Turkish Hazelnuts Edge Higher as Weather Supports 2026 Crop

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are edging higher, with natural kernels up around 4–5% week‑on‑week in EUR terms, supported by firm export demand and generally favorable Black Sea weather. Processed products are mixed, while organic premiums remain very wide but stable. The market tone in Turkey is cautiously bullish as buyers refocus on 2026/27 crop supply and try to secure volume ahead of the main harvest period. Spot FOB Istanbul prices for natural hazelnut kernels have firmed moderately in early July, reflecting stronger inquiries from European confectionery users and ongoing tightness in alternative origins. Recent weather across the core Black Sea belt has been warm with adequate moisture, helping nut fill and reducing immediate supply fears, although participants remain wary of any heat spikes or localized storms in the coming weeks. With no fresh policy signals from state agencies, pricing is driven mainly by private exporters and farmer expectations.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR/kg using ~1.00 EUR = 1.00 USD for simplicity; focus is on relative moves.

Private exporter quotes from Black Sea processors confirm a firm undertone for in‑shell and kernel hazelnuts, with list prices held steady to slightly higher into 07 July 2026 as sellers test buyers’ willingness at higher levels. Traded sample prices tracked by a global platform show Turkish raw hazelnut offers around 19–20 EUR/kg on a mixed‑spec basis in late June, indicating continued support from international demand despite earlier seasonal lows.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, with the core production belt stretching along the Black Sea from Ordu eastwards and newer areas in the western Black Sea. Latest industry data point to solid 2025/26 world hazelnut production and relatively ample global stocks, but exports from Turkey earlier in the season ran below last year, highlighting some demand rationing at previous higher prices.

European confectionery demand is gradually improving as manufacturers rebuild coverage, supported by robust overall EU agri‑food market fundamentals despite margin pressure from high inputs. At the same time, reports from North America indicate strong structural offtake from major brands, with some buyers aggressively competing for non‑Turkish supply, effectively tightening availability from secondary origins and indirectly supporting Turkish export values.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Weather in the key eastern Black Sea hazelnut provinces around Ordu over 08–10 July 2026 is forecast mostly sunny to partly cloudy, warm and humid, with daytime highs around 28–29°C and overnight lows 18–21°C. This is broadly favorable for nut filling at the current phenological stage and does not suggest acute short‑term stress.

A specialized agricultural weather briefing on 06 July highlighted that current conditions across the main Turkish hazelnut belt are supportive, with adequate soil moisture and no widespread frost or wind damage, while emphasizing that July–August weather will remain critical for final yield formation. With no major adverse events reported in the last few days, near‑term production risk is viewed as moderate and largely weather‑dependent.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export pace and inquiries: Trade platforms and exporter updates suggest renewed interest from EU buyers at current levels, after in‑shell prices hit multi‑month lows earlier in the year and then stabilized.
• Global demand from confectionery: Cocoa‑related price volatility and supply concerns are encouraging chocolate and spread manufacturers to secure strategic hazelnut coverage, especially for value‑added products such as spreads and pralines, underpinning kernel demand.
• Policy backdrop: There have been no new intervention price announcements or large‑scale state buying programs in Turkey in the past few days, leaving price discovery largely to private exporters and farmer bargaining power.
• Competing origins: Secondary suppliers (e.g. Georgia, EU orchards) offer higher‑priced kernels into Europe, but recent anecdotal evidence of tight availability in consumer markets outside Turkey suggests that a significant share of premium origin supply is already booked by large brands, indirectly supporting Turkish competitiveness.

3–10 Day Outlook & Trading Implications

In the absence of immediate weather shocks or policy interventions, the short‑term balance for Turkish hazelnuts looks mildly supportive. Stable‑to‑firm global demand, a constructive weather pattern and limited farmer selling at current levels are likely to keep FOB prices in an upward‑biased range through mid‑July.

Trading Outlook

• European buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 kernel needs on any small dips back towards early‑July levels, as weather and crop headlines during July–August could trigger additional risk premiums.
• Turkish growers: With kernel prices having recovered from earlier lows, gradual sales into current strength may be prudent, while retaining some unpriced volume until clearer indications of final yield and any potential support measures emerge.
• Industrial users (global): For products where reformulation flexibility is limited (e.g. branded spreads), prioritize securing core hazelnut coverage rather than waiting for significantly lower prices, given firm underlying demand and the risk of localized weather issues later in the summer.

3‑Day Price Direction (Turkey, kernels FOB)

• Istanbul – natural kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Bias: steady to slightly firmer over the next 3 days, with any fresh export inquiries or supportive weather news likely to be met by modest seller price increases.
• Istanbul – roasted kernels (meal, diced): Bias: mostly steady; processing margins and demand from ingredient users appear balanced, with some limited downside risk in meal if demand softens.
• İzmir – organic kernels and processed: Bias: steady; organic premiums remain high, but no strong signals of either tightening or loosening supply in the very short term.