Experts from the US, Canada and other countries around the world believe that a global shortage is expected in durum wheat, its production in 2023 may be insufficient to meet demand from major importers, reports Graintrade according to Progressive Farmer.
According to the USDA forecast, the United States will harvest 54 million bushels of durum in 2023, which is 16% or 9.9 million bushels less than the 2022 crop. Statistics Canada experts have not yet published their forecast for the yield and gross harvest of major agricultural crops, but some Canadian experts estimate durum production at a maximum of 4 million tonnes.
Not only quantity but also quality is a question mark
At the same time, all market participants are concerned not only about the quantity but also the quality of the future crop. The quality of durum wheat is expected to be quite poor, reducing supplies to major pasta importers and producers such as Italy, and leading to shortages in Canada and the United States.
The shortage of durum wheat in Italy may be linked not only to reduced production in the US and Canada, but also to its own shortfall caused by excessive rainfall in May and the first half of June. Against the background of dwindling durum stocks in Italy at the start of the season and poor quality, prices (especially for high quality grain) have already risen to €460/t or $570/t.
News of reduced wheat quality in Germany due to prolonged rainfall and reduced production in Spain will lead to further price rises for high quality grain.
According to COAG, the drought in Spain damaged 80% of the wheat crop and led to significant losses in the cereals sector. Grain production fell by 67% compared to 2022, from 15.5 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes, and the wheat harvest was the lowest in decades.
Demand for cereals in Spain is around 36.1 million tonnes per year, so the country will be forced to increase imports. However, given the difficulties with supplies from Ukraine, Spain will have to look for alternative suppliers, such as Argentina or Brazil.
Source: Graintrade