€/kg)	Previous Price	Change (%)	Update Date
Hulled	IN	New Delhi	99.90%	FOB	1.96	1.95	+0.51	2025-07-19
Hulled, EU-Grade	IN	New Delhi	99.98%	FOB	2.07	2.06	+0.49	2025-07-19
Hulled, EU-Grade	IN	New Delhi	99.97%	FOB	2.04	2.03	+0.49	2025-07-19
Natural, Golden	EG	Kairo	99.5%	FOB	2.35	2.35	0.00	2025-07-18
Hulled	TD	Berlin	99.95%	FCA	1.73	1.73	0.00	2025-07-18

Market Sentiment:

• India: Soft to cautious as monsoon risks weigh on confidence
• China: Stable but price-sensitive, favoring direct African procurements
• Turkey: Conservative, with buyers actively seeking new origins but sidelined from hulled premium grades
• South Korea: Bullish, full tender allocation at high prices

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• China imported 631,748 MT (Jan–May 2025), a 14% YoY increase, with top suppliers Niger (319,163 MT), Togo (96,257 MT), and Ethiopia (56,870 MT).
• Average import prices to China fell to $1,413/MT (-17%), highlighting buyer resistance and market-wide price pressures.
• South Korea successfully closed the 5th TRQ tender—15,000 MT awarded at $1,369–$1,466/MT, reinforcing tightening supply outlook.
• Turkey: Diversifying sourcing as high domestic prices and limited Brazilian supply force adaptation; hulled market participation remains reduced due to price constraints.
• India reported 604,000 hectares sown (+8.2% YoY), but heavy rainfall poses logistical and development risk. Domestic prices for white sesame are down 2.7–6.3%, while black sesame is steady and some red sesame is up marginally.
• Pakistan: Production forecast stable at 300,000 MT (despite lower acreage), with yield dependent on favorable August rainfall conditions.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Key Drivers

• Firm Asian demand despite market-wide price sensitivity, especially in China and South Korea.
• Price volatility in India linked to monsoon risks and increased acreage; speculative positioning by traders likely to intensify if monsoon disruptions persist.
• South Korean and Chinese tenders reflect buyer willingness to pay premiums—for now—underlining concerns about global stock adequacy.
• Pakistan crop outlook currently robust due to experienced growers and favorable weather, but August rainfall remains a wildcard.

🌦 Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• India: IMD forecasts prolonged heavy monsoon activity across eastern, central, and southern belts through the next week; risk of flooding in low-lying fields and possible shipping delays.
• Pakistan: Generally favorable conditions, but yield hinges on moderate rainfall during August. Excess rain could impact crops, but extended dry spells also risk yield reduction.
• Africa: Mixed patterns in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Mozambique, with southern/western growing areas expected to see normal precipitation levels, but vigilance warranted for potential dry spells in late July/early August.

🌏 Global Production & Inventories — Country Comparison

Country	2025 Projected Production (MT)	Year-on-Year Change	Export/Import Notes
India	To be determined (sowing +8.2%)	Increase	Heavy monsoon risk could alter final numbers
Pakistan	300,000	Stable	Crop in excellent condition, but lower planting
China (Imports)	631,748 (Jan–May)	+14%	Front-loaded imports from Niger, Togo, Ethiopia
South Korea (Imports)	15,000 (5th TRQ)	Stable	Premium pricing, strong allocation
Turkey	n/a	Varied	Diversifying, especially from Ethiopia, Chad, Sudan, Tanzania

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟠 Buyers (China, South Korea): Maintain active sourcing from Africa; monitor Indian monsoon impacts closely for price movement opportunities.
• 🔵 Indian Traders/Exporters: Hedge against monsoon-induced volatility; consider flexible shipment schedules.
• ⚪ European Buyers: Focus on quality segregation (hulled/EU-grade); diversify origins as supply tightens.
• 🟢 Turkish Processors: Explore alternative supplier contracts in East Africa as Brazilian supply tightens and domestic prices remain high.
• 🟠 Speculators: Watch August weather data for trigger points, especially in India/Pakistan.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, Indicative)

Market/Grade	Current (€)	3-Day Forecast (€)	Sentiment
IN (Hulled, 99.98%, New Delhi)	2.07	2.06 – 2.08	Range-bound; monitor monsoon
IN (Hulled, 99.90%, New Delhi)	1.96	1.95 – 1.98	Soft; watch for weather-driven moves
EG (Natural, Golden, Kairo)	2.35	2.34 – 2.37	Stable, strong quality demand
DE (Hulled, Chad Origin, Berlin)	1.73	1.72 – 1.75	Stable