Global Wheat Market Analysis: Prices Hold, Weather Risks Loom, and Cautious Sentiment Prevails

The wheat market is currently demonstrating notable stability across major exchanges, but the undercurrents reveal a cautiously bearish sentiment. After a protracted period of volatility driven by uncertain crop outlooks in major producing regions, this week’s trading sessions have seen little price movement in both Euronext (MATIF) and CBOT Wheat futures. The MATIF September 2025 wheat contract closed unchanged at €201.75/t and the CBOT July 2025 wheat contract settled at 539.75 USc/bu, down modestly by 0.42%. While this signals short-term consolidation, market fundamentals remain dynamic: a mix of ample global stocks, tempered export demand, and a close watch on Northern Hemisphere weather.

Speculative positioning has recently trended more neutral, with many traders unwinding large bets that anticipated a tighter supply as crop prospects in the Black Sea improve. However, substantial risks remain, particularly from adverse weather in the US Plains and the EU, as well as geopolitical volatility in the Black Sea region, both factors that could abruptly change sentiment and pricing. In physical markets, FOB Wheat offers from key exporters such as France, Ukraine, and the US have settled into a narrow premium range, reflecting a delicate balance of supply and demand in early summer trading. For now, the wheat market awaits decisive signals from both the upcoming USDA reports and the development of the 2025/26 crop; traders and end-users should be prepared for swift shifts as weather data and inventory forecasts continue to play an outsized role.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Euronext (MATIF) Wheat Futures (EUR/t)

Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sep 25	€201.75	0.00%	Neutral
Dec 25	€213.00	0.00%	Neutral
Mar 26	€220.75	0.00%	Neutral
May 26	€225.00	0.00%	Neutral

CBOT Wheat Futures (USc/bu)

Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Jul 25	539.75	-0.42%	Bearish
Sep 25	554.50	-0.45%	Bearish
Dec 25	577.25	-0.35%	Bearish
Mar 26	596.75	-0.38%	Bearish

FOB Wheat Offers (Updated 2025-06-05)

Origin	Spec/Quality	Location	Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price
US	protein min. 11.5%	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.24	0.23
France	protein min. 11.0%	Paris	FOB	0.28	0.27
Ukraine	protein min. 11.0%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: Stable to slightly higher global wheat carryover projected for 2024/25. No major global revisions in the latest WASDE, but analysts watch for changes in the July release.
• Crop Acreage: US planted acres expected to be steady; EU planting up slightly in France but down in Germany and Spain. Ukraine and Russia are rebuilding the area despite the high cost and infrastructure issues.
• Inventories: World wheat stocks are at multi-year lows in some exporting regions but are buffered by strong Black Sea output. US and EU inventories remain tight but not critical.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net-short CBOT wheat contracts, reflecting scepticism about major weather-driven rallies in the near term.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Outlook

• Black Sea Region: Ukraine exports remain resilient; Russia’s ample harvest is buoying global supply, despite ongoing geopolitical risks and sanctions impacts.
• EU: French crop in good-to-fair shape; weather is of increasing concern for Germany and Spain.
• US: Winter wheat harvest advances in Plains; spring wheat seeding complete, but Midwest faces spotty drought risk.
• Asia & Middle East: Strong import demand from Egypt, Bangladesh, and Turkey; buyers remain opportunistic, capitalizing on dips.

Major Exporters/Importers – Production & Stocks Table

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Russia	85.0	13.5
EU	132.5	15.1
US	50.5	16.5
Ukraine	23.0	4.2
China	137.7	138.0
Egypt (import)	—	— (est. 4.5)

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• US Plains: Forecasts call for above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall next 10 days, increasing stress on late-planted winter wheat and spring wheat emergence in northern states.
• EU: France slightly dry but not critical; Germany and Spain flagged for potential drought. Yield forecasts are being revised down modestly in Spain.
• Black Sea: Seasonal weather; minor dry spots in southern Russia, but overall good soil moisture. Ukraine’s conditions are mostly adequate.
• Australia: Timely rains in New South Wales and Victoria, but long-term forecasts tilt drier than normal as El Niño risks resurface.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Hedgers: Maintain moderate coverage; lock in profit margins on rallies, especially before key USDA and EU data releases.
• Exporters: Use dips to secure export business, with Black Sea and EU origins still competitive globally.
• Buyers/End-users: Maintain staggered buying; consider forward coverage for late summer/autumn needs if weather turns adverse.
• Speculators: Short-term bias remains slightly bearish, but watch for weather-driven volatility spikes.
• Monitor: Weekly weather updates, Black Sea logistics/exports, and upcoming USDA acreage and stocks reports.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Current Price	Forecast Range	Outlook
MATIF	Sep 25	€201.75/t	€200 – €204/t	Sideways/Stable
CBOT	Jul 25	539.75 USc/bu	535 – 545 USc/bu	Weak/Flat
ICE UK	Jul 25	£160.25/t	£159 – £162/t	Firm/Stable