Hazelnuts at a Crossroads: Wide Turkey Price Gap, Limited Downside

The hazelnut market is entering a critical price discovery phase, dominated by an unusually wide gap between Turkey’s state purchasing price and much lower free-market levels. With harvest delayed and buyers still well covered, downside appears limited while the risk of a later-season upswing is increasing.

Momentum in European kernel prices has stalled after a sharp correction over the last six to twelve months, leaving levels well below last season’s extremes. At the same time, Turkey – the key origin – faces a delayed crop, a strong state support price of 250 TRY/kg for Levant quality and relatively weak immediate demand from exporters, many of whom remain well covered with old-crop stocks. How farmers balance liquidity needs against the incentive to sell to TMO will largely determine price direction into Q4 2026.

Prices

In the Turkish free market, in-shell hazelnuts from the 2026 crop are still trading around 175–190 TRY/kg, far below the TMO’s 250 TRY/kg Levant reference and implying a discount of roughly 32–43%. This spread has persisted longer than many market participants expected, despite the official TMO announcement and the start of the intervention buying program on 24 August 2026. 

Delivered to Central Europe (DAP, full truckloads), kernel prices are broadly stable week-on-week but remain sharply lower versus previous seasons. Organic kernels 11–13 mm are indicated around 7.72 EUR/kg, conventional kernels 11–13 mm at about 8.90 EUR/kg, with roasted kernels 11–13 mm near 11.07 EUR/kg. Haselnut paste trades around 5.75 EUR/kg. Over the last quarter, overall price performance is down roughly 8.75%, and versus twelve months, levels are more than 40% lower, underscoring how far the market has corrected from last year’s highs.

Recent offer data from Turkey confirms this soft tone: natural conventional kernels 11–13 mm FOB Istanbul are around 7.36 EUR/kg, with 13–15 mm at about 7.90 EUR/kg. Organic Turkish kernels ex-İzmir are substantially higher, in the 18–20 EUR/kg range depending on size and processing, while Georgian natural kernels FCA Warsaw trade closer to 8.90–10.50 EUR/kg, typically around 0.20 EUR/kg below comparable Turkish qualities. This confirms that alternative origins remain competitive but not dramatically cheaper for top grades.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish 2026 harvest is running roughly 10–14 days behind the normal schedule, mainly due to repeated rainfall that slowed drying in the orchards. Official regional calendars confirm that harvest in higher altitudes of the Black Sea region only begins between 22 and 25 August 2026, later than in many past years. 

So far, only limited new-crop volumes have reached the market, and early deliveries are not considered representative for final quality. Many exporters still hold comfortable old-crop stocks and have pre-covered a large share of their 2026 sales, in some cases using up to 90% of the available carry-over. This cushions immediate procurement pressure and helps explain why free-market prices have not yet moved up toward the TMO reference.

On the demand side, export appetite remains muted. Italy expects a stronger domestic 2026 crop of around 80,000 tonnes, reducing its import pull from Turkey, while Russian demand for Caucasian origins, especially Georgia, has weakened. Georgian kernels are currently offered around 0.20 EUR/kg below Turkish levels, but only lower-grade lots with quality issues (e.g. more than 5% internal mold) need to accept markedly bigger discounts. Better grades in Georgia and Azerbaijan are priced in line with Turkish product, limiting buyers’ incentive to switch origin.

Fundamentals & Risk Balance

The most striking fundamental feature is the gap between the TMO’s 250 TRY/kg Levant purchase price and free-market levels at 175–190 TRY/kg. Based on prevailing FX, this represents roughly a 30–40% premium for sales into the state system. TMO has announced buying capacities of up to 300,000 tonnes, and will operate via an appointment system, with payments typically made about 21 days after physical intake.

Farmer behaviour is the key uncertainty. Producers with sufficient liquidity and who can meet TMO’s quality criteria are strongly incentivised to hold back from the free market and prioritise TMO deliveries. However, many growers must pay labour and service costs immediately after harvest and may be forced to liquidate at lower free-market prices to access cash. This tension could initially keep sufficient volume flowing into the open market to stabilise prices in the short term.

Quality and size distribution of the new crop are still largely unknown. Growing conditions have generally been good, but opinions diverge on the share of small kernels, especially in western regions. Schéllability is another critical unknown: good shelling yields would limit by-product volumes, while poor shellability could generate larger quantities of roasted rejects and small pieces, exerting pressure on prices for fine dice and other preparations. Some processors have already nudged up prices for specific preparations in anticipation of such risks, although abundant lower-grade old-crop stocks still cap upside for pastes and lower specifications.

Competition from alternative origins continues to grow. Azerbaijan and Georgia remain slightly under Turkish offers for many items, and U.S. hazelnuts now also price below Turkish material for several grades, adding pressure especially on Caucasian exporters. Yet for European buyers, the relative price advantage of switching origin remains modest for high quality, and logistics and quality consistency continue to favour Turkey for many industrial users.

Weather & Harvest Outlook

Black Sea weather in August has been mixed, with enough rainfall to slow drying and contribute to the 10–14 day harvest delay, but without widespread reports of major frost or hail damage this season. Current official calendars show harvest in mid and high-altitude zones stretching into late August, implying that a more representative view of quality and size will only emerge in September. 

For the coming days, local forecasts for the main Turkish producing provinces point to variable cloudiness, moderate temperatures and scattered showers, conditions that could still intermittently slow drying and collection in higher-altitude orchards but are not yet seen as a major yield threat. Overall production expectations for Turkey are amongst the most optimistic in several years, supported by favourable flowering and fruit set earlier in the season.

3–6 Month Market & Trading Outlook

Given the combination of a strong TMO floor price, delayed harvest and comfortable old-crop cover, the near-term risk profile is skewed toward limited downside and growing upside potential over the next three months. A sharp further correction from current EUR price levels appears unlikely unless demand deteriorates significantly or harvest and quality data greatly exceed current expectations.

• Bullish drivers: large TMO premium versus free market, potential tightening of free-market supply if farmers prioritise state sales, later-season buying by the leading industrial processor (around Q4) and possible size/quality constraints for certain kernel fractions.
• Bearish drivers: very good crop prospects and sizeable carry-over stocks, increasing competition from alternative origins (Azerbaijan, Georgia, USA, Chile, China), and ongoing weak export demand in key destinations such as Russia and, to a lesser extent, Italy.

Strategic recommendations

• European industrial buyers: Consider covering an additional portion of Q4 2026 and early 2027 needs at current DAP levels, particularly for larger kernel sizes and high-quality natural and roasted product, while retaining some flexibility to benefit from any temporary dips during the peak harvest window.
• Exporters in Turkey: Carefully balance TMO deliveries and free-market sales to manage liquidity. Locking in higher TMO returns for suitable volumes while keeping optionality on free-market sales may reduce margin risk if prices begin to converge upward.
• Buyers of small kernels and preparations: Monitor shellability and by-product flows closely in September–October. If shelling yields disappoint and roasted rejects remain limited, current low prices for fine dice and paste could represent attractive medium-term value.
• Users considering origin diversification: Georgian and Azerbaijani offers provide only modest savings for top-grade product. Origin switches should prioritise quality and logistics reliability rather than chasing marginal price differences.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• Turkish FOB kernels (Istanbul/İzmir): Mostly sideways in EUR terms as the market digests first TMO purchases; mild firming bias for top qualities if free-market supply tightens slightly.
• DAP Central Europe kernels: Stable to marginally firmer, with most suppliers holding offers after the recent deep correction and watching farmer selling behaviour in Turkey.
• Caucasian origins (Georgia, Azerbaijan): Slight softening pressure for lower grades amid weak demand and competition from Turkey and the USA, while premiums for top-quality, low-defect lots remain relatively steady.