Guar Seeds Market Holds Steady Despite Demand Doldrums: Outlook and Drivers

The Guar seeds market experienced a mild price retreat last week, with Jodhpur mandi prices slipping by around USD 6 per ton to settle within the USD 617–624 per ton range. Ahmedabad mandi prices echoed this, trading at USD 611–617 per ton. This softening was primarily attributed to reduced demand from guar gum manufacturers; however, prices have not collapsed thanks to consistent interest from stockiest and ongoing NCDEX deliveries, which continue to inject stability into the market. According to market analysts, immediate demand remains tepid, yet the structured buying by stockiest is expected to keep floors under current price levels, preventing abrupt declines. As guar remains a critical raw material for the booming oil and gas drilling industry, as well as a staple for food sectors, global market watchfulness is paramount.

The subtle dynamism between local Indian mandis, the export market, and industrial demand sets the stage for a potential rebound, particularly should end-user activity revive or weather patterns threaten yields in major producing regions. Here’s a full breakdown of prices, market drivers, fundamentals, and near-term forecasts for stakeholders planning their next moves.

📈 Prices

Mandi / Exchange	Last Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Jodhpur (India)	USD 617–624/ton	-USD 6	Stable to Soft
Ahmedabad (India)	USD 611–617/ton	-USD 6	Cautiously Steady
Guar Gum FOB (Hanoi, VN)	EUR 4.09/kg	No change	Stable
Guar Gum FOB (New Delhi, IN)	EUR 4.25/kg	No change	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Weak Milling Demand: Guar gum manufacturers have slowed purchases, holding out for lower input costs.
• Stockist Activity: Steady buying and ongoing NCDEX deliveries are supporting floor prices.
• Oil & Gas Sector: Demand for guar gum in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) remains a key export pillar; any uptick here can quickly buoy prices.
• Export Competitiveness: The INR’s relative stability and shipping logistics from India support global availability, but a rebound in global demand is required for significant price movements.

📊 Fundamentals

• Latest USDA/FAO Reports: India dominates production, with 80–85% of global output. Upcoming sowing estimates for Rajasthan (key state) remain in line with last year.
• Global Stock Levels: Inventories are considered manageable, with no immediate concerns of shortage. However, any localized weather stress can swiftly change the outlook.
• Speculative Interest: Domestic speculators are active, but positions are modest, hinting at neutral sentiment pending crop/monsoon news.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• Rajasthan & Gujarat: Short-term forecasts indicate mostly normal to slightly below-normal rainfall in key guar seed belts. Agro-meteorologists warn a sustained dry phase could shrink yields if it extends beyond the next 10 days.
• Disease/Pest Risks: So far, field reports flag no widespread concerns, supporting stability in yield outlook.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Production (2024/25E)	Ending Stocks	Key Notes
India	~1.2–1.4 million tons	Stable	Largest global producer; supplies >80% of world guar
Pakistan	~150,000 tons	Moderate	Minor but growing supplier
Other (Africa, USA)	<50,000 tons	Marginal	Production remains niche

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Stockists: Maintain moderate buying; downside limited but upside capped unless demand revives.
• Manufacturers: Lock in procurement for near-term needs; no immediate supply risks, but monitor monsoon closely.
• Exporters: Watch global gum demand, especially from US oil sector.
• Speculators: Adopt a neutral stance; wait for clear direction from weather or export market signals.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Forecast Price (Range)	Trend
Jodhpur	USD 615–623/ton	Slightly Soft
Ahmedabad	USD 610–616/ton	Stable to Soft
NCDEX (nearby)	USD 620–625/ton	Stable