Global Wheat Market Update: Indian Export Curbs Signal Tight Supply Amid Uncertain Weather

The global wheat market is entering a pivotal phase as ongoing export restrictions from India, one of the world’s major producers, continue to tighten supply conditions. The Indian government recently reaffirmed its stance on maintaining export controls until the next production season, underscoring its determination to prioritize domestic food security and price stability. This policy, originally enacted in response to weather-induced crop shortfalls in 2022, remains firmly in place despite mounting pressure from traders eager to capitalize on global demand. With India’s new season production estimates yet to materialize, policymakers have signaled no imminent change, promising a fresh review only after confirmation of adequate domestic stocks.

For international markets, India’s persistent absence as an exporter is compounding volatility triggered by weather risks in other key regions. North America’s spring wheat yield outlook has been affected by below-average rainfall, while parts of Eastern Europe are still facing dry conditions. In this climate, wheat prices have largely held steady at elevated levels, with slight variances reflecting localized market sentiment and logistical differences. Against this backdrop, traders and buyers must navigate a global market defined by cautious government policies, unpredictable weather, and a delicate balance between food security and export opportunities.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Protein Min.	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US	CBOT, Washington D.C.	11.50%	FOB	0.21	0.23	-8.7%	Bearish/Stable
FR	Euronext, Paris	11.00%	FOB	0.27	0.29	-6.9%	Mixed
UA	Odesa	11.00%	FOB	0.19	0.19	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Continued ban on wheat exports holds back a major supply source until 2026, guarding against domestic shortages and price inflation.
• Europe: EU production forecasts remain steady, but localized dryness in France and Eastern Europe is raising concerns over yield quality.
• Black Sea Region: Ukrainian ports are maintaining stable shipment levels despite logistical and security issues.
• North America: US and Canadian wheat output is pressured by erratic weather; USDA crop progress shows variability across states.
• Demand: Strong in North Africa and the Middle East where importers are seeking alternative origins to offset Indian shortfall.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent data indicates global ending stocks at multi-year lows with tighter carryout in major exporters.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money funds have reduced bullish bets, reflecting caution amid uncertain forecasts.
• Inventories: Major exporters (US, EU, Russia) expected to reduce inventories through late 2025.
• Policy Outlook: India’s next policy review will hinge on the 2025-26 harvest; current stance reinforces global supply-side risks.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Plains: Recent rains have improved soil moisture in Kansas and Oklahoma but drier conditions persist in Montana and the Dakotas, potentially curbing yield gains.
• Western Europe: Cool, wet spell forecast in France and Germany over the next 7 days, beneficial for grain filling but disease risks may increase.
• Black Sea: Mixed patterns; Ukraine’s southern regions expect warm, dry weather accelerating harvest, while central grain belt faces scattered showers.
• India: Monsoon progress is normal, setting the stage for a typical planting season, but persistent heat waves may affect germination in northern states.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Year-on-Year Change (%)
US	49	15	-8%
EU	134	10	-3%
Russia	89	16	-7%
India	112	14	-6%
China	135	63	-2%
Ukraine	21	2	0%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Indian government signals closely; any movement toward export relaxation could trigger sharp price corrections.
• Watch Black Sea developments for any escalation in logistics or security that may disrupt flows from Ukraine and Russia.
• Hedge physical positions as weather outlook remains variable, particularly for US and EU crop development in the next month.
• End-users: Consider forward coverage for Q4 2025/Q1 2026 to lock in manageable costs amid low global stocks.
• Speculators: Maintain neutral to moderately long stance until there’s greater clarity on India’s policy and US yield realization.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional)

Exchange/Region	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (Next 3 Days, EUR/kg)	Trend
CBOT (US)	0.21	0.20 – 0.22	Stable to Slightly Bearish
Euronext (FR)	0.27	0.26 – 0.28	Sideways
Odesa (UA)	0.19	0.19 – 0.20	Stable