Turkish Supply Comeback Puts Hazelnut Prices Under Downward Pressure

Hazelnut prices are heading into a softer phase for the 2026/27 season as a strong recovery in Turkish and Georgian crops coincides with only stable global demand. Market attention is shifting from last year’s tightness and 30–35% price surge to how far kernel values may correct as new-crop volume becomes visible. After a year of weather-driven supply stress, the upcoming harvest is resetting the balance of power in favor of buyers. Turkey is expected to deliver a much stronger crop, while Georgia also anticipates good yields and stable quality. Despite this, Georgia’s exporters have posted very strong revenues so far in 2026, helped by higher prices and firm European demand. The key question for the coming months is how quickly international buyers will push for lower contract levels once Turkish new-crop offers fully emerge.

Prices

Last season’s 30–35% price increase, driven by reduced harvests in Turkey and Georgia, has clearly peaked. With supply improving, forward indications point to a meaningful correction, especially for standard quality kernels.

In Georgia, export data for January–May 2026 show an average hazelnut export price around USD 10/kg, roughly USD 3 higher than a year earlier, confirming how tightness supported values into mid-season. For the coming harvest, Georgian kernel prices are expected to ease to USD 9–10/kg, implying a decline of approximately 25–30% versus 2025 harvest levels, assuming quality remains comparable.

Turkish kernel offers for conventional material in late June are drifting lower week-on-week, reflecting expectations of a larger 2026 crop and easing global kernel prices after autumn highs. Premiums for Georgian origin remain visible in delivered Central Europe quotations, but are also under gentle pressure as buyers anticipate broader availability from Turkey and other smaller origins.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, Turkey is projected to harvest around 650,000–700,000 tonnes of hazelnuts this year, a clear improvement versus last season’s reduced crop. Given Turkey’s roughly 65% share of global output, this production rebound is the main driver behind the current bearish tone in international pricing.

Georgia also expects a good crop, with both smallholders and large orchards contributing to higher available volume. Product quality is forecast to remain close to last year’s level, so the downward price adjustment is primarily a function of increased supply rather than any deterioration in specifications. Other origins such as Azerbaijan and EU producers follow the same global price signal but remain price takers relative to Turkey.

Demand, particularly from European confectionery and chocolate manufacturers, is broadly stable. There is no strong evidence of structural demand destruction despite last season’s elevated prices. Instead, buyers have tended to optimize formulations and timing of purchases, delaying larger coverage in anticipation of softer new-crop offers as the Turkish harvest comes into focus.

Fundamentals & Georgian Export Performance

Fundamentally, the market is moving from a deficit-like situation in 2025/26 to a more balanced or slightly surplus outlook for 2026/27. The improved Turkish crop and solid Georgian harvest together increase exportable supply just as buying programs look to rebuild coverage at more attractive price levels.

Georgia’s performance so far in 2026 underlines how higher prices and tight supply translated into strong export revenues. From January to May 2026, hazelnut exports reached nearly USD 68 million, with an average export price near USD 10/kg. This is roughly USD 3/kg higher than in the same period of 2025, reflecting both improved quality perception and the global price spike. More recent trade statistics confirm that hazelnuts have climbed back into Georgia’s top export categories, with export values in early 2026 up more than 60% year-on-year.

As prices normalize with the new crop, margins for processors and exporters will depend increasingly on cost control, productivity in orchards, and access to higher-paying market segments. Stable or improving product quality, food safety assurance, and reliable delivery remain key to maintaining premiums over competing origins, particularly in Western European markets.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather in Turkey’s Black Sea hazelnut belt is entering the warm, generally stable summer phase. July conditions in coastal provinces such as Rize are typically warm and humid, with average daytime temperatures around the mid-20s °C and relatively limited extreme heat stress. These conditions are broadly favorable for kernel filling, provided that localized storms and disease pressure are kept under control through standard agronomic practices.

So far, there are no widespread reports of major weather damage or disease outbreaks that would materially challenge the current expectations of a strong Turkish crop. In Georgia, field observations point to a healthy nut set and good orchard conditions. Barring late-season weather shocks, both countries are on track to deliver above-average volumes for the upcoming marketing year.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, the dominant narrative is one of easing prices from elevated levels, driven by stronger supply but cushioned by stable demand and solid quality from key origins. The depth of the price correction will depend on Turkey’s final crop size, realized kernel yields, and the timing of European demand as buyers move to extend coverage.

Currency movements will also matter. A weaker Turkish lira would reinforce downward pressure on export offers, while any appreciation could slow the decline. For Georgia, exchange rate dynamics and logistics costs into the EU will shape how competitive Georgian kernels remain versus Turkish alternatives, especially in mid-range quality segments.

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners, industry): Consider gradually extending 2026/27 coverage on price dips as Turkish new-crop offers emerge, rather than front-loading all purchases. Focus on locking in high-quality Georgian lots where stable quality justifies a moderate premium over Turkish origin.
• Exporters & processors (Georgia, Turkey): Prepare for increased price competition and narrower margins. Emphasize quality differentiation, certification, and long-term contracts with key EU clients to support premiums as headline prices soften.
• Growers: Anticipate lower farmgate prices compared to last season’s highs. Prioritize yield and quality improvements, and where possible, explore forward sales or price-risk management tools linked to exporter contracts.
• Speculative participants: The risk-reward now tilts toward a further moderate downside in kernel prices, but sharp drops may be limited if any weather or quality issue emerges in Turkey. Avoid aggressive short positions without close monitoring of crop and currency news.

3‑Day Price Direction Snapshot (EUR)

• Turkey, FOB Istanbul kernels (conventional): Bias mildly lower over the next 3 trading days as market continues to price in strong new-crop expectations and slightly softer domestic reference prices.
• Georgia, FCA Central Europe kernels: Stable to slightly lower, with buyers increasingly resistant to last season’s high premiums as alternative Turkish offers soften.
• EU spot (Italy/Germany industry demand): Mostly stable for nearby deliveries, but forward contracts for 2026/27 likely to be negotiated at lower levels than 2025/26 peaks as supply confidence builds.