Turkish Hazelnuts Hold Firm as New-Crop Weather Stays Favourable

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are broadly steady into late June, with only modest softening in some EU-delivered Georgian origins and a stable premium for organic Turkish product. Domestic Black Sea in-shell prices remain anchored by TMO intervention levels, limiting downside despite comfortable 2025/26 global supplies. Export-oriented FOB offers from Turkey are consolidating after earlier gains, while processors and buyers watch Black Sea orchard weather and await clearer signals on TMO’s 2026/27 pricing and sales strategy. Local free-market shell prices in Ordu and Giresun are hovering just above TMO’s reference levels, supporting kernel quotations for both conventional and organic product. Short-term, favourable weather in the core hazelnut belt and a lack of major supply shocks point to a sideways-to-slightly-firmer price pattern, with limited room for significant corrections before clearer new-crop yield indications emerge.

Prices

FOB Turkey prices for conventional natural kernels (11–13mm and 13–15mm) are holding near recent highs in local-currency terms, supported by firm in-shell levels reported across Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon and Samsun trade exchanges as of 26 June 2026. Recent bourse data show top-quality Giresun and Levant in-shell trading only slightly above the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) reference band of roughly TRY 195–200/kg, helping to stabilise export parity values.

Organic Turkish hazelnut kernels command a substantial premium over conventional, with recent international wholesale indications for premium Turkish kernels quoted on FOB terms at higher levels than the average domestic in-shell equivalent, reflecting strong demand from EU snack and confectionery buyers. Georgian-origin kernels delivered FCA into EU hubs remain discounted versus Turkish, but have eased slightly over the past week as sellers adjust to competition from Turkish new-crop expectations and softening logistics bottlenecks in Eastern Europe.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, with the Black Sea provinces of Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon and Samsun accounting for the bulk of production. Current 2025/26 industry projections show a comfortable, though smaller, world supply versus the previous season, after a sizeable Turkish crop in 2024/25 left relatively high carry-in stocks and allowed solid export flows through early 2026.

Recent trade reports confirm that Turkish exporters have maintained strong shipment volumes into the EU and other destinations, even as some buyers diversified into Georgian and Azerbaijani origins. Georgia’s hazelnut exports between August 2025 and February 2026 reached about 9.9 thousand tonnes to EU markets, underlining rising competition but still far below Turkish volumes. Demand from European confectionery, chocolate and plant-based spreads remains resilient, with no signs of major demand destruction at current price levels.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Late June weather across the Turkish Black Sea hazelnut belt is seasonally warm with intermittent cloud and showers. Short-range forecasts for key production districts around Giresun and Ordu show moderate temperatures and adequate humidity, supportive of kernel fill and reducing immediate concerns about heat or drought stress.

There are currently no credible reports of widespread frost, storm or disease events impacting the 2026/27 crop, in contrast to prior seasons when high-altitude orchards suffered significant weather-related losses. With orchards now approaching critical nut development stages, the absence of acute weather stress is mildly bearish for prices longer term but supportive of near-term stability as market participants wait for more precise crop estimates.

Fundamentals & Policy

Industry sources highlight that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) continues to underpin the market via minimum purchase prices and managed stock sales. The current in-shell intervention levels around TRY 195–200/kg for Levant and Giresun quality remain a key floor for farmer returns and export parity, effectively capping downside risk for kernels.

Global hazelnut balance sheets for 2025/26 suggest adequate but not burdensome stocks, with Turkey still accounting for the majority of world supply and carry-out. At the same time, incremental growth in competing origins (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Italy) and soft economic conditions in parts of Europe temper aggressive price rallies, encouraging a range-bound price environment unless a significant Turkish crop issue emerges later in the season.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–3 weeks): Expect a sideways bias in Turkish kernel prices, with organic and value-added (roasted, diced) products holding firm premiums and conventional kernels tracking TMO-supported in-shell levels.
• For buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now, especially for organic grades and large calibres (13–15mm, 15+), while keeping flexibility for potential post-harvest dips if the Turkish crop confirms as average-to-good.
• For sellers/processors: Lock in forward sales selectively where buyer interest matches TMO-floor-based pricing, but avoid over-committing ahead of clearer official crop estimates and any TMO announcements on 2026/27 intervention prices.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, TR Focus)

• Turkish Black Sea in-shell (Ordu/Giresun, domestic TRY, ex-farm): Stable to slightly firmer; prices expected to hover just above current TMO reference levels over the next three days.
• FOB Istanbul kernels (conventional 11–13mm, 13–15mm, EUR): Sideways; limited room for decline given TMO floor and steady export demand.
• FOB İzmir organic kernels (whole & blanched, EUR): Firm; premiums over conventional are likely to persist with tight certified organic supply.