Turkish Hazelnuts Edge Higher as New-Crop Signals Stay Bullish

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR are firm to slightly higher, with organic grades in İzmir nudging up and conventional FOB Istanbul holding a mild downward bias as the market prices in a strong new crop and competitive supply from Georgia. The hazelnut market is entering the key pre-harvest window with Turkey still dominating global supply and exporters closely watching official crop estimates and reference prices. Recent market commentary indicates a broadly comfortable supply outlook for the 2026/27 season, with strong Turkish and Georgian crops set against only gradually recovering demand in Europe and stable offtake from major confectionery buyers. Weather across the Black Sea hazelnut belt is seasonally warm with no acute stress reported, keeping yield expectations intact. In this context, near-term price moves are likely to remain modest, with EUR levels driven more by lira volatility and exporter hedging than by immediate physical tightness.

Prices

Price indications (FOB TR / FCA PL, converted to EUR using ~1 EUR = 53.2 TRY and 1 EUR = 4.29 PLN).

Organic Turkish kernels in İzmir show a very modest firming over the last week, while conventional Turkish FOB Istanbul levels remain slightly softer compared with early July. Georgian kernels in Poland have eased by around EUR 0.1/kg, reflecting continued competitive supply and the influence of stronger Turkish availability on regional pricing.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the key driver for global supply and is entering the 2026 harvest with broadly positive crop expectations. Provincial agriculture directorates in core regions like Ordu and Giresun report that official yield estimation commissions are in the field, with no indication so far of major weather-related damage. Export statistics show that hazelnuts generated about USD 1.2 billion in Turkish export revenue in the first five months of 2026, underlining the sector’s strategic importance despite seasonally weaker shipment volumes compared with previous years.

On the demand side, recent market commentary points to only a gradual recovery in European industrial buying, with some chocolate manufacturers still substituting part of their hazelnut needs with other nuts. At the same time, Georgia’s record export performance and strong flows into the EU are weighing on regional prices and limiting upside for Turkish conventional kernels. Overall, the balance tilts towards abundant supply with only moderate demand growth in the near term.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Turkey’s national meteorological service projects seasonal to slightly above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall across much of the country, including the Black Sea region, for 25–31 July 2026. For hazelnut orchards in Ordu, Giresun and surrounding provinces, the current pattern is broadly supportive: warm and relatively dry weather at this stage of the season tends to favour kernel filling, provided earlier moisture conditions were adequate.

No major frost, hail or heat-stress events have been reported in the latest official updates that would meaningfully alter the positive crop narrative built through June and early July. As a result, market participants continue to assume a solid 2026/27 Turkish crop, reinforcing the gently bearish tone in conventional kernel prices and capping further short-term rallies in EUR terms.

Fundamentals & FX

Industry assessments highlight that Turkish exports in the current season are running well below last year, signalling that end-user demand has not fully recovered despite lower prices versus the 2025 peak. At the same time, global hazelnut production is expected to remain ample, with Turkey, Italy and emerging origins like Georgia contributing to a comfortable world balance in 2025/26 and 2026/27.

From a pricing perspective, EUR-denominated offers are also shaped by the Turkish lira’s weakness. The latest European Central Bank reference rate puts EUR/TRY above 53, meaning that even relatively small moves in the lira can translate into noticeable shifts for foreign buyers. Strong overall Turkish export performance and a still-challenged domestic macro backdrop encourage exporters to maintain aggressive pricing in foreign currencies, particularly for conventional grades, while organic segments retain a modest premium.

Outlook & Trading Strategy (3–5 days)

• Short-term price direction (TR, conventional): Mild downward to sideways bias as the market continues to price in strong Turkish and Georgian crops and awaits official support price signals.
• Short-term price direction (TR, organic): Slightly firmer tone, supported by steady European specialty demand and tighter dedicated supply chains; any rallies are expected to be gradual rather than sharp.
• Risk factors: Sudden weather anomalies in the Black Sea belt, unexpected policy interventions in Turkey (e.g. reference price decisions), or sharper-than-expected EUR/TRY volatility could quickly shift offer levels.

Trading recommendations

• Buyers (EU roasters, chocolate manufacturers): Consider covering near-term physical needs in conventional kernels over the next week while prices remain under mild pressure, but keep flexibility for the post support-price announcement period, when volatility may rise.
• Organic-focused buyers: Scale in gradually rather than chasing small daily moves; current offers in İzmir already reflect positive crop expectations without fully pricing in potential late-season weather risks.
• Turkish exporters: Maintain competitive EUR offers in conventional kernels to defend market share against Georgian supply, but preserve organic premiums where demand appears more resilient.

3-day regional price indication (direction)

• Turkey, İzmir FOB (organic kernels): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR as specialty demand and limited nearby supply support current levels.
• Turkey, Istanbul FOB (conventional kernels): Stable to slightly softer in EUR, reflecting comfortable supply expectations and competition from Georgian origins.
• Poland, Warsaw FCA (Georgian kernels): Slight downward bias as ample Georgian supply and strong Turkish crop signals weigh on regional prices.