The guar seed market has witnessed a remarkable upward shift over the last week, fueled by a confluence of robust industrial demand, limited selling pressure, and macroeconomic influences. Major trading hubs like Jodhpur and Ahmedabad reported substantial price gains for both guar seed and guar gum, aligning with the resurgence in crude oil prices and speculative interest in futures. Despite this bullish sentiment in core products, guar churi—essential for animal feed—saw values decline due to waning demand from feed manufacturers. In contrast, Hisar maintained price stability, reflecting regional demand patterns from processing mills.
This recent price uptrend is drawing attention from market participants, given guar’s critical role as a raw material in industries ranging from food processing to oil exploration (thanks to hydraulic fracturing). The strong mill demand, low-offering posture by farmers, and an uptick in international oil prices (which boosts gum demand) hint at further volatility in the near term. Ultimately, these tight market conditions are fostering a cautiously optimistic outlook amid concerns over weather and supply variables in the weeks ahead.
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📈 Prices
| Market/Contract | Product | Range or Last Price (USD/100kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jodhpur (Spot) | Guar Gum | 114.60 – 115.80 | +1.20 | Strongly Bullish |
| Jodhpur (Spot) | Guar Seed | 60.70 – 61.65 | +0.60 to +0.90 | Supportive |
| Jodhpur (Spot) | Guar Churi | 33.60 – 34.20 | -0.60 | Bearish |
| Ahmedabad (Spot) | Guar Seed | 60.30 – 60.90 | +0.60 | Supportive |
| Ahmedabad (Spot) | Guar Gum | 114.60 – 115.80 | +1.20 | Strongly Bullish |
| Hisar (Spot) | Guar Seed | 56.40 – 57.00 | Stable | Steady |
| NCDEX (Futures, July) | Guar Gum | 113.40 (settlement) | +1.20 | Positive |
| NCDEX (Futures, July) | Guar Seed | 61.15 (settlement) | +0.20 | Supportive |
| Global (Brent) | Crude Oil | 74.00 (USD/barrel) | +1.00 | Supportive |
| Product | Location | Nature | Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guar gum | Hanoi, VN | Organic | 4.08 | 2025-06-21 |
| Guar gum | New Delhi, IN | Organic | 4.22 | 2025-06-21 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Strong demand from gum mills, especially amid increased offtake from the oil and gas sector (fracking demand).
- Farmers are showing limited selling pressure due to expectations of further price increases and tight carryover stocks.
- Exports remain firm and are likely to be supported by a rebound in oilfield activity, especially since the rise of crude prices enhances competitiveness for guar-based products.
- Weak animal feed demand has pressured guar churi, even as seed and gum values advance.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weather is critical: Timely monsoon arrival and distribution in Rajasthan (main producer) are being closely watched.
- Crop acreage will depend on rains in the upcoming weeks; any delay or deficit can sharply restrict supply growth.
- Global guar stocks remain tight after lower-than-expected Indian output last season.
- Speculators are holding net long positions on NCDEX, reflecting bullish expectations amid ongoing industrial demand.
- International prices at parity/firm with Indian FOB offers advancing, reducing arbitrage interest.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- The Indian Meteorological Department forecasts near-normal monsoon rains for Rajasthan.
- However, localized heatwaves and patchy rainfall may delay sowing in some districts, posing a short-term risk for acreage build-up.
- Northern and Western Rajasthan remain under moisture stress; precipitation expected to improve after three days, aiding planting recovery.
- Weather risk remains elevated; August development will be crucial for crop establishment and yield.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023 Output (t) | Stock Estimate (t) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~1,250,000 | Low | ~80 |
| Pakistan | 120,000 | Limited | ~15 |
| Others | 40,000 | Marginal | 5 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Hold stocks if possible, as monsoon uncertainty and strong export demand could drive further price gains.
- Exporters: Consider locking in forward contracts, particularly for gum, while global oil prices remain supportive.
- Feed manufacturers: Potential for short-term price relief in guar churi; monitor for buying opportunities as levels soften.
- Speculators: Stay bullish on near-term NCDEX contracts given weather and fundamental tailwinds.
- Buyers: Ensure timely procurement or hedge against further upside risk, particularly if monsoon progress disappoints.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Forecast Range (USD/100kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Jodhpur | Guar Seed | 61.00 – 62.50 |
| Ahmedabad | Guar Gum | 115.00 – 116.20 |
| Hisar | Guar Seed | 56.40 – 57.20 |
| NCDEX (July) | Guar Gum (Futures) | 113.50 – 114.90 |
