The Guar seeds market is bracing for a potentially transformative season in 2024, as climatic, agronomic, and economic factors converge. With early monsoon rainfall hitting key growing regions in India, farmers face a pivotal planting decision that may reshape the entire production landscape. Historically, guar has been seen as a fallback crop, particularly in Rajasthan’s canal-irrigated regions, where preference is often given to cash crops like moong and cotton if weather conditions are favorable. Early rains this year have prompted a notable shift, as many growers are already considering alternative crops, especially moong, which may yield better returns and fit more snugly into the accelerated monsoon timeline.
Despite a robust export environment for guar gum and sustained domestic demand for byproducts such as churi and korma, the future supply of guar seeds remains clouded by uncertainty. Sizable but declining stock levels stoke concerns of potential tightness later in the year, especially as no official acreage figures will be available until the monsoon stabilizes. Strong export demand, averaging about 28,000–29,000 tonnes per month, is likely to keep market sentiment bullish, providing price support even as daily arrivals hover around 10,000 bags. Prices for seeds, gum, and byproducts have remained resilient, further bolstered by firm domestic consumption and positive international demand. In this context, every drop of rainfall and every field sown becomes a key variable in the evolving guar market equation.
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Guar gum
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FOB 4.06 €/kg
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Guar gum
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FOB 4.20 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Closing Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guar Seeds | IN | Major Mandi | $58.80 | +0.3% | Bullish |
| Guar Gum | IN | New Delhi | $116.30 | +0.5% | Bullish |
| Guar Gum (FOB) | IN | New Delhi | $4.20 (per kg) | 0% | Stable/Firm |
| Guar Gum (FOB) | VN | Hanoi | $4.06 (per kg) | 0% | Stable/Firm |
| Churi | IN | Major Mandi | $37.20 | 0% | Firm |
| Korma | IN | Major Mandi | $49.70–$50.30 | 0% | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Early and evenly distributed monsoon rains in India risk a shift toward alternative crops (notably moong), potentially shrinking guar acreage this season.
- Guar sowing is expected to lag, with only a full monsoon picture clarifying actual acreage.
- Current daily guar arrivals (~10,000 bags) and resilient price action indicate ongoing market tightness.
- Export demand for guar gum remains robust, averaging 28,000–29,000 tonnes per month. Domestic byproduct consumption is strong and steady.
- Stock levels, while sizable, are believed to be lower than last year—setting the stage for tighter supply later in 2024.
📊 Fundamentals
- Stocks: Estimated to be below last year—precise data pending.
- Sowing Trends: In Rajasthan and canal-irrigated areas, early preference is for moong and cotton; guar remains a fallback unless monsoon is delayed.
- Prices: Guar seeds (~$58.80/quintal) and gum ($116.30/quintal) remain supported by fundamental demand; churi and korma prices are firm on strong domestic feed demand.
- Export Market: Guar gum and derivatives are in demand globally, especially for the oil & gas, food, and pharma sectors.
| Country | Production (’000 tonnes) | Stocks (’000 tonnes) | Export Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~1,700 | Declining | >80% |
| Pakistan | 80 | Stable | <10% |
| Others | Low | Negligible | Minimal |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Early monsoon progression is delivering ample rainfall in Rajasthan and Haryana, the two main guar-producing states.
- Short-term (next 10 days): Collected forecasts indicate continued showers, likely favoring early sowing of moong and cotton.
- Should rains remain strong, guar acreage could drop; if rains falter, late guar sowing may compensate.
- Near-term risk of some acreage loss to competing pulses if conditions persist throughout June.
- No major pest/disease threats reported so far.
📆 Outlook & Recommendations
- For Farmers:
- Monitor monsoon patterns—opt for moong or cotton only if rains remain timely and regular. Guar remains a fallback in case of rain delays.
- Consider pre-selling part of the 2024 expected harvest to lock in current prices, especially if sowing decisions favor other crops.
- For Traders/Buyers:
- Use ongoing market firmness as an opportunity to hedge, but be alert to acreage updates post-monsoon.
- Monitor export flows and arrivals; early signs of supply tightness later in the year could result in price rallies.
- Explore forward contracts for guar gum derivatives given robust global demand and limited new crop uncertainty.
| Product | Region/Exchange | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guar Seeds | Jodhpur/NCDEX | 58.80 | 59.10 | 59.40 |
| Guar Gum | New Delhi/NCDEX | 116.30 | 116.70 | 117.10 |