Hazelnuts: Georgian Kernel Prices Ease as Weather Stays Seasonally Mild

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Poland are edging slightly lower but remain historically firm, while Turkish FOB offers are broadly steady. With seasonally warm but not extreme weather in Western Georgia and no immediate crop shock on the horizon, the short‑term bias for GE-origin kernels is mildly soft, especially on larger sizes. Spot trading is calm as buyers watch new‑crop development in Georgia’s Samegrelo and Guria regions and monitor Turkish export signals. Turkey continues to dominate global supply, but recent price strength and earlier export tightness have eased into a more balanced market, leaving European buyers with comfortable short‑term coverage. Weather forecasts for key Georgian hazelnut areas show warm, mostly dry to partly cloudy conditions over the next three days, supporting nut filling without acute heat stress. Overall, near‑term price risk tilts slightly to the downside, though quality differentials and organic premiums remain wide.

Prices

All prices converted to approximate EUR/kg for comparability (1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR; 1 GEL ≈ 0.34 EUR where relevant).

*Indicative: recent Georgian commentary suggests premium in‑shell prices of at least GEL 10/kg this season, implying firm quality premiums versus average lots.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the anchor of global hazelnut supply, having generated about USD 1.2 billion in export revenue in the first five months of 2026 despite lower shipped volumes, underscoring firm underlying prices and resilient demand. Earlier in the year, export tonnage fell roughly 31% year‑on‑year while export revenue still rose by 17%, signaling tighter supply conditions that pushed unit values higher.

More recently, however, market commentary points to a strong new Turkish crop and a gradual normalization of exports, easing some of the upward pressure and putting mild downward bias on FOB kernel prices from Istanbul. This is feeding through into European traded values, including for Georgian kernels delivered into Poland, where prices have slipped a few euro‑cents week‑on‑week across main sizes.

In Georgia, Samegrelo and Guria remain the core hazelnut regions, with planted area still expanding in Guria at the expense of other crops. Export data from earlier this year showed strong shipments and competitive unit prices near EUR 9–10/kg for kernels, which has supported processor margins but leaves limited room for further price appreciation in the very short term.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Georgia)

Weather forecasts for Zugdidi (Samegrelo), a proxy for Western Georgia’s main hazelnut belt, show daytime highs around 27–30°C and nights near 20–22°C over the coming 3–4 days, with a mix of partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and only light, scattered showers. These conditions are seasonally normal and supportive for nut sizing and kernel fill.

Medium‑term climate assessments highlight that Samegrelo and Guria enjoy favorable agro‑climatic conditions for hazelnut cultivation, though prolonged summer droughts can periodically pressure yields and quality. At present, forecast data do not indicate an acute heatwave or severe rainfall event for July 22–24, 2026, suggesting low immediate weather‑related upside risk for prices from Georgia.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Georgian kernels softening from recent highs: FCA Warsaw quotes for GE origin have eased by roughly 0.1 EUR/kg across key sizes over the past week, reflecting calmer nearby demand and competition from Turkish offers.
• Turkish export dynamics: After a period of tight physical availability and elevated unit values, expectations of a solid upcoming crop are weighing modestly on forward sentiment, especially on conventional kernels.
• Premiums for quality and organic: Organic and value‑added Turkish hazelnut products (blanched, roasted, chopped) continue to command substantial premiums over conventional FOB prices, implying that quality‑driven differentiation remains a key margin lever despite the softer tone in base grades.
• European demand steady: There is no fresh evidence of demand destruction in core EU confectionery and bakery applications; instead, buyers appear well covered in the short term and are using the recent stabilization to fine‑tune coverage rather than chase volume.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

Given the combination of normal weather in Western Georgia, expectations for adequate Turkish supply, and slightly easing spot prices, the near‑term directional bias for Georgian kernel prices is mildly bearish to sideways.

• Buyers (EU roasters, confectioners): Consider adding limited coverage on dips for Q4 2026 needs, especially for preferred GE origin sizes (13–15 mm, 15+), but avoid aggressive front‑loading as current price softness may persist if Turkish offers remain competitive.
• Georgian growers and shellers: Use current stability to lock in forward contracts for premium quality lots where possible; focus on strict quality control to capture the expected domestic and export premium over standard material.
• Traders: Short‑term, favor a cautious, range‑trading approach between Turkish FOB and GE FCA benchmarks; avoid heavy speculative long exposure until there is clearer evidence of weather‑related stress or unexpected policy moves in Turkey.

3‑Day Price Indication (Direction, EUR)

• GE kernels, FCA Warsaw (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm, 15+): Slight downward/sideways bias over the next 3 trading days, with moves likely limited to ±0.05–0.10 EUR/kg, barring surprise weather events or Turkish policy headlines.
• TR kernels, FOB Istanbul (conventional): Mildly lower tone expected as the market continues to digest strong new‑crop expectations and softer domestic reference prices.