The global wheat market witnessed a significant downturn, with wheat quotations on world exchanges experiencing a substantial decline of 2.3-4.2%. The shift from March to May contracts prompted traders to actively close short positions and open long ones, contributing to the price drop, which amounted to 0.3-7.2% throughout the week. Notably, European wheat faced the most significant depreciation.
On Friday, March wheat futures on Euronext plunged by €6.25/t to €184.5/t, marking the lowest level since August 2020.
May futures also recorded notable declines:
- Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago dropped by 3.4% to $204.9/t (-2.8% for the week)
- Hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City fell by 4.2% to $207.4/t (-0.7%)
- Hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis dipped by 2.4% to $236.5/t (+0.3%)
- Wheat futures on Paris Euronext saw a 2.3% decrease to €191.5/t or $207.7/t (-7.6%)
Even with the European Commission’s downgrade of the EU crop forecast and worsening crop conditions in France, European wheat prices continued to decline.
The forecast for soft wheat production in the EU for 2023/24 MR was revised down to 125.621 million tons, with ending stocks estimated at 19.3 million tons. In France, the condition of soft wheat crops decreased slightly, while spring wheat sowing progress was hampered by heavy rains.
Despite the downward trend, wheat export sales from the USA surged by 40% compared to the previous week, reaching 327.3 thousand tons. Meanwhile, Russian wheat exports for February totaled 3.8 million tons, with a season estimate of 48.6 million tons.
Ukraine accelerated its wheat exports, shipping 2.55 million tons in February and totaling 11.77 million tons for the season, surpassing last year’s pace by 3.8%. Expectations of further exports and exceeding USDA forecasts are bolstered by large grain stocks and farmers’ willingness to sell.
With approximately 100 ships poised for port entry in Ukraine, an additional 3-4 million tons of wheat are anticipated to be exported by season-end, potentially surpassing the USDA forecast of 15 million tons.