Hazelnut Prices Ease Slightly as Larger Turkish Crop Looms
Hazelnut prices in Turkey and Georgia ease slightly as a larger 2026/27 Turkish crop looms. See current EUR price levels, fundamentals and 3‑day outlook.
Prices
Prices below convert current offers and market indications into EUR using an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR.
Global reference export prices for hazelnuts from Turkey are around US$9.4/kg (≈ €8.75/kg) on a unit-value basis, confirming the premium positioning of the Black Sea region in world trade.
Supply & Demand (TR, GE)
Turkey remains the key driver: it supplied about 63% of global hazelnut exports in 2024 and continues to post strong export revenues in 2026 despite lower shipped volumes, underlining robust pricing power. Export revenues reached roughly US$1.2 billion in January–May 2026, with earlier months marked by a 31% drop in volume but a 17% rise in value, indicating tight supply and higher prices.
Forward-looking supply sentiment has turned slightly more comfortable. Recent analysis suggests Turkey could harvest around 650,000–700,000 tonnes in the upcoming season, a clear improvement on last year’s weather-affected crop. This has eased concerns of extreme tightness, prompting some sellers to adjust offers lower to secure business before the new crop arrival.
Georgia remains a much smaller origin but has capitalised on high prices: from January to May 2026, its hazelnut exports reportedly generated nearly US$68 million, at an average export price near US$10/kg, keeping Georgian material at a premium to Turkish kernels. Demand from European chocolate and confectionery manufacturers is described as broadly stable, giving both origins a solid industrial base without the froth of speculative buying.
Weather & Crop Outlook (TR, GE)
In Turkey’s core Black Sea belt (Ordu, Giresun, Sakarya), recent local reports and market commentary indicate normal to favourable vegetative conditions into early July. While detailed daily weather bulletins are scarce, no new widespread frost or storm damage has been reported in the last few days, contrasting with earlier concerns that reduced the previous crop.
The improved crop expectation of 650,000–700,000 tonnes reflects largely benign spring–early summer weather, with adequate moisture and moderate temperatures supporting nut set. For the coming 3–7 days, short-range outlooks for the eastern Black Sea coast generally point to seasonally warm conditions with typical showers rather than disruptive extremes, suggesting limited near-term weather risk for Turkish orchards.
In Georgia’s western regions (Samegrelo, Guria, Adjara), where most hazelnuts are grown, conditions into early July are also reported as seasonally normal with no major new disease or hail events flagged in the past few days. Combined with the strong export performance earlier in 2026, this points to a reasonably healthy crop and sustained availability of high-quality kernels, albeit at elevated prices.
Fundamentals & Trade Flows
On the cost side, Turkish processors continue to face high input prices and inflationary pressure, but the recent softening of free-market in-shell prices in parts of the Black Sea region has taken some pressure off kernel offers. Local price lists from the main producing provinces show that spot farm-gate levels have retreated from peaks seen earlier this year, in line with the better crop outlook.
Internationally, unit export prices remain elevated compared with historical norms, sustaining margins for exporters but limiting demand surges in non-core segments such as niche snacks. Bulk demand from large confectionery buyers remains the key stabilising force, with no signs of major demand destruction. Longer term, structural demand growth in plant-based dairy and clean-label spreads continues to support the market, though such trends are secondary to the immediate 2026 crop recovery.
Georgia’s trade data underline its role as a premium niche origin. Higher average export prices versus Turkey reflect both product quality perceptions and smaller scale. At the same time, strong revenues in early 2026 encourage continued investment in orchards and post-harvest infrastructure, which should gradually increase competition for Turkish kernels in specific quality segments.
Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View
Trading recommendations
- Industrial buyers (EU confectionery): Use the current mild easing in Turkish FOB prices to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026, focusing on standard 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm kernels, while keeping flexibility for further hedging if the larger Turkish crop is confirmed.
- Premium/organic segment: Organic and Georgian-origin kernels remain tight and relatively stable; consider phased purchasing rather than waiting for significant discounts, as supply is less elastic and demand is resilient.
- Producers & exporters (TR, GE): With expectations of a larger Turkish crop weighing on forward sentiment, be prepared to adjust offer levels to stay competitive, but protect downside with minimum-price structures where possible.
3‑day regional price indication (directional)
- Turkey (TR) – FOB Istanbul/Izmir kernels: Sideways to slightly softer over the next three days, as buyers test lower bids ahead of clearer new-crop estimates.
- Georgia (GE) – kernels ex‑Georgia (FCA PL hubs): Mostly sideways, with only minor downward pressure; limited spot liquidity and strong earlier export performance should keep premiums intact.
- In-shell in Turkish Black Sea domestic markets: Stable to marginally weaker, reflecting comfortable near-term supply expectations and a lack of bullish weather surprises.