Hazelnut Prices Ease as Georgian Crop Enters Key Weather Window
Georgian hazelnut kernel prices soften slightly as harvest progresses under warm, humid weather, while Turkish FOB values stay broadly stable in EUR.
Prices
Georgian natural hazelnut kernels FCA Warsaw traded on 12 August at around EUR 9.0/kg for 11–13 mm, EUR 10.2/kg for 13–15 mm and EUR 10.6/kg for 15+ calibres, all slightly below last month’s indications, implying a modest 1–3% week‑on‑week softening in EUR terms.
Turkish conventional natural kernels FOB Istanbul are assessed near EUR 7.5–8.0/kg for 11–15 mm sizes, following a gradual easing through July and early August as export sellers adjusted to softer international values. Organic and processed Turkish hazelnut products FOB Izmir trade at a substantial premium, roughly EUR 18–23/kg depending on size and level of roasting or chopping, but these values have been broadly flat over the last week with only marginal upticks on some roasted lines.
The price spread between Georgian FCA and Turkish FOB conventional kernels therefore sits around EUR 2.0–2.5/kg, reflecting Georgia’s smaller crop, higher logistics cost into EU markets and persistent quality differentiation. Export data confirm that Georgia remains a much smaller but higher‑value supplier compared with Turkey, with hazelnuts accounting for around 6% of Georgian agri‑food exports and strong EU demand from Germany and Italy’s confectionery sectors.
Supply & Demand
Georgia is the world’s third‑largest hazelnut producer after Turkey and Italy, with production concentrated in western regions such as Samegrelo‑Zemo Svaneti and Guria. Hazelnuts are a key export crop for the country, generating roughly USD 100 million in export revenue and supplying mainly EU confectionery manufacturers.
Recent analytical work on Georgia’s export opportunities highlights that the country largely follows Turkish pricing, but has scope to capture additional market share in Russia, Armenia, Italy and selected EU destinations by offering competitive prices and improved quality. However, fragmented orchards, pest pressure and traditional production methods still constrain yields and uniformity.
Globally, Turkey remains the dominant player, regularly supplying over half of world hazelnut output, and its pricing and state purchasing policy continue to anchor Black Sea region values. With European chocolate demand stable and not in a strong growth phase, near‑term demand‑side support for prices looks limited; instead, premiums will hinge on relative crop performance and quality between Georgia and Turkey.
Weather & Crop Conditions (Georgia)
Over the next three days (13–15 August), key hazelnut‑growing areas around Zugdidi and the coastal belt near Batumi are forecast to see warm, humid conditions with highs around 27–29°C and intermittent showers or isolated thunderstorms. This pattern is broadly favourable for kernel filling but implies elevated disease and mold risk where drying and storage infrastructure are weak.
The moderate rainfall should not, by itself, threaten yields, but it increases the importance of careful post‑harvest handling to maintain export‑grade quality. Given earlier reports that Georgia’s sector still relies heavily on traditional methods and faces quality issues, any prolonged stretch of wet weather during harvest would quickly translate into higher rejection rates and potentially stronger premiums for clean, well‑dried lots.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Export orientation: Hazelnuts account for a material share of Georgia’s agri‑food exports, and EU demand, especially from Germany and Italy, is structurally firm, though not booming.
- Price leadership from Turkey: Analyses of Georgia’s export prospects note that local prices largely track Turkish benchmarks, underlining the central role of Turkish state‑linked purchasing and export offers in setting the regional floor.
- Quality and value‑addition gap: Georgian hazelnuts are still mostly exported in unprocessed form, missing the substantial price uplift from roasting and further processing, which can multiply value several‑fold.
- Logistics constraints: The existing pattern of collecting nuts in western Georgia, processing near Tbilisi and re‑exporting through Black Sea ports adds cost and complexity, supporting the current premium over Turkish FOB values but also making Georgian offers sensitive to freight and handling costs.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- Buyers (EU roasters and confectioners): Near‑term bias is slightly bearish; consider scaling in purchases on Georgian kernels only on dips, targeting EUR 8.8–8.9/kg for 11–13 mm FCA Warsaw and maintaining flexibility to switch to lower‑priced Turkish origin if Georgian quality premiums widen excessively.
- Georgian sellers: With current FCA levels already easing, defend offers with clear quality documentation (moisture, defect rates) and be prepared for small discounts for prompt, larger‑volume parcels. Delaying sales carries weather‑related quality risk if rains persist.
- Traders: The roughly EUR 2.0–2.5/kg spread between Georgian FCA and Turkish FOB conventional kernels offers limited arbitrage after logistics; focus instead on niche organic or processed segments where premiums are structurally higher and less volatile in the short run.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- Georgia kernels, FCA Warsaw (all calibres): Slight downward to sideways bias (‑0.5% to ‑1% potential) as harvest pressure builds and buyers resist higher offers absent a clear weather or quality shock.
- Turkey kernels, FOB Istanbul (conventional): Largely stable with a mild downward tone, tracking regional benchmarks; no strong catalyst for a rally over the next three days.
- Turkey organic and processed kernels, FOB Izmir: Sideways; premiums look well‑established and are unlikely to move sharply without a shift in European retail demand.