This season, the global onion market finds itself at a crossroads, with recent developments in Gujarat, India—the world’s leading onion exporter—casting a long shadow over international price trends. Surging sowing coupled with record production during the 2024–25 rabi season has caused prices to plunge, placing immense financial strain on thousands of growers. Responding swiftly, the Gujarat government has launched a substantial USD 14.94 million relief package under India’s Market Intervention Scheme (MIS), targeting nearly 90,000 farmers to mitigate income loss amid a classic crop glut scenario. At the same time, European and North African export prices have remained relatively stable, buoyed by differing regional dynamics. As global buyers eye the Indian market, the impact of this massive policy intervention, changes in local inventories, and a rising tide of processed onion product exports is set to ripple through supply chains worldwide.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Onions fried
crispy freid onions
FCA 3.42 €/kg
(from PL)
Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.28 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion powder
white
FOB 1.55 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Latest Market Quotes
| Product | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onions fried (crispy) | PL | Lodz | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2025-06-27 | 0.0% | Stable |
| Onion powder (grade-B) | IN | New Delhi | 1.28 | 1.30 | 2025-06-21 | -1.5% | Bearish |
| Onion powder (white) | IN | New Delhi | 1.57 | 1.59 | 2025-06-21 | -1.3% | Bearish |
| Onion powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 2.65 | 2.67 | 2025-06-21 | -0.7% | Bearish |
| Onion (fresh) | EG | Kairo | 0.78 | 0.79 | 2025-06-21 | -1.3% | Bearish |
| Onion flakes (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 5.20 | 5.22 | 2025-06-21 | -0.4% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India: Gujarat—93,500 ha sown (+74% y/y), estimated rabi output of 24.9 million quintals. Major oversupply has depressed farmgate prices.
- Farmer relief package: USD 14.94 million in direct aid, up to USD 602/farmer; eligibility for those selling to APMCs, capped at 250 quintals/farmer.
- Export pressure: Lower Indian prices could attract opportunistic global buyers, depending on export policy and quality.
- Processing segment: Onion powder and flakes prices showed minor declines, reflecting both raw material oversupply and limited export pipeline liquidity.
- Egypt: Fresh onion prices have softened, tracking Indian price trends, with Kairo FOB quoted at 0.78 EUR/kg (-1.3% w/w).
📊 Market Fundamentals & Official Interventions
- Government action: Gujarat’s intervention is one of the largest state-level market support schemes for onions in recent years.
- Registration: i-Khedut 2.0 portal open until July 15 for farmers seeking compensation.
- Long-term effect: While the aid supports immediate grower liquidity, it may not resolve structural overproduction without acreage controls next season.
- Recent trends: Compared to the previous year, prices remain well below average, with oversupply continuing to dominate sentiment.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis
- India (Gujarat): Current monsoon is progressing as normal, reducing post-harvest losses and supporting storage quality.
- Northern Hemisphere: Weather is generally favorable—no major extremes reported in other key exporters but watch for early signs of heatwaves.
- Forecast implication: Stable weather should prevent additional market shocks but could reinforce oversupply if storage losses remain low.
🌏 Production & Inventories: Global Snapshot
| Country | 2023/24 Production (est. million t) | 2022/23 Production (million t) | Export Status | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~24.9 (Gujarat rabi only) | ~14.3 (Gujarat rabi) | Lead exporter | High, supported by bumper crop |
| Egypt | ~2.6 | 2.5 | Key supplier to EU, Gulf | Stable |
| EU (aggregate) | ~6.2 | 6.1 | Net importer | Moderate |
| Pakistan | ~2.0 | 2.0 | Exporter (regional) | Normal |
| Bangladesh | ~2.3 | 2.3 | Heavy importer | Tight |
💡 Key Insights & Trading Recommendations
- Bumper supply and direct government intervention are capping downside risk for Indian onion growers, but mean weak farmer selling interest continues at current prices.
- European processed onion prices are stable, with minimal downward pressure due to Indian oversupply yet, though global buyers should closely monitor Indian export policy updates.
- Egyptian and EU-origin fresh prices continue to track slightly lower, in line with competitive global offers.
- Processors and re-exporters may find selective buying opportunities—especially in Indian-origin powder and flakes.
- Risk remains for further weakening if India’s storage conditions remain ideal and no export restrictions return.
- Short-term inventory build is likely in both India and Egypt.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Key Origin | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onions fried (crispy) | PL | 3.42 | 3.40 – 3.43 | Stable |
| Onion powder (grade-B) | IN | 1.28 | 1.24 – 1.29 | Soft/Bearish |
| Onion powder (white) | IN | 1.57 | 1.54 – 1.59 | Soft/Bearish |
