Soybean and soybean oil markets are experiencing significant volatility this month as geopolitical maneuvering, shifting tariff policies, and weak demand continue to drive uncertainty. The recent changes in US tariff policy—now temporarily delayed by the Court of Appeals—add to the existing turbulence, overshadowing any hope of stability in global agricultural trade. Traders and processors alike are weighing the probability that the White House’s attempt to impose punitive tariffs will ultimately be blocked, potentially disrupting planned US trade strategies with key partners such as China and Canada. This uncertainty is being reflected in softer oilseed and oil prices across major exchanges from Chicago to Brazil, as well as Eastern European ports.
Meanwhile, soybean oil futures in Chicago have dropped sharply—down 2.2% over two days, touching $1,035/t—a trend mirrored in Brazil and Black Sea origins. Fundamental demand is softening on the export side, particularly due to rumors that Canadian rapeseed oil duties, critical for US biofuel production, may be cancelled. On the supply side, strong harvests in South America are boosting processing volumes and putting further pressure on prices, while Ukraine and Russia see parallel declines in sunflower complex pricing. Looking ahead, the combination of weather risks, bullish South American output, shrinking import demand, and ongoing trade disputes cast a complex shadow over the next quarter’s pricing outlook.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Purity | Organic | Location | FOB Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price | Date | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yellow, Organic | 99.8% | Yes | Beijing | $0.77 | $0.70 | 2025-06-04 | +10% | Bullish (domestic supply concerns) |
| China | Yellow | 99.5% | No | Beijing | $0.69 | $0.63 | 2025-06-04 | +9.5% | Stable to bullish |
| USA | No. 2 | – | No | Washington D.C. | $0.33 | $0.33 | 2025-05-28 | 0% | Bearish (export headwinds) |
| India | Sortex Clean | – | No | New Delhi | $0.71 | $0.71 | 2025-05-28 | 0% | Stable |
| Ukraine | – | – | No | Odesa | $0.36 | $0.36 | 2025-05-28 | 0% | Softening (processors holding back) |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- US exports: Dampened by tariff uncertainty and weak Chinese demand; pace remains slower than last year.
- Brazil: Record soybean harvest and expanding oilseed crush, pulling domestic soybean oil prices down $20/t in one week to $995-$1,000/t FOB.
- Ukraine/Russia: Soft demand, processors pausing new purchases, expecting further oil price weakness. Prices eased to $1,090-1,110/t (Ukraine, sunflower oil export).
- China: Domestic supply is tight, supporting prices for premium/organic beans. Import demand softens slightly.
📊 Fundamentals
- Tariff Policy: US-China trade tensions, ongoing US legal battles over new tariffs, outlook for Canadian canola duties directly impacting soy complex margins and competitiveness.
- Crude Oil: Brent futures fell 1.4% to $64.1/bbl. Lower energy prices usually weigh on biofuel input prices, including soya oil.
- Speculative Positioning: CFTC data (latest): Managed money reducing long positions amid uncertainty, adding to downside pressure in futures markets.
- Inventories: Ample South American and Black Sea stocks offset US supply weakness and fears over tighter Chinese import controls.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- USA: Forecasts indicate stable to slightly wetter weather in the Midwest, aiding crop emergence but causing isolated planting delays. No severe yield threats yet.
- Brazil/Argentina: Harvest nearly complete; conditions were favourable, reinforcing record supply.
- Ukraine/Russia: Timely rains improving moisture profiles for sunflower/soy plantings, but further precipitation will be needed for optimum pod set.
- India: Outlook remains seasonally dry, some concern if monsoon arrival stalls.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Forecast Production (mmt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (mmt) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 112.5 | 7.5 |
| Brazil | 160.0 | 34.0 |
| Argentina | 50.0 | 6.0 |
| China (imports) | 18.0 | 30.0 |
| Ukraine | 5.2 | 1.0 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Exporters: Lock in volumes on upticks, but stay agile—macro risk keeps downside possibilities alive.
- Processors (US/Ukraine): Consider delaying additional raw soy purchases; expect further softness in oil and meal.
- Importers (China, India): Take advantage of dips for forward coverage, particularly if premium/organic origination is required.
- Speculators: Remain cautious—geopolitical risk and legal headwinds may trigger sharp price moves both up or down.
- Watch US court decisions on tariffs, Brazilian export flows, and Midwest weather for directional cues in the coming weeks.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/Market | Latest Price (USD/t) | Forecast (USD/t) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | CBOT | 334 | 328 – 338 | Sideways/Weak |
| Brazil | FOB Paranagua | 995 | 975 – 1010 | Down |
| Ukraine | Black Sea | 1,100 | 1,080 – 1,115 | Down |
| China | Domestic/FOB | 770 | 750 – 785 | Stable to soft |