Turkish Hazelnut Prices Ease as Big 2026/27 Crop Looms

Spot Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are edging lower in late June, pressured by expectations of a much larger 2026/27 crop and still-sluggish export demand, while organic and value‑added products remain relatively firm. Short‑term, the market feels heavy, but stable weather in the Black Sea orchards limits immediate weather‑risk premiums. The Turkish hazelnut market is transitioning from a tight, high‑price environment into a more comfortable supply outlook. Export revenues in early 2026 stayed high but volumes fell, confirming that previous price levels rationed demand rather than signalling shortage. New crop expectations above 800,000 tons and supportive orchard conditions around Ordu–Giresun are now reinforcing a bearish tone. At the same time, policy‑driven price floors and inflation in Türkiye keep a wide gap between Turkish origin offers and some European consumer‑market prices, especially for conventional kernels.

Prices

FOB Istanbul conventional kernel prices (converted from USD to EUR at ~0.93) show a clear softening into 29 June 2026:

Organic kernels FOB İzmir remain much higher, roughly in the 16.9–21.1 EUR/kg range depending on screen size and processing, and have been broadly flat since 26 June 2026.

Supply & Demand

Recent industry estimates see Türkiye’s 2026/27 hazelnut crop at about 810,000 tons, up roughly 56% from 2025/26, signalling a strong recovery and ample exportable surplus if realized. Export statistics show that in the first four to five months of 2026, Türkiye generated close to 1.0–1.2 billion USD in hazelnut export revenues even as shipped volumes dropped more than 30% year‑on‑year, highlighting that high unit prices, not strong volume demand, drove earnings.

Earlier in the season, analysts flagged that the export‑to‑supply ratio had fallen well below the five‑year average, confirming structurally weaker demand at elevated price levels. With confectionery and ingredient buyers having largely covered nearby needs, current spot activity is selective. Turkey’s overall exports fell in May 2026, reflecting a softer external environment that also caps incremental hazelnut demand.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

In the core Black Sea hazelnut belt around Ordu and Giresun, late‑June weather is seasonally mild and stable. Hourly and daily forecasts from Turkish and international meteorological services for 29 June–2 July indicate daytime highs around 27–28°C on the coast, with moderate humidity and limited convective rainfall, and no widespread frost or extreme heat threats.

For this pre‑harvest window, such conditions are broadly neutral to slightly positive for nut filling and kernel quality, and they do not currently justify a weather premium in prices. The main risks now are localized storms and potential disease pressure, but no major, market‑moving weather event is on the immediate horizon.

Fundamentals & External Signals

• Global context: Prior reports pointed to a historic correction from the 2025 peak, with Turkish kernel prices nearly halving by late April 2026 and then grinding lower into June on weak demand and higher crop expectations.
• Policy backdrop: Turkish Grain Board (TMO) intervention and support prices continue to anchor a price floor for growers, contributing to relatively high processed‑hazelnut price levels versus where free‑market clearing prices might otherwise be.
• Destination markets: Consumer‑market prices in key EU destinations (e.g. Germany) remain significantly above Turkish export offers, indicating retailer and processor margins can absorb some further softening in origin prices without immediate end‑user price cuts.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Direction (next 1–2 weeks): Bias remains slightly bearish to sideways for conventional Turkish kernels as the market prices in a larger crop and lacks strong spot demand triggers.
• For buyers: Gradual scale‑down coverage on standard screens (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm) is favoured rather than aggressive front‑loading. Consider locking in a portion of Q4–Q1 needs if EUR‑based offers dip another 2–3%, especially for higher‑value roasted and diced specs.
• For sellers/origin: Given the heavier forward supply picture, maintaining price discipline above policy floors may require flexible payment terms and quality premiums, especially for low‑defect and traceable lots.
• Organic segment: Premiums are high but relatively steady; organic sellers can be patient, while buyers might negotiate on logistics and certification services rather than expecting outright price cuts in the near term.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR, TR FOB)

• Istanbul FOB conventional kernels: Slight downward bias (0–1% lower) over the next three days as sellers test demand with marginally softer offers.
• İzmir FOB organic kernels: Largely stable; premiums versus conventional expected to hold near current wide levels.
• Processed forms (roasted, diced, meal): Mild pressure, especially on diced, but no sharp moves anticipated absent a sudden shift in export buying.