Turkish Hazelnut Harvest Surprise Triggers Immediate Price Reset for Georgian Exporters

Premium hazelnut prices in Georgia are coming under immediate downward pressure as market participants react to confirmation of a significantly larger 2026/27 crop in Turkey, the world’s dominant supplier. Exporters and growers now expect new‑season offers to be set well below the exceptional price levels seen in 2025, with buyers already adjusting coverage strategies ahead of the Turkish harvest.

At the same time, Georgian processors stress that demand for high‑quality kernels remains firm, suggesting a widening price gap between premium and average‑grade material. Early indications from physical offers in Eastern Europe and Turkey confirm a softening trend, but not a collapse, as robust confectionery demand continues to underpin baseline consumption.

Introduction

Turkey, which typically accounts for about 65% of global hazelnut supply, is projected to bring a substantially larger crop to market in 2026 after weather‑ and disease‑related shortfalls in the previous season. Turkish production estimates for the new marketing year range roughly between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, well above last year’s output and sufficient to ease the tightness that pushed prices sharply higher in 2025.

Georgia, a key regional exporter of premium kernels to Europe, has so far benefited from strong prices, with average export values around USD 10/kg in January–May 2026, about USD 3/kg higher than a year earlier. Industry associations and traders now expect a correction as the scale of the Turkish crop becomes clearer, although most foresee a controlled adjustment rather than a steep downturn, given that demand from major buyers in Italy, Germany and other EU markets remains stable.

Immediate Market Impact

The immediate impact of the Turkish harvest outlook is visible in price expectations and offer behavior. Georgian industry figures report that the exceptionally high farm‑gate prices of 2025 are unlikely to be repeated, with new‑season premiums expected to move closer to historical averages as additional Turkish volumes come to market.

Forward indications suggest kernel prices for standard‑quality product in Georgia may settle around USD 9–10/kg, implying a decline of roughly 25–30% versus the 2025 harvest period, although high‑grade lots are expected to remain relatively well supported. On the Turkish side, FOB offers for natural kernels have already eased versus early July levels, signaling that exporters are positioning for larger exportable supply and heightened competition, especially into Europe.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Rather than physical bottlenecks, the key supply‑chain disruption is the abrupt shift from scarcity to relative abundance. Turkish exporters are preparing to move significantly higher volumes through Black Sea and Mediterranean ports, which could temporarily strain logistics around peak shipping windows but is more likely to manifest as aggressive offer activity and shorter lead times for buyers.

In Georgia, processors and shellers must now recalibrate procurement plans and inventory strategies. Stocks from the previous crop are reported to be largely depleted, but the prospect of softer replacement costs may encourage some buyers to delay coverage until clearer price signals emerge from Turkey’s first large export tenders. This wait‑and‑see stance can create short‑term liquidity stress for growers if local collectors widen bid–offer spreads ahead of the main harvest.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• In‑shell hazelnuts: Larger Turkish production directly increases availability of in‑shell product for cracking in destination markets, pressuring benchmark prices and influencing contract structures in Europe.
• Hazelnut kernels (conventional): Georgian and Turkish kernel prices are expected to adjust downward from 2025’s elevated levels as global supply normalizes, with standard calibers (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm) most exposed.
• Premium and large‑caliber kernels: While overall prices may soften, strong demand from chocolate and confectionery manufacturers for high‑grade kernels is likely to maintain a quality premium, supporting Georgian exporters focused on this niche.
• Organic hazelnuts: Organic supply from Turkey is also set to rise, but the relatively tight nature of this segment and certification constraints may limit the extent of any price erosion compared to conventional product.

Regional Trade Implications

Turkey’s stronger crop consolidates its role as price‑maker in global hazelnuts and is likely to translate into more competitive FOB offers to the EU, the Middle East and Asia. As Turkish exporters seek to clear larger volumes, price‑sensitive buyers in secondary markets may shift incremental demand away from smaller origins.

For Georgia, the adjustment presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, lower reference prices from Turkey compress margins and reduce room for further price increases after a strong export performance in early 2026. On the other hand, Georgian suppliers with a reputation for consistent, premium‑quality kernels – particularly into Italy, Germany and other high‑end confectionery markets – may use service, traceability and quality differentiation to defend market share even as headline prices ease.

Other origins such as Azerbaijan, Chile and the United States, which expanded output to partially offset prior Turkish shortfalls, may experience intensified competition on both price and quality. Smaller or higher‑cost producers could find it harder to place lower‑grade material without offering discounts to Turkish benchmarks.

Market Outlook

In the short term, volatility is likely as the market digests final Turkish crop figures, early yield reports and the first round of export pricing. Traders will closely track official production estimates, intervention buying decisions and the timing of major industrial tenders from leading confectionery groups.

For the 2026/27 season, the consensus emerging among analysts and industry stakeholders points to a normalization rather than a crash in prices: elevated 2025 levels are expected to correct, but underlying demand from chocolate, spreads and snack applications should keep the market broadly balanced. Quality differentiation will be critical; high‑grade kernels and certified organic product are likely to retain a premium even in a looser supply environment.

CMB Market Insight

The sudden confirmation of a much larger Turkish hazelnut crop marks a turning point for the sector after two seasons of tightness and elevated prices. For buyers, the shift provides an opportunity to secure forward coverage at more attractive levels, but timing and origin selection will remain key as regional price relationships adjust.

For exporters in Georgia and other secondary origins, the priority now is to defend value through quality, reliability and contractual flexibility rather than headline price escalation. Commodity traders should expect a more competitive, buyer‑driven market into 2027, with Turkish supply reclaiming the central role in global price discovery and setting the trading range for all other origins.