The guar seeds market is entering a period of historic tightness with sowing in key Indian regions—Rajasthan and Gujarat—down a staggering 53% year-on-year. This sharp contraction in acreage is the result of producers exiting after years of price volatility and loss, opting for alternative crops like maize, millet, and vegetables that promise quicker gains and less risk. The situation is compounded by limited stocks at the farm and warehouse levels, as well as a marked lack of new investment from both traders and industries. Guar gum’s global demand, especially for exports, has steadily waned, resulting in shrinking processing and speculation-driven price action. Yet, with the 2024–2025 crop forecast to be significantly smaller and the spot/cash prices in Indian exchanges rebounding above Rs 51.50–52/kg (with futures at Rs 52.50–52.60/kg), expectations are mounting that spot prices could break the Rs 60/kg barrier for the first time in several seasons.
Guar gum FOB prices are holding above EUR 4/kg in both India and Vietnam, with exporters gradually returning to the market as relative valuation improves. The current price trend, limited sowing, and sky-high pod values have also shifted farmer priorities from seed to fodder and vegetables, reinforcing the scarcity ahead. Wise market watchers should closely monitor supply pipelines, speculative build-ups, and the evolving weather outlook ahead of monsoons, as all signs suggest that the era of low guar prices is coming to an end.
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FOB 4.20 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Market Table
| Exchange/Market | Product | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmedabad (IN) Spot | Guar Seeds | Rs 51.50-52/kg | +3.8% | Bullish |
| Jodhpur (IN) Spot | Guar Seeds | Rs 51.50-52/kg | +3.5% | Bullish |
| NCDEX Futures | Guar Seeds | Rs 52.50-52.60/kg | +4.0% | Bullish |
| Jodhpur/Ahmedabad Spot | Guar Gum | Rs 96.50-97.50/kg | +3.5% | Firm |
| FOB Hanoi (VN) | Guar Gum, Powder | €4.05/kg | -0.7% | Neutral |
| FOB New Delhi (IN) | Guar Gum, Powder | €4.20/kg | -0.5% | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Sharp acreage drop: Sowing in Rajasthan/Gujarat down 53% y/y; only 47% of last year’s area covered.
- Production outlook: Estimated at just 3.5 million gori vs last decade’s averages of 6–7 million.
- Export shrinkage: Guar gum exports at 50% of peak as global industrial use tapers off.
- Alternative acreage: Major shift to maize, millet, vegetables—pushing seed output lower, with many farmers focusing on pods/fodder sales.
- Stocks: Minimal stocks in private and warehouse channels; little new farmer or trade hoarding.
- Speculation: Heightened futures activity as physical supply contracts—risk of volatility remains high.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Historical low production: Last decade has seen continuous decline in sown area and output (since 2011 peak).
- Guar price recovery: After bottoming out at Rs 27/kg seven years ago, spot values more than doubled in last few seasons.
- Guar gum prices: Stable in India/Vietnam above €4/kg, with narrow discount to refined grades.
- Industry stress: Many processors mothballed plants due to export/formulation slump and high input costs.
- Consumption trend: Domestic off-take robust in animal feed and food, but industrial segment weak.
☁️ Weather & Regional Outlook
- Rajasthan: Monsoon slightly delayed; dry spells could hamper late sowing and germination.
- Gujarat: Below-normal rainfall reported; soil moisture tight, cultivation risk elevated.
- Haryana: Sporadic storms; overall trend drier—supporting pod markets, but seed output could suffer.
Weather impact: With less rain forecast and limited irrigation, crop development (especially late sowings) is likely to be constrained, adding stress to already tight supply outlook.
🌐 Global Production & Inventory Table
| Country/Region | Guar Seed Output (’000 tonnes) | Guar Gum Exports (’000 tonnes) | Stock Position (’000 tonnes) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 380 | 165 | 35 | World’s top producer/exporter; current season sharply down |
| Pakistan | 30 | 7 | 4 | Secondary grower, mostly domestic use |
| Vietnam | 5 | 3 | 2 | Minor international trade, mostly processed gum |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish bias: Prices likely to breach Rs 60/kg on supply squeeze and speculative support.
- For exporters: Watch for price rallies to lock in contracts—FOB levels attractive on relative basis in India/Vietnam.
- For processors: Consider forward hedging; raw seed input prices should be secured as soon as possible.
- For end-users/feed: Tighten procurement before late-season surge; substitute demand emerging in food/feed sectors.
- Monitor: Weather, sowing progress, stock data releases, and futures positioning for new cues.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Ahmedabad Spot: Rs 52.5–54/kg (trend: upward)
- Jodhpur Spot: Rs 52.5–54/kg (trend: upward)
- NCDEX Futures: Rs 53–55/kg (trend: upward, high volatility risk)
- FOB India (Guar Gum): €4.15–4.25/kg (trend: firm, slight upside)
- FOB Vietnam (Guar Gum): €4.05–4.15/kg (trend: stable to modestly firm)
