Hazelnuts: Georgian Offers Ease While Turkish FOB Levels Stabilize

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Warsaw are edging slightly lower week‑on‑week, while Turkish FOB offers have paused their recent decline. The market is balancing improved forward crop expectations in Turkey with still‑firm industrial demand and quality concerns in some origins. Hazelnut trade flows remain dominated by Turkey, but Georgia has re‑emerged as a dynamic secondary origin with sharply higher export values in 2026, especially to Italy and the EU. At the same time, Turkish exporters face a complex mix of weaker export volumes, high domestic costs and lingering food‑safety scrutiny, all of which keep international buyers cautious but well supplied. With the 2026/27 Turkish crop expected to be substantially larger and Georgia’s output broadly stable, nearby prices are softening from earlier highs but remain underpinned by underlying consumption from confectionery and spreads.

Prices

All prices converted to approximate EUR/kg (rounded).

• Georgian FCA Warsaw prices are modestly softer for 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm, indicating adequate nearby availability and some buyer resistance at previous levels.
• Large Georgian 15+ mm has firmed, suggesting selective demand for premium calibres.
• Turkish conventional FOB kernels show a mild rebound after declines earlier in June, consistent with reports of weak exports but improving expectations for the 2026/27 crop.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the key global driver, with around 60%+ of world export value, while Italy and the Caucasus (including Georgia) provide complementary supply. Italian price benchmarks in June underline that Western European buyers still pay a premium versus emerging origins.

Recent analysis points to a forecast 56% year‑on‑year increase in Turkey’s 2026/27 hazelnut production, based on International Nut and Dried Fruit Council estimates. This larger Turkish crop, alongside stable to slightly higher output in Georgia and Chile, implies a more comfortable global balance than in prior tight seasons.

Nevertheless, Turkey’s export volumes in early 2026 were down more than 30% year‑on‑year, even as export value rose, highlighting high unit prices and demand rationing. Georgia, by contrast, has seen hazelnuts return to its top export group, with export value up over 60% so far in 2026, led by shipments to Italy and the EU. This supports firm interest in Georgian kernels despite recent small price corrections in Warsaw.

Fundamentals & Risks

• Weather & crop risk (Turkey vs Georgia): The global market remains highly exposed to Turkey’s Black Sea production zone, where adverse weather can quickly tighten supply. Current outlooks suggest an improved 2026/27 Turkish crop, easing immediate supply concerns but leaving the market sensitive to any late‑season weather shocks.
• Food‑safety and quality: Recent EU border notifications again flagged excessive aflatoxin levels in some Turkish nut consignments, including hazelnuts earlier in 2026. This keeps quality‑conscious buyers attentive to origin and lot‑by‑lot testing, which can favour reliable Georgian and Italian suppliers for specific applications.
• Costs & policy in Turkey: High inflation and repeated increases in Turkish agricultural support prices are sustaining relatively elevated domestic cost structures. While export prices have eased from peaks, they are still underpinned by these internal costs and the possibility of higher state intervention prices for the new season.
• Demand from confectionery and spreads: Major brand investments in hazelnut‑based spreads and chocolate continue to support medium‑term demand, particularly in Europe and North America, even if short‑term consumer down‑trading caps upside.

Weather & Regional Outlook – Georgia (Origin GE)

Weather in Georgia’s hazelnut‑growing regions (notably Samegrelo and Guria) has been seasonally warm with intermittent showers in late June, broadly favourable for nut filling and disease control when orchard management is adequate. (Based on regional meteorological updates and short‑range forecasts for western Georgia.)

No acute frost or heatwave events have been reported in the last few days, and the 3–7 day forecast points to continued moderate temperatures with scattered rainfall and no major extremes. This supports expectations for a stable 2026 crop volume around recent averages, in line with earlier global supply assessments that see Georgia as a steady, mid‑sized origin.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Near‑term price bias for standard Georgian kernels (11–13 and 13–15 mm) is slightly softer given recent declines and comfortable supply. Consider layering hedges and contracts on dips, especially for Q4 2026 coverage, while keeping some flexibility in case the large Turkish crop materializes fully.
• Premium & large calibres: With 15+ mm Georgian prices edging higher, premium calibres may tighten if confectionery demand normalizes into year‑end. Buyers relying on large kernels should secure a higher share of forward needs now, particularly from trusted Georgian and Italian suppliers.
• Sellers (growers, exporters in Georgia): Maintain offer discipline on quality‑certified lots and exploit any widening discount of Georgian FCA versus Turkish FOB quotes to win long‑term contracts in the EU. However, be prepared for downside pressure if Turkish new‑crop offers come in aggressively from late summer.
• Risk management: Given the structural dependence on Turkey and ongoing aflatoxin scrutiny, industrial users should diversify origin mix (Turkey/Georgia/Italy/Chile) where specifications allow and maintain robust quality‑assurance protocols within contracts.

3‑Day Price Direction (Focus: GE kernels ex‑Warsaw)

• Georgia kernels 11–13 mm, FCA Warsaw: Slight downward bias over the next 3 days amid adequate spot supply and recent minor price cuts; any moves likely limited to a few euro‑cents per kg.
• Georgia kernels 13–15 mm, FCA Warsaw: Sideways to mildly softer, with buyers testing lower bids but sellers resistant below current levels.
• Georgia kernels 15+ mm, FCA Warsaw: Neutral to slightly firmer, supported by selective demand for large calibres and tighter availability.
• Turkish FOB kernels (for reference): Broadly stable in the very short term, as the market awaits clearer signals on official intervention prices and more precise 2026/27 crop sizing.