Recent developments in the Guar seeds market depict a landscape struggling to find its next direction, with prices consolidating after a bout of weakness. In major Indian mandis such as Jodhpur and Ahmedabad, both guar gum and guar seed have faced notable declines driven by waning industrial demand. Guar gum plummeted by USD 4.80 per quintal in both centers, dropping to USD 115.80–117.00, while guar seed lost between USD 1.20–2.40, settling in the USD 60.00–61.20 range. However, exporters are still servicing markets in the US, Russia, Italy, Japan, and France, though persistent uncertainty over US tariff policies has put some transactions on hold. Speculative trading on the NCDEX also saw a pullback, adding to recent softness. Yet the floor for prices seems well-supported, with further downsides unlikely thanks to stable export flows and forecasts for a normal Indian monsoon that could boost sowing interest and improve long-term supply dynamics. As the market digests these developments, any sustained uptick in industrial or export demand could swiftly reverse the recent bearish trend, presenting new opportunities for both producers and traders.
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Guar gum
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Guar gum
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FOB 4.20 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Exchange/Market | Product | Latest Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jodhpur Mandi | Guar Seed | 60.60–61.20 | -2.40 | Weak |
| Jodhpur Mandi | Guar Gum | 115.80–117.00 | -4.80 | Bearish |
| Ahmedabad Mandi | Guar Seed | 60.00–60.60 | -1.20 | Soft |
| Ahmedabad Mandi | Guar Gum | 115.80–117.00 | -4.80 | Bearish |
| NCDEX (June) | Guar Seed & Gum | N/A | Lower | Speculation Down |
| FOB Hanoi | Guar Gum (VN) | 4.06/kg | Unchanged | Stable |
| FOB New Delhi | Guar Gum (IN) | 4.20/kg | Unchanged | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Industrial Demand: Remains muted, keeping pressure on spot and forward prices.
- Export Demand: Continues to the US, Russia, Italy, Japan, and France, but faces uncertainty due to the US tariff environment.
- Farmer Sentiment: Sluggish prices have discouraged sowing, though prospects for a normal Indian monsoon may reverse this trend.
- Speculative Activity: Weaker interest in NCDEX June contracts has added to price softness.
📊 Fundamentals
- Major Producers: India (Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana), Vietnam (noted FOB offers)
- Recent Price Movement: Guar seed and gum off recent lows; stabilization likely barring further demand shocks.
- Comparative 2024 vs. 2023: Most recent declines are sharper compared to last year, but overall volatility persists with changing global demand and weather prospects.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- India (Key Growing States): IMD forecasts a normal monsoon for Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Haryana. Sowing window opens soon, with average to above-average rainfall supporting potential recovery in acreage.
- Risks: Any deviation from monsoon forecasts (e.g., late onset or erratic rainfall) could quickly alter acreage and output expectations.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023 Production (est. ‘000 MT) | Stocks (‘000 MT) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 1,100 | 320 |
| Pakistan | 55 | 15 |
| Others (incl. Vietnam) | 20 | 5 |
- India: Overwhelmingly dominant in both production and export supplies.
- Stock Replenishment: Remains slow-moving given weak domestic and export off-take.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-Term: Price declines likely bottomed; look for stability with a possible mild rebound.
- Medium-Term: Watch for monsoon progression and export order pickup (especially from the US and EU).
- Long-Term: If demand revives and the monsoon is favorable, prices could stage a modest uptrend.
- Strategy:
- Producers: Hold stocks if storage allows; avoid panic selling near current lows.
- Traders: Look for buying opportunities on dips, especially if rainfall remains on track.
- Exporters: Focus on stable clients but be ready to capitalize on any easing of tariff barriers.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Price Range (USD/quintal) | Forecast Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Jodhpur Mandi (Seed) | 60.80–61.50 | Stable to Slight Up |
| Jodhpur Mandi (Gum) | 116.00–117.00 | Stable |
| Ahmedabad Mandi (Seed) | 60.20–61.00 | Stable |
| NCDEX (June) | N/A | Flat |
- Upside is capped unless demand recovers, but monsoon optimism limits further downside.
- Monitor rainfall updates and export policy news for near-term catalysts.
