Turkish Hazelnuts Find a Floor as Market Awaits TMO Signal

Sentiment in the Turkish hazelnut market has brightened, with prices largely accepted at current levels and expectations turning cautiously positive for the second half of 2026. The key missing piece remains the official TMO intervention price, which is likely to set the floor for in-shell values and shape export dynamics into Q4. Trading activity is still seasonally quiet, but producers, exporters and industrial buyers increasingly anticipate a solid new crop and gradual recovery in chocolate demand. With 2026 harvest projections between 700,000 and 800,000 tons in-shell and expectations for sizeable public purchases, the market is shifting from a defensive stance to a more constructive, range‑bound outlook. At the same time, a clear split persists between firm premiums for high‑quality natural kernels and more competitive pricing for small-caliber processed products and paste.

Prices

Central European DAP indications show a mostly stable to slightly firmer tone on kernels and value‑added products. Conventional natural kernels 11–13 mm are quoted around 8.90 EUR/kg DAP, marginally down by 0.11 EUR/kg versus last week, while organic kernels of the same size are trading near 7.59 EUR/kg DAP, unchanged week on week. Roasted kernels 11–13 mm have firmed to about 12.67 EUR/kg (+0.43 EUR/kg), reflecting better demand for ready‑to‑use product.

Fine fractions remain under heavier pressure. Roasted kernels 2–4 mm are stable near 7.10 EUR/kg, while 0–2 mm material eases slightly to 6.16 EUR/kg (−0.09 EUR/kg). Hazelnut paste has edged higher to roughly 6.08 EUR/kg (+0.06 EUR/kg), supported by early restocking from confectionery buyers. Overall, the hazelnut complex is down around 2% week on week and roughly 15% over the quarter, but still up over 35% compared with three years ago, pointing to a market that has corrected from recent spikes without collapsing.

FOB export offers from Turkey corroborate the relatively steady tone: conventional natural 11–13 mm kernels are around 7.65 EUR/kg FOB Istanbul and 13–15 mm around 8.21 EUR/kg, only marginally softer than earlier in July. Organic kernel offers ex-Izmir are holding between 18.25 and 19.30 EUR/kg FOB depending on size, underlining the still‑wide organic premium.

Supply & Demand

The 2026 Turkish crop is increasingly expected in the 700,000–800,000 ton in‑shell range, consistent with recent global estimates pointing to a strong on‑year after the weather‑affected 2025 season. International forecasts now see Turkey approaching or even exceeding 800,000 tons, while other origins such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Chile and the USA are also signaling solid production potential, supporting abundant global supply for 2026/27.

At the same time, export demand is showing early signs of normalization. Turkish hazelnut export volumes fell sharply earlier in 2026, but higher prices sustained revenues; the current price retreat and improving crop prospects are now facilitating renewed coverage by chocolate manufacturers and nut processors. Domestic Turkish demand and the free market are expected to add further pull in Q4, complementing institutional and export flows.

The market remains structurally two‑tiered. High‑quality natural kernels suitable for premium chocolate and branded confectionery continue to attract firm demand and are likely to remain relatively tight, while small‑caliber kernels, industrial grades and paste are facing heavier competition from both Turkish carry‑over and alternative origins. Early offers from Georgia, which entered the market ahead of the TMO announcement, underline this intensifying regional competition and could cap upside on lower grades.

Fundamentals & Policy

The central short‑term driver is the pending intervention price from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). Market participants broadly expect a minimum support price between 190 and 260 TRY/kg for in‑shell hazelnuts, with purchases focused on higher‑quality product. Depending on realized crop size, public buying could reach at least 100,000 tons, while a major private buyer is contractually bound to acquire around 80,000 tons in‑shell at or above the TMO price. Together, these flows are set to anchor the market into the fourth quarter.

With a sizeable portion of 2025 carry‑over failing to meet export standards for natural kernels, these older lots are likely to be absorbed into processed streams such as small kernels and paste. This buffers availability for lower‑grade products but reinforces the relative scarcity of top‑spec, large‑caliber natural kernels. Large industrial buyers appear to recognize this dynamic, increasingly extending coverage into Q4 and beyond, while smaller and mid‑sized users stay cautious and buy hand‑to‑mouth.

On the macro side, the Turkish lira continues its gradual depreciation against the euro at roughly 15% per year, but with notably less volatility than in previous seasons. This relative currency stability, combined with firm hazelnut export earnings, supports producer price expectations and lessens the risk of sharp, FX‑driven swings in euro‑denominated kernel offers. Monetary policy is not expected to change abruptly in the near term, as elevated energy costs keep inflation risks on the radar.

Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

Short‑term weather in the core Black Sea hazelnut belt (Ordu, Giresun) is seasonally warm and mostly dry, with daytime highs in late July forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s °C and mild, humid nights. Such conditions are broadly favourable for kernel filling and maturation, provided soil moisture remains adequate and heat spikes are not prolonged.

No widespread frost or storm threats are indicated in the 10–14‑day outlooks for these regions. While localised showers and thunderstorms are possible, current forecasts do not point to a weather‑driven supply shock ahead of harvest. As a result, fundamental attention is shifting more firmly toward policy decisions and commercial demand rather than crop risk.

Trading Outlook

• Industry buyers (chocolate, confectionery): Current kernel prices are widely accepted as a workable base, and the risk balance favours gradual coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027, particularly for high‑quality natural kernels where structural tightness persists.
• Roasters and paste users: With plentiful small‑caliber material and carry‑over feeding into processed segments, buyers can remain more selective, but modest pre‑harvest coverage is advisable to hedge against a higher‑than‑expected TMO floor.
• Producers and exporters: Ahead of the TMO announcement, aggressive forward selling appears premature. A staged selling strategy around the official price release should help capture potential basis improvements, especially on premium grades.

Over the next three trading days, we expect a largely sideways to slightly firmer price bias on high‑quality natural kernels in euro terms, supported by the upcoming policy floor and steady restocking. Processed fractions and paste are likely to remain more range‑bound with a mild downside tilt, reflecting comfortable supply and active competition from alternative origins.