The Indian guar seeds market is experiencing a wave of cautious optimism, underscored by a striking resurgence in export demand and an uptick in global industrial activities that enhance guar usage. Guar gum and seed exports hit a six-year high, with May 2025 alone seeing 3,000 tonnes shipped—the most since 2019. Leading this export boom is the hydraulic fracturing sector in the U.S. and China, but every segment from food processing to personal care and textiles is seeing expanded guar usage. Even recent geopolitical hiccups with Pakistan, which momentarily deflated prices by about $3 per quintal, couldn’t slow the bullish export trajectory. As soon as trade resumed, values snapped back.
Currently, prices fluctuate within a narrow $2.40–$3 range per quintal without committing to a breakout, but the market consensus is tilting bullish—especially with projections placing guar gum exports at 550,000 tonnes for 2025–26, an ambitious 12% lift from last year. Sowing progress is a wildcard: monsoon rains are awaited, and farmers—long known for their agility—are tentatively planting competing crops. The true acreage under guar will come clear only in July. Should plantings fall short, price momentum may quicken, fueled further by growing pharmaceutical demand and firm government support for exporters. For now, all eyes are on the monsoon, sowing data, and global oil price trends, which collectively promise a dynamic and opportunity-rich market landscape for the rest of 2025.
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/tonne) | Previous Price (EUR/tonne) | Week Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guar gum | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 4.06 | 4.06 | 0% | Stable/Firm |
| Guar gum | India | New Delhi | FOB | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0% | Stable/Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Exports: May 2025 guar gum exports reached 3,000 tonnes (highest since 2019).
- Current Export Year Projection: 550,000 tonnes guar gum for 2025–26 (+12% YoY).
- Demand Sectors: Hydraulic fracturing, food processing, pharmaceuticals, textiles.
- Competing Crops: Some acreage shifting to millet, green gram, and moth beans.
- India: Largest global exporter, strong government support, trusted suppliers.
📊 Fundamentals
- Stocks: No acute shortages, but tighter stocks if sowing slips below last year’s acreage.
- Sowing: Dependent on July monsoon; millet and green gram planted in early rains.
- Last Year’s Crop: ~1.7 million bags; similar or lower output likely to push prices up €4.40–€5.50/tonne.
- Exports Growth: Projected 5–10% annualized, could rise further with chemical sector uptake.
- Border Impact: Short-lived, with prompt price recovery post-unrest.
🌦️ Weather & Sowing Outlook
- Weather: Monsoon onset delayed in Rajasthan and Haryana—the key guar belts. Current rainfall averages 15–20% below June’s average, per Indian Meteorological Department updates.
- Impacts: Sowing lagging; robust rains in July are essential for timely and healthy crop establishment.
- Risks: Prolonged dry spells may delay or reduce sowing, tightening 2025 harvest supplies.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Overview
| Country | 2024–25 Production (est.) | 2023–24 Production | Stocks Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1.65–1.75 million bags | 1.7 million bags | Firm/stable; could tighten on reduced acreage |
| Pakistan | Low, import-reliant | Low, import-reliant | Stable demand |
| USA & China | Minimal (primary importers) | Minimal | Import dependency rising |
📌 Market Drivers
- High crude oil prices spurring hydraulic fracturing (key for guar gum demand).
- Rising demand from food, pharmaceutical, and chemical sectors.
- Potential acreage competition from millet and green gram.
- Firm government support for exports and global buyer trust in Indian suppliers.
- Weather uncertainty until July could shift supply outlook quickly.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish undertone—expect increased volatility as monsoon data emerges.
- Watch for July weather: strong rains may ease price momentum, weak onset will fuel price gains.
- Exporters should aim to lock contracts amid robust global demand signals.
- Procurement by end-users recommended before sowing progress clarifies (to hedge weather and acreage risk).
- Monitor feed and chemical sector offtake for upside triggers.
- If sowing is on par or below 2024, prices could gain another €4–€6 per quintal quickly.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Current Price (EUR/tonne) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/tonne) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi FOB – India | 4.20 | 4.25–4.35 | Firm/Upward |
| Hanoi FOB – Vietnam | 4.06 | 4.08–4.13 | Steady/Firm |
