The Guar seeds and gum market is currently in a phase of cautious stability, balancing the effects of muted domestic demand with the ongoing strength of export orders and limited arrivals in physical markets. Over the past week, Guar gum prices in the Jodhpur mandi experienced a modest correction, easing by about USD 110 per ton to trade within the range of USD 1,098–1,110 per ton. This pullback is primarily attributed to a sluggish offtake by gum powder manufacturers, who are exercising caution amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Meanwhile, guar seed prices have largely weathered this softening: Jodhpur quotes remain stable at USD 617–624 per ton, while Hisar prices range from USD 564–576 per ton.
Market experts emphasize that while buying enthusiasm has diminished, the prospect of a drastic price decline remains slim thanks to restricted supply pipelines and enduring export commitments—especially from oil and gas sectors using guar gum for fracking. Strategic stock holding and aspirations for a stronger export market ahead of the festival season further underpin market resilience. All told, the guar complex is navigating through a measured phase, with price corrections proving shallow and short-lived.
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📈 Prices
| Product | Location | Exchange/Market | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guar Gum | Jodhpur | Physical Mandi | USD 1,098–1,110/t | -USD 110/t | Softening, but supported |
| Guar Seed | Jodhpur | Physical Mandi | USD 617–624/t | Unchanged | Stable |
| Guar Seed | Hisar | Physical Mandi | USD 564–576/t | Unchanged | Stable |
| Guar Gum (FOB) | New Delhi (IN) | Export | €4.27/kg | +€0.02/kg | Firm/Uptrend |
| Guar Gum (FOB) | Hanoi (VN) | Export | €4.11/kg | +€0.02/kg | Firm/Uptrend |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Demand Outlook: Domestic gum powder manufacturers have eased purchases, while export inquiries—especially from the oil and gas sector—are underpinning overall demand.
- Supply Situation: Arrivals in major mandis are limited following the off-season, with stocks held by processors and traders expected to meet near-term requirements.
- Inventory Levels: Market talk suggests moderate inventories, preventing oversupply. Export pipelines remain lively, cushioning domestic price corrections.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Key Drivers
- Recent price adjustments are due to weakened gum powder demand, but price risk to the downside is limited due to tight supply.
- Export sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with global fracking activity and food-grade applications providing a buffer against slower local demand.
- No significant changes in crop acreage or yield outlook have emerged, though market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming sowing forecasts.
- Speculative interest is subdued, as indicated by low volatility in spot markets and limited open interest changes on futures exchanges.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact
- Northern India (Rajasthan, Haryana): Last week’s rainfall was below the seasonal average, increasing concern about soil moisture as the next sowing window approaches.
- Forecast (next 7 days): Scattered showers (10–30 mm) are expected, but may be insufficient to fully alleviate dry conditions. Timely monsoon revival remains critical for the 2024/25 crop.
- Any delays or deficit in rainfall could limit new crop prospects, potentially tightening supply in the coming months.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Guar Seed Production (2023/24, est.) | Ending Stocks (2023/24, est.) |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~1.1 million tons | Low to moderate |
| Pakistan | ~110,000 tons | Tight |
| Other (mainly Africa) | ~30,000 tons | Minimal |
- India remains the dominant global supplier (over 80% market share).
- Export destinations include the US, China, Russia, and Europe, with industrial demand as the main driver.
📆 Trading & Price Outlook
- Guar seed and gum prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, supported by tight supply and robust export demand.
- Traders: Consider mild accumulation on price dips; opportunistic short-term selling can be done near USD 1,110/t (gum) if demand slows further, but limit downside risk via stop-losses.
- Processors: Maintain positions, as raw material availability could tighten if rainfall deficits persist.
- Exporters: Monitor global oilfield services activity for signs of renewed demand and adjust booking cycles accordingly.
- Buyers: Make staggered purchases to mitigate volatility risk. Short-term price dips offer opportunity for forward booking.
🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Market | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guar Gum | Jodhpur | USD 1,098–1,110/t | USD 1,098–1,112/t | USD 1,100–1,115/t |
| Guar Seed | Jodhpur | USD 617–624/t | USD 617–625/t | USD 618–627/t |
| Guar Seed | Hisar | USD 564–576/t | USD 564–578/t | USD 566–580/t |
