Guar Seeds Market Update: Acreage Expansion and Steady Prices Signal Calm Ahead

The Guar seeds market is currently experiencing a phase of remarkable stability, a stark contrast to the price volatility observed in late 2023. Rajasthan, India’s top guar-producing state, has reported a significant 39% increase in guar sowing as of July 14 compared to last year. This surge in acreage, backed by favorable monsoon conditions in critical districts such as Barmer and Jaisalmer, is encouraging farmers to ramp up production. Market experts project that this development, alongside healthy available stocks, is likely to keep guar prices steady over the coming months, at least until the fresh harvest commences in late September or early October.

Demand for guar gum from the oil and gas sector continues, but it doesn’t exhibit the sharp upticks needed to sway prices dramatically. Export interest remains solid but moderate, and the market is notably free from speculative-driven panic buying and sharp stock depletion seen last year. Analysts suggest that only a major weather event or an unexpected spike in export orders could disrupt the prevailing calm. With ample inventories and steady, measured demand, both producers and buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of the season.

📈 Prices

Product	Exchange/Market	Recent Price (USD/quintal)	EUR/kg (FOB)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Guar Seed	Indian Spot	108–120	–	Stable	Neutral
Guar Gum (VN)	Hanoi FOB	–	4.09	+0.02	Slightly Bullish
Guar Gum (IN)	New Delhi FOB	–	4.25	+0.02	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Acreage Surge: Guar sowing in Rajasthan up 39% YoY; expansion observed in Barmer, Jaisalmer.
• Crop Condition: Sowing supported by favorable monsoons; potential for above-average yields.
• Stock Levels: Ample stocks reported at processors and traders, avoiding supply crunch.
• Demand Dynamics: Oil & gas sector demand steady, but not enough to be a strong bullish driver; export demand moderate and stable.
• Historical Trend: Late 2023 saw sharp speculative spikes; current fundamentals more balanced, tempering upward moves.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory: In-country stocks are comfortable, with no pressure from domestic processors.
• Speculation: Lack of speculative activity supports price stability.
• Export Markets: Guar gum demand from international buyers at moderate levels, with no significant uptrend.
• Price Range: After 2023’s volatility, prices are consolidating within a narrow band.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Monsoon Update: Current monsoon patterns remain favorable across key guar-growing zones (Barmer, Jaisalmer).
• Short-Term Forecast: Scattered showers forecasted for the next 3 days; soil moisture expected to remain optimal for crop development.
• Potential Risks: Any abrupt shift towards prolonged dry spells or heavy flooding could impact yield projections and sentiment.

🌎 Global Situation

Country	2023 Production (est.)	2024 Outlook	Inventory Trend	Main Export Market(s)
India	1.3 million tonnes	↑ (due to higher acreage)	Stable	US, Europe, China (guar gum)
Pakistan	230,000 tonnes	Steady	Stable	China, Middle East
Others	~60,000 tonnes	Steady	Low	Regional

💹 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers can consider forward contracts at current stable prices; risk of major downside is limited for now.
• Exporters should monitor shipping inquiries and global oil/gas sector activity for signs of demand spikes.
• Domestic processors can maintain parity in their purchases but should build inventory before September if early harvest signals crop delays.
• Watch for weather updates and swings in the monsoon pattern as the only credible near-term disruptor.
• Speculators should remain cautious: with high acreage and stocks, fundamental drivers for a price rally are absent.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

Product	Exchange/Market	Forecast Price	Trend
Guar Seed	Indian Spot	108–120 USD/quintal	Stable
Guar Gum (VN FOB)	Hanoi	4.09–4.11 EUR/kg	Slightly Up
Guar Gum (IN FOB)	New Delhi	4.25–4.27 EUR/kg	Slightly Up