The past trading week was an uneventful one for the hazelnut market. With regard to the commodities market, there is still hardly any inflow into the market from farmers. Prices have therefore risen slightly, as a few larger deals (export market) have also been concluded and exporters are currently active as buyers on the market.
The market leader is still trying to put pressure on its suppliers and enforce its bid on the market. However, they have not yet responded.
Market lags behind in terms of sale
Apart from the individual large deals, the market is rippling along. There are always individual deals in the export and domestic market. The market is generally lagging behind in terms of sales figures compared to previous seasons. To put this into perspective, however, it must be said that the export figures have a certain offset due to the delayed start of the season and a comparison with the same period last year alone is therefore not so meaningful. It will probably take another month or two to catch up.
Restrained buyers
Exporters still have large gaps in their order books for the coming year. Buyers are still exercising restraint. This reluctance is also reinforced by the fact that the sales figures for the Christmas business are not in line with expectations overall, which is partly due to the warm autumn, but also to the economic uncertainty. It will therefore be interesting to see whether exporters will be able to enforce their price expectations on the industry. The issue of financing is becoming increasingly problematic for exporters. If this is factored in on a strictly commercial basis, the mark-ups over the season are enormous. As this has hardly happened in recent years, buyers are now reacting with a certain lack of understanding in many cases. Furthermore, the price lists of the individual exporters are still very heterogeneous. It is worth comparing.
Exchange rate
A look at the foreign exchange market also shows hardly any changes compared to the previous week. However, if we look at the last month, the Turkish lira has lost around 4% in value against the euro, for example. This is a gradual development, but it does not necessarily have to continue in the same way. The forecasts therefore assume a stable exchange rate. In the past, exporters had often factored in an increasing weakness in longer-term offers and thus a certain compensation for financing costs.
We do not expect the situation to change in the coming week. The hazelnut market leader is unlikely to change its behaviour. Farmers are likely to continue to hold back and the TMO will probably only become active with a tender in January. As there is no pressure from buyers either, next week is likely to be a quiet trading week, similar to this one.
Bullet points
- Commodity prices continue to rise slightly – restrained demand meets reduced supply
- The hazelnut market leader is endeavoring to exert pressure on its suppliers in order to push through its bid. So far with moderate success.
- Export price lists have remained stable this week, in some cases, we are seeing slight upward adjustments. Due to the heterogeneity, prices are on average statistically stable.
- Individual larger deals as well as smaller deals in the domestic and export markets are keeping demand alive.
- Financing costs are becoming an increasingly important factor.
- The Turkish lira is trending stable to slightly weaker in relation to the euro.