Global Sugar Market Outlook 2025/26: Surplus Rises Amid Production Surge in Brazil and India

The global sugar market is entering a pivotal phase as the 2025/26 marketing year approaches, with major shifts in production and trade flows shaping the outlook for prices and supply. According to the latest USDA World Market Report, world sugar production is forecast to rise significantly, primarily driven by bumper crops in Brazil and India—the two largest sugar producers. This increase is expected to more than offset declines in the European Union, where beet acreage is falling, and in the United States. Favorable weather conditions in both Brazil and India are enabling record harvests, while global consumption continues to expand, though at a slower rate than supply growth. As a result, global sugar inventories are projected to rise for the second consecutive year, easing concerns over tightness that dominated recent seasons. However, export competition is intensifying, especially as EU and Thai shipments decline, and volatility remains heightened due to fluctuating ethanol/sugar production ratios and shifting weather patterns. For market participants, understanding the evolving balance of supply, demand, and trade is crucial for navigating the coming months.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Sentiment
LT	ICUMSA 45, 0.2-1.2 mm	Mirijampole	FCA	0.53	0.00	2025-05-26	Neutral
LT	ICUMSA 45, 0.2-1.2 mm	Mirijampole	FCA	0.54	0.00	2025-05-26	Neutral
GB	ICUMSA 32, 0.3-0.6 mm	Norfolk	FCA	0.56	0.00	2025-05-20	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global production projected to rise by 8.6 million tonnes to 189.3 million tonnes in 2025/26.
• Global consumption expected to increase by 2.49 million tonnes to 177.92 million tonnes.
• Exports are forecast to decline, mainly due to reduced shipments from the EU and Thailand.
• Ending stocks to rise to 41.18 million tonnes, up from 38.31 million tonnes last year, driven by stock accumulation in India and China.

📊 Fundamentals

• Brazil: Production set to reach a record 44.7 million tonnes (+1 million tonnes YoY) due to favorable weather. Ethanol share increases to 51% of cane crush, sugar share declines to 49%.
• India: Output expected to surge 25% to 35.3 million tonnes, driven by increased acreage and excellent weather. Exports and stocks both rise.
• Thailand: Production up 2% to 10.3 million tonnes. Exports decline due to competition and slower demand from food processors.
• EU: Production falls 9% to 15 million tonnes as beet acreage drops 10% in France and Germany. Imports rise, exports fall.
• US: Production and exports both decline.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Continued favorable rainfall and mild temperatures support strong cane yields for the remainder of the harvest season.
• India: Monsoon forecasts remain positive, with above-average rainfall expected in key sugar-producing states (Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh), supporting robust output.
• Thailand: Weather conditions stable; moderate rainfall aiding cane growth, but not enough to spur a sharp jump in yields.
• EU: Dry conditions in parts of France and Germany may further limit beet yields, compounding acreage declines.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	43.7	44.7	7.8
India	28.2	35.3	12.2
EU	16.5	15.0	3.1
Thailand	10.1	10.3	3.6
China	10.0	10.0	8.0
World	180.7	189.3	41.18

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Global surplus and rising stocks are likely to keep a lid on prices in the near term, especially with export competition intensifying.
• Watch for volatility from Brazil’s ethanol/sugar production mix and Indian export policy changes.
• EU market may see increased import demand due to falling production—opportunities for exporters outside the EU.
• Monitor weather in Brazil and India closely through the monsoon and harvest periods for any sign of yield risk.
• Short-term: Price consolidation likely; medium-term bias is neutral-to-bearish unless weather disrupts major producers.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
LT (Mirijampole)	0.53-0.54	0.53-0.54	Stable
GB (Norfolk)	0.56	0.55-0.56	Stable
DE (Berlin)	0.66	0.65-0.66	Stable