Turkish Hazelnut Kernels Edge Higher as New Crop Weather Stays Benign

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are firming modestly on FOB basis, with natural kernels up around 3–4% over the past week while roasted derivatives are stable to slightly higher. Domestic in‑shell prices along the Black Sea coast remain depressed versus the season’s highs, reflecting weak local demand, but export-grade kernels are underpinned by steady overseas interest and cautious new-crop risk pricing. In the Black Sea heartland (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon), spot farm‑gate hazelnut prices have retreated sharply from the record levels seen earlier in the 2025/26 season, with recent local reports citing free-market prices near TRY 160–195/kg versus peaks above TRY 300–350/kg earlier in the campaign. Despite this correction, exporters’ kernel quotations in EUR are holding firm, supported by still-tight global nut markets and positioning ahead of the 2026/27 crop. Weather in core orchards is seasonally mild with no immediate frost or heat stress, allowing market participants to focus more on price and demand dynamics than on short-term production shocks.

Prices

On 22 June 2026, Turkish FOB kernel prices in EUR (Istanbul, conventional) show a mild weekly uptick in most grades, led by natural kernels:

The widening spread between Turkish and Caucasian (Georgia-origin) kernels in Europe, where Georgian kernels are still trading at a noticeable premium, keeps Turkey highly competitive as a supplier of standard confectionery grades. Recent domestic media emphasize that free-market in-shell prices in Ordu and Giresun have fallen well below earlier season levels, in some cases under state support benchmarks, underscoring the divergence between local grower returns and export kernel values.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains by far the dominant global hazelnut supplier, with the Black Sea belt from Ordu through Giresun, Trabzon, Sakarya and Düzce accounting for the bulk of world supply. Local reports this week highlight that producers are uneasy about the price slide, yet early expectations for the 2026 harvest point to a broadly normal to slightly better crop, assuming weather remains supportive through July and August.

Demand from Europe’s confectionery sector appears steady but not exuberant, with processors and chocolate makers reportedly well covered nearby and more active on staggered forward coverage. Export agents note that some international buyers are waiting for clearer signals on official Turkish support policies and final crop size before committing to large-volume new-crop purchases. Meanwhile, a soft domestic economy and consumer pressure on prices keep local in‑shell demand subdued, reinforcing the discount between internal and export values.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Short-term weather across the core hazelnut strip (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon) for the coming week is forecast to remain seasonally mild, with daytime highs largely in the low-to-mid 20s °C and frequent but mostly light showers. This pattern is broadly favorable for nut fill and vegetative development, with no immediate indication of extreme heat or prolonged drought stress.

Recent agronomic commentary flags ongoing concern about pest pressure, particularly from brown marmorated stink bug ("kokarca"), but overall sentiment on potential 2026 output is cautiously optimistic, suggesting a production profile close to or slightly above the previous year. As a result, traders are currently more focused on price levels and currency moves than on weather-driven production risk.

Fundamentals & Policy

Turkey’s latest crop forecasts from official sources indicate a generally improving picture for perennial tree crops, including nuts, compared with recent years, thanks to better moisture conditions and targeted support measures. The Agriculture Ministry has also signalled that 2026 support schemes will be recalculated to reflect higher fertilizer and fuel costs, which could indirectly underpin growers’ revenue expectations and future price floors for hazelnuts.

Globally, anecdotal evidence from alternative origins such as the US (Oregon) points to tight local availability and occasional retail shortages, which, while not directly price-forming for Turkish kernels, reinforce the broader narrative of a firm underlying nut complex. In this context, Turkish kernels’ price competitiveness versus other origins and the EUR-TRY exchange rate will remain key variables for export flows into Europe and the Middle East.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Bias: Mildly bullish EUR-denominated FOB kernel prices, with scope for further 1–3% gains if Black Sea weather stays benign and growers resist further selling at current TRY levels.
• Buyers: Confectionery and paste users needing Q3–Q4 cover may consider layering in small-to-medium volumes in natural 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm, taking advantage of Turkey’s discount to Caucasian origins and still-muted export competition.
• Sellers: Turkish processors with limited free stock can justify slightly higher offer ideas, especially on premium sizes and organic kernels, but should remain flexible on nearby shipments while the market digests new-crop expectations.
• Risks: A sudden shift in weather (hail, heatwaves) or a more generous-than-expected official support and procurement program could quickly tighten farm‑gate supply and push kernels higher; conversely, weaker European chocolate demand would cap rallies.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (TR, FOB)

Based on current fundamentals, local weather forecasts and recent trading ranges, the directional outlook for Turkish FOB hazelnut kernels over the next three trading days is as follows: