Hazelnuts Boom: Chile’s Crop Shift Fuels Export Surge & Market Stability

In a striking shift within the global nut markets, Chile is rapidly emerging as a powerhouse in European hazelnut production. As Chilean cherry growers adapt to a severe downturn—marked by a historic collapse in Chinese demand and stagnant exports—the hazelnut sector is benefiting from changing grower sentiment and soaring international interest. Driven by robust demand from leading confectionery giants and buoyed by climatic challenges in traditional supply hubs like Turkey and Italy, hazelnut exports from Chile have jumped nearly 590% in just seven years.

Most notably, between 2024 and 2025, exports tripled, and the surge continued into 2026 with exports up 750% year-on-year in January. The rapid expansion in planted area, already up to 49,263 hectares and poised to hit 70,000–75,000 in the short term, underscores a structural shift as hazelnuts outshine cherries in both producer appeal and export potential. This transformation is making Chile the world’s second-largest hazelnut producer, on a solid trajectory to claim top status. International markets like Italy, France, and even China are increasingly looking to Chile for premium hazelnut supply, underpinning remarkable market stability and a new era for the country’s tree nut portfolio.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Hazelnut kernels	TR	Istanbul (FOB)	Natural 13-15mm	10.42	11.04	-5.6	Bearish
Hazelnut kernels	TR	Istanbul (FOB)	Natural 11-13mm	9.84	10.45	-5.8	Bearish
Hazelnut kernels	TR	Istanbul (FOB)	Roasted, diced, 2-4mm	9.65	10.10	-4.5	Weak
Hazelnut kernels	TR	Istanbul (FOB)	Roasted, meal	8.65	8.80	-1.7	Stable
Hazelnut kernels GE	GE	Warschau (FCA)	Natural 11-13mm	11.80	11.95	-1.3	Stable
Hazelnut kernels GE	GE	Warschau (FCA)	Natural 13-15mm	12.05	12.20	-1.2	Stable
Hazelnut kernels	GE	Warschau (FCA)	Hazelnut kernels 15+	12.25	12.40	-1.2	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Chile’s hazelnut sector is booming: Exports soared from $73m (2018) to $505m (2025), tripling in just one year (2024–2025), with January 2026 exports up 750% year-on-year.
• Cultivated area expanded from 8,686 ha (2014) to 49,263 ha (2025). The key growing regions (Maule, La Araucanía, Ñuble) collectively dominate Chilean production.
• Main driver: Strong and resilient international demand, mainly from Europe (Italy, France) and rising interest from China.
• Leading food companies (Ferrero, Nestlé) increasing procurement from Chile.
• Chile is now the world’s second-largest producer—production >100,000 tons and rising.
• Expansion fueled by growers shifting away from cherries toward hazelnuts due to superior economics and lower labor demands.
• The market is structurally bullish on Chilean supply, with global stocks in traditional origins (Turkey, Italy) under pressure due to climatic issues.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Structural transition: Cherry downturn triggered a rethink; hazelnuts offer stability and scalability, requiring less labor and lower initial investment.
• Expanding planted area: Projected to reach 70,000–75,000 ha in 3–4 years, ensuring ongoing production growth.
• Strong demand base: Confectionery sector and strategic buyers (Italy biggest importer) underpin price support and longer-term contracts.
• Speculative activity is limited: Market driven mainly by genuine consumption needs rather than speculative positioning.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Impact

• Turkey and Italy: Recent years have seen adverse weather events (frost, drought), limiting yield recoveries and restricting global supply.
• Chile: Key regions in the center-south benefit from reliable climate and growing expertise, with high mechanization reducing climate risk and production volatility.
• 2026 outlook: Favorable growing conditions expected in Chile for the current season, supporting further output growth.

🌍 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025 Production (est., tons)	2025 Stocks/Reserves Trend	Recent Export Trend
Turkey	~630,000	Stable/Declining	Impacted by weather; slightly down
Italy	~120,000	Flat/Declining	Down
Chile	>100,000	Strongly up	Tripled (2024–2025), up 750% in Jan. 2026
Georgia (GE)	~50,000	Flat	Steady, moderately up

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Chilean hazelnut exports are poised for continued, robust growth—it’s a structurally bullish market for high-quality kernels.
• Price corrections in Turkish and Georgian kernels present buying opportunities; overall global kernel prices are off recent highs but likely to stabilize on renewed demand.
• Confectionery companies and processors should seek longer-term contracts with Chilean suppliers to secure premium product flows, given supply-side risks in Turkey and Italy.
• Importers diversify sourcing—Chile offers a reliable counterweight to traditional suppliers affected by weather volatility.
• Producers in Chile should scale up rapidly, as current momentum, mechanization advantages, and robust international demand support expansion forecasts.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region (Exchange/Market)	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg, 3 days)	Trend
Istanbul (Turkey, FOB 13-15mm)	10.42	10.30 – 10.45	Slightly bearish to stable
Warschau (PL, FCA, 13-15mm GE)	12.05	11.90 – 12.10	Stable
Istanbul (Turkey, roasted, meal)	8.65	8.60 – 8.70	Stable