Turkish Hazelnuts Hold Firm as New-Crop Weather Stays Supportive

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are broadly steady in late June, with only marginal softening in some conventional sizes and a still-wide premium for organic product. Local TRY-denominated farmgate prices remain underpinned by tight old-crop stocks and expectations of only a moderate rebound in 2026 production, keeping export offers in EUR well supported. The market enters the critical pre-harvest window with generally favorable but not excessive weather along the Black Sea coast, easing immediate frost and heat-stress concerns. At the same time, global demand from chocolate and confectionery remains solid, while high input costs and the Turkish Grain Board’s price policies continue to limit downside. For the next few days, prices are likely to trade sideways in EUR terms, though FX swings in TRY could quickly pass through into export offers.

Prices

Export offers for Turkish hazelnut kernels remain firm when converted into EUR. Trade price trackers put average Turkish hazelnut levels around the equivalent of EUR 8.6–9.0/kg FOB for standard qualities, reflecting a year-on-year gain of roughly 10–15% in USD/TRY terms, which translates into solid support in EUR despite recent FX volatility.

Domestic spot quotations in key producing provinces (Ordu, Giresun, Samsun) continue to hover near the upper band of the season’s range in TRY/kg, supported by tight farmer selling and relatively low on-farm stocks. Recent local price checks from mid-June show free-market inshell levels mostly aligned with state intervention thresholds, signaling that producers still have pricing power heading into the new crop.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, and current official crop expectations still point to only a modest recovery from the reduced prior season, leaving global availability structurally tight into 2026/27. Recent Turkish statistical updates show stable or only slightly higher permanent crop area under hazelnuts, indicating limited scope for rapid supply expansion despite favorable weather.

On the demand side, confectionery and chocolate manufacturers in Europe continue to report steady usage, and price-sensitive buyers are showing limited success in shifting away from hazelnuts due to product formulation constraints. Market analysis on processed hazelnuts indicates that Turkey’s pricing and intervention strategy effectively sets a floor under international prices, meaning any demand softness is met more by reduced volumes than by significantly lower prices.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Weather in key Black Sea hazelnut regions is seasonally mild, with 3‑day forecasts for coastal hubs such as Samsun pointing to daytime highs in the mid‑20s °C, moderate humidity and scattered showers. This pattern is generally favorable for nut fill and kernel development and avoids the extremes (heat waves or heavy storms) that could hurt yield potential at this stage.

No significant frost risk is visible in the short‑term outlook, and rainfall is expected to remain within normal ranges, which should support orchards without causing major disease pressure if growers maintain standard crop protection regimes. Overall, current conditions are consistent with a normal to slightly above‑average crop, reinforcing the picture of adequate but not burdensome supply for the coming marketing year.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Fundamental support comes from a combination of constrained supply growth, high production costs and state-backed price policies. Analytical work on the processed hazelnut market stresses that Turkey’s intervention and pricing framework has kept global processed hazelnut prices elevated relative to what demand alone would imply, particularly as energy, labor and input costs remain high.

Global hazelnut production outside Turkey has grown but still cannot fully offset a smaller Turkish crop, and recent sector outlooks suggest the global market is likely to stay structurally tight into 2026. For buyers, this means limited downside in benchmark kernel prices, while sellers continue to benefit from strong basis levels for higher-quality and organic product.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect mostly sideways price action in EUR for Turkish conventional kernels, with organic maintaining a wide premium. Any TRY volatility may translate quickly into adjusted FOB offers.
• Buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now, especially in key sizes (11–13 mm and 13–15 mm), while differentials versus alternative origins (e.g., Caucasus) still justify diversification.
• Sellers: Maintain offer discipline; current fundamentals and weather allow for holding strategies, but be ready to lock in when large confectionery tenders emerge, as this could cap further upside.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, TR)

• FOB Istanbul kernels (conv.): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR, supported by firm domestic TRY values and steady export demand.
• FOB Izmir organic kernels: Stable; limited spot liquidity but strong specialty demand keeps offers near current levels.
• Domestic Black Sea farmgate (Ordu/Giresun/Samsun): Stable; no major weather shocks expected, and farmers are not under strong pressure to sell ahead of harvest.